CONCACAF Champions Cup · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Los Angeles FC are favourites
Ahead of O&M FC on 4%. The model projects them to finish on 0 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 0.
Title chance
4%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Forge FC00–0Forge FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Tigres00–0Tigres: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- CD Olimpia00–0CD Olimpia: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- CF América00–0CF América: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- San Diego FC00–0San Diego FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Pumas00–0Pumas: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Club Xelajú00–0Club Xelajú: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Monterrey00–0Monterrey: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Vancouver FC00–0Vancouver FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Cruz Azul00–0Cruz Azul: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Atlético Ottawa00–0Atlético Ottawa: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Nashville SC00–0Nashville SC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Real España00–0Real España: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 3%.
- Los Angeles FC00–0Los Angeles FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Defence Force00–0Defence Force: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Philadelphia Union00–0Philadelphia Union: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- O&M FC00–0O&M FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- FC Cincinnati00–0FC Cincinnati: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 3%.
- C.S. Cartaginés00–0C.S. Cartaginés: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 3%.
- Vancouver Whitecaps00–0Vancouver Whitecaps: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Sporting San Miguelito00–0Sporting San Miguelito: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- LA Galaxy00–0LA Galaxy: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- LD Alajuelense00–0LD Alajuelense: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Inter Miami CF00–0Inter Miami CF: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Mount Pleasant00–0Mount Pleasant: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Toluca00–0Toluca: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
- Seattle Sounders FC00–0Seattle Sounders FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 4%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forge FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Tigres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| CD Olimpia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| CF América | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Pumas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Club Xelajú | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Vancouver FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Atlético Ottawa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Nashville SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Real España | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3% |
| Los Angeles FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Defence Force | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Philadelphia Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| O&M FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| FC Cincinnati | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3% |
| C.S. Cartaginés | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Sporting San Miguelito | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| LA Galaxy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| LD Alajuelense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Inter Miami CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Mount Pleasant | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Pumas
- Monterrey
- Atlético Ottawa
- O&M FC
- Vancouver Whitecaps
- Sporting San Miguelito
- Seattle Sounders FC
- Forge FC
- Tigres
- CD Olimpia
- San Diego FC
- Vancouver FC
- Cruz Azul
- Nashville SC
- Real España
- Los Angeles FC
- Defence Force
- Philadelphia Union
- C.S. Cartaginés
- Mount Pleasant
- Toluca
- CF América
- Club Xelajú
- FC Cincinnati
- LA Galaxy
- Inter Miami CF
- LD Alajuelense
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas | 4% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Monterrey | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Atlético Ottawa | 4% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| O&M FC | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Sporting San Miguelito | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Forge FC | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Tigres | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| CD Olimpia | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| San Diego FC | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Vancouver FC | 4% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Cruz Azul | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Nashville SC | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Real España | 3% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Los Angeles FC | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Defence Force | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| C.S. Cartaginés | 3% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Mount Pleasant | 4% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Toluca | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| CF América | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Club Xelajú | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati | 3% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| LA Galaxy | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Inter Miami CF | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| LD Alajuelense | 4% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
No club’s title chance has moved by even a point since the season began — which this early is exactly what should happen.
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.