League Two · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Grimsby Town are favourites
Ahead of Barnet on 27%. The model projects them to finish on 85 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 76.
Title chance
39%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Grimsby8576–94Grimsby Town: projected 85 points, likely range 76 to 94. Title chance 39%.
- Salford8373–92Salford City: projected 83 points, likely range 73 to 92. Title chance 25%.
- Barnet8374–92Barnet: projected 83 points, likely range 74 to 92. Title chance 27%.
- Walsall7364–83Walsall: projected 73 points, likely range 64 to 83. Title chance 3%.
- Chesterfield7364–82Chesterfield: projected 73 points, likely range 64 to 82. Title chance 3%.
- Accrington6960–79Accrington Stanley: projected 69 points, likely range 60 to 79. Title chance 1%.
- Fleetwood6758–77Fleetwood Town: projected 67 points, likely range 58 to 77. Title chance <1%.
- Crewe6455–73Crewe Alexandra: projected 64 points, likely range 55 to 73. Title chance <1%.
- Cheltenham6354–72Cheltenham Town: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 72. Title chance <1%.
- Newport6353–72Newport County: projected 63 points, likely range 53 to 72. Title chance <1%.
- Shrewsbury6354–72Shrewsbury Town: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 72. Title chance <1%.
- Swindon6151–70Swindon Town: projected 61 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance <1%.
- Gillingham6051–70Gillingham: projected 60 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance <1%.
- Colchester6050–69Colchester United: projected 60 points, likely range 50 to 69. Title chance <1%.
- Tranmere5950–69Tranmere Rovers: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 69. Title chance <1%.
- Exeter5950–68Exeter City: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Port Vale5950–69Port Vale: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 69. Title chance <1%.
- Oldham5849–68Oldham Athletic: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- York City5647–65York City: projected 56 points, likely range 47 to 65. Title chance 0%.
- Northampton5647–66Northampton Town: projected 56 points, likely range 47 to 66. Title chance <1%.
- Bristol Rovers5546–64Bristol Rovers: projected 55 points, likely range 46 to 64. Title chance 0%.
- Crawley5041–60Crawley Town: projected 50 points, likely range 41 to 60. Title chance 0%.
- Rotherham4536–54Rotherham United: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 54. Title chance 0%.
- Rochdale4334–52Rochdale: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 52. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Town | 76 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 94 | 39% |
| Salford City | 73 | 78 | 83 | 88 | 92 | 25% |
| Barnet | 74 | 78 | 83 | 88 | 92 | 27% |
| Walsall | 64 | 68 | 73 | 78 | 83 | 3% |
| Chesterfield | 64 | 68 | 73 | 78 | 82 | 3% |
| Accrington Stanley | 60 | 65 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 1% |
| Fleetwood Town | 58 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 77 | <1% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 55 | 59 | 64 | 69 | 73 | <1% |
| Cheltenham Town | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 72 | <1% |
| Newport County | 53 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 72 | <1% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 72 | <1% |
| Swindon Town | 51 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 70 | <1% |
| Gillingham | 51 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | <1% |
| Colchester United | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 69 | <1% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 50 | 54 | 59 | 64 | 69 | <1% |
| Exeter City | 50 | 54 | 59 | 64 | 68 | <1% |
| Port Vale | 50 | 54 | 59 | 64 | 69 | <1% |
| Oldham Athletic | 49 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| York City | 47 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 0% |
| Northampton Town | 47 | 51 | 56 | 62 | 66 | <1% |
| Bristol Rovers | 46 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 64 | 0% |
| Crawley Town | 41 | 45 | 50 | 56 | 60 | 0% |
| Rotherham United | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 54 | 0% |
| Rochdale | 34 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Grimsby
- Barnet
- Salford
- Chesterfield
- Walsall
- Accrington
- Fleetwood
- Crewe
- Newport
- Cheltenham
- Shrewsbury
- Swindon
- Gillingham
- Colchester
- Tranmere
- Port Vale
- Exeter
- Oldham
- Northampton
- York City
- Bristol Rovers
- Crawley
- Rotherham
- Rochdale
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Town | 39% | 52% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Barnet | 27% | 58% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Salford City | 25% | 58% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Chesterfield | 3% | 34% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Walsall | 3% | 34% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Accrington Stanley | 1% | 20% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Fleetwood Town | 1% | 13% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 0% | 5% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Newport County | 0% | 4% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Cheltenham Town | 0% | 4% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 0% | 4% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Swindon Town | 0% | 2% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Gillingham | 0% | 2% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Colchester United | 0% | 2% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 0% | 2% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Port Vale | 0% | 2% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Exeter City | 0% | 1% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Oldham Athletic | 0% | 1% | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Northampton Town | 0% | 1% | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| York City | 0% | 0% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Bristol Rovers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 90% | 10% |
| Crawley Town | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 25% |
| Rotherham United | 0% | 0% | 0% | 45% | 55% |
| Rochdale | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 72% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Grimsby+35
- Barnet+23
- Salford+21
- York City-4
- Bristol Rovers-4
- Rochdale-4
How they got here12 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford City | 1 | 1 | 23 | +19 |
| Barnet | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 |
| Walsall | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 |
| Crewe Alexandra | 4 | 2 | 10 | +6 |
| Cheltenham Town | 5 | 3 | 14 | +2 |
| Grimsby Town | 6 | 3 | 17 | +2 |
| York City | 7 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
| Gillingham | 8 | 4 | 23 | +15 |
| Accrington Stanley | 9 | 9 | 23 | +3 |
| Chesterfield | 10 | 7 | 18 | +8 |
| Tranmere Rovers | 11 | 4 | 17 | -7 |
| Exeter City | 12 | 8 | 20 | +7 |
| Swindon Town | 13 | 2 | 18 | +1 |
| Newport County | 14 | 2 | 20 | -12 |
| Shrewsbury Town | 15 | 8 | 24 | +7 |
| Fleetwood Town | 16 | 6 | 18 | -7 |
| Bristol Rovers | 17 | 1 | 17 | -2 |
| Port Vale | 18 | 18 | 24 | +3 |
| Rochdale | 19 | 10 | 24 | +5 |
| Northampton Town | 20 | 13 | 23 | -7 |
| Oldham Athletic | 21 | 5 | 21 | -16 |
| Rotherham United | 22 | 13 | 23 | -6 |
| Colchester United | 23 | 4 | 23 | -12 |
| Crawley Town | 24 | 15 | 24 | -7 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.