League Two · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Barnet are favourites
Ahead of Grimsby Town on 30%. The model projects them to finish on 83 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 72.
Title chance
36%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Barnet8372–93Barnet: projected 83 points, likely range 72 to 93. Title chance 36%.
- Grimsby8271–92Grimsby Town: projected 82 points, likely range 71 to 92. Title chance 30%.
- Bristol Rovers7363–84Bristol Rovers: projected 73 points, likely range 63 to 84. Title chance 6%.
- York City7362–84York City: projected 73 points, likely range 62 to 84. Title chance 6%.
- Chesterfield7362–84Chesterfield: projected 73 points, likely range 62 to 84. Title chance 6%.
- Walsall7262–83Walsall: projected 72 points, likely range 62 to 83. Title chance 5%.
- Salford6958–79Salford City: projected 69 points, likely range 58 to 79. Title chance 2%.
- Oldham6858–79Oldham Athletic: projected 68 points, likely range 58 to 79. Title chance 2%.
- Fleetwood6756–77Fleetwood Town: projected 67 points, likely range 56 to 77. Title chance 1%.
- Swindon6756–77Swindon Town: projected 67 points, likely range 56 to 77. Title chance 1%.
- Colchester6656–77Colchester United: projected 66 points, likely range 56 to 77. Title chance 1%.
- Gillingham6454–75Gillingham: projected 64 points, likely range 54 to 75. Title chance <1%.
- Cheltenham6151–72Cheltenham Town: projected 61 points, likely range 51 to 72. Title chance <1%.
- Crewe6151–72Crewe Alexandra: projected 61 points, likely range 51 to 72. Title chance <1%.
- Rotherham5949–70Rotherham United: projected 59 points, likely range 49 to 70. Title chance <1%.
- Tranmere5747–67Tranmere Rovers: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 67. Title chance <1%.
- Shrewsbury5646–66Shrewsbury Town: projected 56 points, likely range 46 to 66. Title chance <1%.
- Accrington5544–65Accrington Stanley: projected 55 points, likely range 44 to 65. Title chance <1%.
- Newport5343–63Newport County: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 63. Title chance <1%.
- Exeter5343–63Exeter City: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 63. Title chance <1%.
- Crawley5343–64Crawley Town: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 64. Title chance <1%.
- Port Vale5242–63Port Vale: projected 52 points, likely range 42 to 63. Title chance <1%.
- Northampton4738–58Northampton Town: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 58. Title chance 0%.
- Rochdale4435–54Rochdale: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 54. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 72 | 77 | 83 | 88 | 93 | 36% |
| Grimsby Town | 71 | 76 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 30% |
| Bristol Rovers | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 84 | 6% |
| York City | 62 | 67 | 73 | 78 | 84 | 6% |
| Chesterfield | 62 | 67 | 73 | 79 | 84 | 6% |
| Walsall | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 83 | 5% |
| Salford City | 58 | 63 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 2% |
| Oldham Athletic | 58 | 63 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 2% |
| Fleetwood Town | 56 | 61 | 67 | 72 | 77 | 1% |
| Swindon Town | 56 | 61 | 67 | 73 | 77 | 1% |
| Colchester United | 56 | 61 | 66 | 72 | 77 | 1% |
| Gillingham | 54 | 59 | 64 | 70 | 75 | <1% |
| Cheltenham Town | 51 | 56 | 61 | 67 | 72 | <1% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 51 | 56 | 61 | 67 | 72 | <1% |
| Rotherham United | 49 | 54 | 59 | 65 | 70 | <1% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 47 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 67 | <1% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 46 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 66 | <1% |
| Accrington Stanley | 44 | 49 | 55 | 60 | 65 | <1% |
| Newport County | 43 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 63 | <1% |
| Exeter City | 43 | 47 | 53 | 58 | 63 | <1% |
| Crawley Town | 43 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 64 | <1% |
| Port Vale | 42 | 47 | 52 | 58 | 63 | <1% |
| Northampton Town | 38 | 42 | 47 | 53 | 58 | 0% |
| Rochdale | 35 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Barnet
- Grimsby
- Bristol Rovers
- York City
- Chesterfield
- Walsall
- Salford
- Oldham
- Swindon
- Fleetwood
- Colchester
- Gillingham
- Crewe
- Cheltenham
- Rotherham
- Tranmere
- Shrewsbury
- Accrington
- Newport
- Crawley
- Exeter
- Port Vale
- Northampton
- Rochdale
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 36% | 44% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Grimsby Town | 30% | 47% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Bristol Rovers | 6% | 31% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| York City | 6% | 29% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Chesterfield | 6% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Walsall | 5% | 29% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Salford City | 2% | 18% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Oldham Athletic | 2% | 16% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Swindon Town | 1% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Fleetwood Town | 1% | 12% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Colchester United | 1% | 12% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Gillingham | 1% | 7% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 0% | 4% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Cheltenham Town | 0% | 4% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Rotherham United | 0% | 2% | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 0% | 1% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 0% | 1% | 0% | 91% | 9% |
| Accrington Stanley | 0% | 1% | 0% | 89% | 11% |
| Newport County | 0% | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% |
| Crawley Town | 0% | 1% | 0% | 85% | 15% |
| Exeter City | 0% | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% |
| Port Vale | 0% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 18% |
| Northampton Town | 0% | 0% | 0% | 61% | 39% |
| Rochdale | 0% | 0% | 0% | 43% | 57% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Barnet+32
- Grimsby+26
- Northampton-4
- Rochdale-4
- Newport-4
- Exeter-4
How they got here6 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 15 | +13 |
| York City | 3 | 3 | 9 | +3 |
| Cheltenham Town | 4 | 4 | 14 | +3 |
| Walsall | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 |
| Grimsby Town | 6 | 6 | 11 | +2 |
| Fleetwood Town | 7 | 6 | 12 | +2 |
| Crewe Alexandra | 8 | 2 | 10 | +2 |
| Swindon Town | 9 | 2 | 14 | +5 |
| Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 4 | 10 | -6 |
| Gillingham | 11 | 11 | 23 | +12 |
| Chesterfield | 12 | 12 | 18 | +6 |
| Colchester United | 13 | 4 | 13 | -2 |
| Oldham Athletic | 14 | 5 | 14 | -9 |
| Salford City | 15 | 15 | 23 | +5 |
| Rotherham United | 16 | 13 | 17 | 0 |
| Northampton Town | 17 | 13 | 19 | -4 |
| Shrewsbury Town | 18 | 18 | 24 | +4 |
| Newport County | 19 | 2 | 20 | -17 |
| Exeter City | 20 | 13 | 20 | -1 |
| Accrington Stanley | 21 | 12 | 23 | -9 |
| Port Vale | 22 | 20 | 24 | -1 |
| Crawley Town | 23 | 15 | 23 | -6 |
| Rochdale | 24 | 19 | 24 | 0 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.