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Live2015–2016

LaLiga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Barcelona are favourites

Ahead of Real Madrid on 45%. The model projects them to finish on 86 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 78.

Title chance

52%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Barcelona8678–93Barcelona: projected 86 points, likely range 78 to 93. Title chance 52%.
  • Real Madrid8577–93Real Madrid: projected 85 points, likely range 77 to 93. Title chance 45%.
  • Atlético Madrid7364–81Atlético Madrid: projected 73 points, likely range 64 to 81. Title chance 3%.
  • Real Betis6253–70Real Betis: projected 62 points, likely range 53 to 70. Title chance <1%.
  • Real Sociedad5951–68Real Sociedad: projected 59 points, likely range 51 to 68. Title chance <1%.
  • Villarreal5850–67Villarreal: projected 58 points, likely range 50 to 67. Title chance <1%.
  • Athletic Club5547–64Athletic Club: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 64. Title chance 0%.
  • Osasuna5344–62Osasuna: projected 53 points, likely range 44 to 62. Title chance 0%.
  • Sevilla5143–59Sevilla: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 59. Title chance 0%.
  • Rayo Vallecano4940–57Rayo Vallecano: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 57. Title chance 0%.
  • Celta Vigo4739–56Celta Vigo: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo Alavés4638–55Deportivo Alavés: projected 46 points, likely range 38 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo A Coruña4638–55Deportivo A Coruña: projected 46 points, likely range 38 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Elche4436–52Elche: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Levante4334–51Levante: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Valencia4335–52Valencia: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Getafe4033–49Getafe: projected 40 points, likely range 33 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Espanyol4032–48Espanyol: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Racing Santander3527–43Racing Santander: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Málaga3022–38Málaga: projected 30 points, likely range 22 to 38. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Barcelona788186909352%
Real Madrid778185899345%
Atlético Madrid64687377813%
Real Betis5357626670<1%
Real Sociedad5155596468<1%
Villarreal5054586367<1%
Athletic Club47515560640%
Osasuna44485357620%
Sevilla43475156590%
Rayo Vallecano40444953570%
Celta Vigo39434752560%
Deportivo Alavés38424651550%
Deportivo A Coruña38424651550%
Elche36404448520%
Levante34384347510%
Valencia35394348520%
Getafe33364045490%
Espanyol32364045480%
Racing Santander27313539430%
Málaga22263034380%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Barcelona
  • Real Madrid
  • Atlético Madrid
  • Real Betis
  • Real Sociedad
  • Villarreal
  • Athletic Club
  • Osasuna
  • Sevilla
  • Rayo Vallecano
  • Celta Vigo
  • Deportivo Alavés
  • Deportivo A Coruña
  • Elche
  • Valencia
  • Levante
  • Espanyol
  • Getafe
  • Racing Santander
  • Málaga
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Barcelona52%48%0%0%0%
Real Madrid45%55%0%0%0%
Atlético Madrid3%90%6%1%0%
Real Betis0%37%35%27%0%
Real Sociedad0%24%36%39%0%
Villarreal0%22%36%42%0%
Athletic Club0%11%28%60%0%
Osasuna0%5%17%76%1%
Sevilla0%3%12%83%2%
Rayo Vallecano0%2%8%86%5%
Celta Vigo0%1%6%88%5%
Deportivo Alavés0%1%4%87%8%
Deportivo A Coruña0%1%5%86%9%
Elche0%0%2%84%14%
Valencia0%0%1%80%18%
Levante0%0%1%78%20%
Espanyol0%0%1%70%30%
Getafe0%0%1%69%30%
Racing Santander0%0%0%30%70%
Málaga0%0%0%12%88%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Barcelona+47
  • Real Madrid+40
  • Sevilla-5
  • Athletic Club-5
  • Celta Vigo-5
  • Deportivo Alavés-5
How they got here9 matchweeks
Position by matchweekBARATMRMABETRSOSEVDEPATHCELVILDEOOSARACLEVELCRAYGETESPVALMLA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Barcelona114+3
Atlético Madrid227+3
Real Madrid314-2
Real Betis438+4
Real Sociedad5520+13
Sevilla6360
Deportivo Alavés727-4
Athletic Club8819+8
Celta Vigo9817+5
Villarreal10918-1
Deportivo A Coruña11512+1
Osasuna12514-5
Racing Santander131017-3
Levante14820+6
Elche151120-4
Rayo Vallecano161218-3
Getafe17919+2
Espanyol18218-16
Valencia191520-4
Málaga201620-3
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.