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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Cavalry FC are favourites

Ahead of Forge FC on 15%. The model projects them to finish on 64 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 60.

Title chance

85%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Cavalry FC6460–68Cavalry FC: projected 64 points, likely range 60 to 68. Title chance 85%.
  • Forge FC5955–63Forge FC: projected 59 points, likely range 55 to 63. Title chance 15%.
  • Atlético Ottawa4339–47Atlético Ottawa: projected 43 points, likely range 39 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Vancouver FC3734–42Vancouver FC: projected 37 points, likely range 34 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • Inter Toronto FC3228–37Inter Toronto FC: projected 32 points, likely range 28 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • HFX Wanderers FC3027–35HFX Wanderers FC: projected 30 points, likely range 27 to 35. Title chance 0%.
  • Supra du Québec3026–35Supra du Québec: projected 30 points, likely range 26 to 35. Title chance 0%.
  • Pacific FC1511–19Pacific FC: projected 15 points, likely range 11 to 19. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Cavalry FC606264666885%
Forge FC555759616315%
Atlético Ottawa39414345470%
Vancouver FC34363740420%
Inter Toronto FC28303234370%
HFX Wanderers FC27283033350%
Supra du Québec26283032350%
Pacific FC11131517190%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Cavalry FC
  • Forge FC
  • Atlético Ottawa
  • Vancouver FC
  • Inter Toronto FC
  • HFX Wanderers FC
  • Supra du Québec
  • Pacific FC
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Cavalry FC85%15%0%100%0%
Forge FC15%85%0%100%0%
Atlético Ottawa0%99%0%100%0%
Vancouver FC0%82%0%100%0%
Inter Toronto FC0%10%0%100%0%
HFX Wanderers FC0%6%0%100%0%
Supra du Québec0%4%0%100%0%
Pacific FC0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Cavalry FC+73
  • Atlético Ottawa-12
  • Vancouver FC-12
  • HFX Wanderers FC-12
  • Inter Toronto FC-12
  • Supra du Québec-12
How they got here21 matchweeks
Position by matchweekCAVFORATLVANHFXINTSUPPAC

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Cavalry FC112+1
Forge FC212-1
Atlético Ottawa338+5
Vancouver FC438+3
HFX Wanderers FC537-2
Inter Toronto FC637-2
Supra du Québec737-2
Pacific FC868-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.