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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Cavalry FC are favourites

Ahead of Forge FC on 20%. The model projects them to finish on 62 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 60.

Title chance

80%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Cavalry FC6360–63Cavalry FC: projected 63 points, likely range 60 to 63. Title chance 80%.
  • Forge FC6259–62Forge FC: projected 62 points, likely range 59 to 62. Title chance 20%.
  • Atlético Ottawa4444–47Atlético Ottawa: projected 44 points, likely range 44 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Supra du Québec4141–44Supra du Québec: projected 41 points, likely range 41 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Vancouver FC3737–37Vancouver FC: projected 37 points, likely range 37 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Inter Toronto FC3030–30Inter Toronto FC: projected 30 points, likely range 30 to 30. Title chance 0%.
  • HFX Wanderers FC2828–28HFX Wanderers FC: projected 28 points, likely range 28 to 28. Title chance 0%.
  • Pacific FC1515–15Pacific FC: projected 15 points, likely range 15 to 15. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Cavalry FC606163636380%
Forge FC596062626220%
Atlético Ottawa44444445470%
Supra du Québec41414142440%
Vancouver FC37373737370%
Inter Toronto FC30303030300%
HFX Wanderers FC28282828280%
Pacific FC15151515150%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Cavalry FC
  • Forge FC
  • Atlético Ottawa
  • Supra du Québec
  • Vancouver FC
  • Inter Toronto FC
  • HFX Wanderers FC
  • Pacific FC
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Cavalry FC80%20%0%100%0%
Forge FC20%80%0%100%0%
Atlético Ottawa0%100%0%100%0%
Supra du Québec0%100%0%100%0%
Vancouver FC0%0%0%100%0%
Inter Toronto FC0%0%0%100%0%
HFX Wanderers FC0%0%0%100%0%
Pacific FC0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Cavalry FC+68
  • Atlético Ottawa-12
  • Supra du Québec-12
  • Vancouver FC-12
  • Inter Toronto FC-12
  • HFX Wanderers FC-12
How they got here28 matchweeks
Position by matchweekCAVFORATLSUPVANINTHFXPAC

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Cavalry FC112+1
Forge FC212-1
Atlético Ottawa338+5
Supra du Québec437+1
Vancouver FC538+2
Inter Toronto FC637-2
HFX Wanderers FC737-4
Pacific FC868-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.