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Live2015–2016

LaLiga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Barcelona are favourites

Ahead of Real Madrid on 48%. The model projects them to finish on 84 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 75.

Title chance

48%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Barcelona8475–93Barcelona: projected 84 points, likely range 75 to 93. Title chance 48%.
  • Real Madrid8475–93Real Madrid: projected 84 points, likely range 75 to 93. Title chance 48%.
  • Atlético Madrid7162–80Atlético Madrid: projected 71 points, likely range 62 to 80. Title chance 3%.
  • Real Betis6556–74Real Betis: projected 65 points, likely range 56 to 74. Title chance <1%.
  • Athletic Club5950–68Athletic Club: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 68. Title chance <1%.
  • Sevilla5445–64Sevilla: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 64. Title chance <1%.
  • Deportivo Alavés5343–62Deportivo Alavés: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • Villarreal5343–62Villarreal: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • Espanyol5142–61Espanyol: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 61. Title chance <1%.
  • Rayo Vallecano5041–59Rayo Vallecano: projected 50 points, likely range 41 to 59. Title chance 0%.
  • Real Sociedad4839–58Real Sociedad: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • Levante4738–57Levante: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 57. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo A Coruña4637–55Deportivo A Coruña: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Osasuna4637–55Osasuna: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Celta Vigo4637–55Celta Vigo: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Racing Santander4031–49Racing Santander: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Getafe4031–49Getafe: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Valencia4032–49Valencia: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Málaga3728–46Málaga: projected 37 points, likely range 28 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Elche3729–47Elche: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 47. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Barcelona757984899348%
Real Madrid758084899348%
Atlético Madrid62667176803%
Real Betis5660657074<1%
Athletic Club5054596468<1%
Sevilla4550545964<1%
Deportivo Alavés4348535762<1%
Villarreal4348535862<1%
Espanyol4246515661<1%
Rayo Vallecano41455055590%
Real Sociedad39434853580%
Levante38434752570%
Deportivo A Coruña37414650550%
Osasuna37414651550%
Celta Vigo37414651550%
Racing Santander31354044490%
Getafe31354045490%
Valencia32364045490%
Málaga28323742460%
Elche29333742470%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Barcelona
  • Real Madrid
  • Atlético Madrid
  • Real Betis
  • Athletic Club
  • Sevilla
  • Villarreal
  • Deportivo Alavés
  • Espanyol
  • Rayo Vallecano
  • Real Sociedad
  • Levante
  • Celta Vigo
  • Osasuna
  • Deportivo A Coruña
  • Valencia
  • Getafe
  • Racing Santander
  • Elche
  • Málaga
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Barcelona48%51%0%0%0%
Real Madrid48%52%0%0%0%
Atlético Madrid3%83%11%3%0%
Real Betis1%57%28%15%0%
Athletic Club0%24%36%40%0%
Sevilla0%9%24%66%1%
Villarreal0%6%21%70%3%
Deportivo Alavés0%6%20%72%2%
Espanyol0%4%16%77%3%
Rayo Vallecano0%3%11%81%5%
Real Sociedad0%2%9%81%8%
Levante0%2%7%82%10%
Celta Vigo0%1%5%82%12%
Osasuna0%1%5%81%14%
Deportivo A Coruña0%1%5%81%13%
Valencia0%0%1%63%36%
Getafe0%0%1%61%38%
Racing Santander0%0%1%56%43%
Elche0%0%1%46%53%
Málaga0%0%0%41%58%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Barcelona+43
  • Real Madrid+43
  • Deportivo A Coruña-5
  • Racing Santander-5
  • Rayo Vallecano-5
  • Real Sociedad-5
How they got here5 matchweeks
Position by matchweekBARRMABETDEPATMSEVDEOESPATHRACOSARSOLEVGETRAYCELMLAVILELCVAL

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Barcelona114+3
Real Madrid213-1
Real Betis338+5
Deportivo Alavés425-1
Atlético Madrid5370
Sevilla6360
Deportivo A Coruña7512+5
Espanyol8212-6
Athletic Club9919+7
Racing Santander1010130
Osasuna11511-4
Real Sociedad121020+6
Levante13920+7
Getafe14919+5
Rayo Vallecano151218-2
Celta Vigo161417-2
Málaga1716200
Villarreal18918-9
Elche191119-8
Valencia201520-5
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.