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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Flamengo are favourites

Ahead of Palmeiras on 25%. The model projects them to finish on 81 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 76.

Title chance

75%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Flamengo8176–86Flamengo: projected 81 points, likely range 76 to 86. Title chance 75%.
  • Palmeiras7772–82Palmeiras: projected 77 points, likely range 72 to 82. Title chance 25%.
  • Bahia6358–69Bahia: projected 63 points, likely range 58 to 69. Title chance <1%.
  • Athletico Paranaense6055–66Athletico Paranaense: projected 60 points, likely range 55 to 66. Title chance <1%.
  • Fluminense6054–65Fluminense: projected 60 points, likely range 54 to 65. Title chance 0%.
  • Cruzeiro5752–63Cruzeiro: projected 57 points, likely range 52 to 63. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlético-MG5549–60Atlético-MG: projected 55 points, likely range 49 to 60. Title chance 0%.
  • Santos5246–58Santos: projected 52 points, likely range 46 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • São Paulo5246–57São Paulo: projected 52 points, likely range 46 to 57. Title chance 0%.
  • Botafogo5045–56Botafogo: projected 50 points, likely range 45 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Coritiba4945–55Coritiba: projected 49 points, likely range 45 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • RB Bragantino4843–53RB Bragantino: projected 48 points, likely range 43 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Vitória4842–53Vitória: projected 48 points, likely range 42 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Corinthians4640–51Corinthians: projected 46 points, likely range 40 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Vasco da Gama4539–50Vasco da Gama: projected 45 points, likely range 39 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Mirassol4338–49Mirassol: projected 43 points, likely range 38 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Internacional4338–49Internacional: projected 43 points, likely range 38 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Grêmio3833–43Grêmio: projected 38 points, likely range 33 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Remo3529–40Remo: projected 35 points, likely range 29 to 40. Title chance 0%.
  • Chapecoense3125–36Chapecoense: projected 31 points, likely range 25 to 36. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Flamengo767881838675%
Palmeiras727477808225%
Bahia5860636669<1%
Athletico Paranaense5558606466<1%
Fluminense54576063650%
Cruzeiro52545760630%
Atlético-MG49525558600%
Santos46495255580%
São Paulo46495255570%
Botafogo45475053560%
Coritiba45474952550%
RB Bragantino43454851530%
Vitória42454851530%
Corinthians40434649510%
Vasco da Gama39424548500%
Mirassol38404346490%
Internacional38404346490%
Grêmio33353841430%
Remo29323537400%
Chapecoense25283134360%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Flamengo
  • Palmeiras
  • Bahia
  • Athletico Paranaense
  • Fluminense
  • Cruzeiro
  • Atlético-MG
  • Santos
  • São Paulo
  • Botafogo
  • Coritiba
  • RB Bragantino
  • Vitória
  • Corinthians
  • Vasco da Gama
  • Internacional
  • Mirassol
  • Grêmio
  • Remo
  • Chapecoense
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Flamengo75%25%0%100%0%
Palmeiras25%75%0%100%0%
Bahia0%74%0%100%0%
Athletico Paranaense0%50%0%100%0%
Fluminense0%40%0%100%0%
Cruzeiro0%18%0%100%0%
Atlético-MG0%10%0%100%0%
Santos0%4%0%99%1%
São Paulo0%3%0%99%1%
Botafogo0%1%0%98%2%
Coritiba0%1%0%98%2%
RB Bragantino0%0%0%95%5%
Vitória0%0%0%92%8%
Corinthians0%0%0%86%14%
Vasco da Gama0%0%0%77%23%
Internacional0%0%0%67%33%
Mirassol0%0%0%63%37%
Grêmio0%0%0%20%80%
Remo0%0%0%6%94%
Chapecoense0%0%0%1%99%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Flamengo+70
  • Palmeiras+20
  • Fluminense-5
  • Cruzeiro-5
  • Atlético-MG-5
  • Coritiba-5
How they got here26 matchweeks
Position by matchweekFLAPALATHBAHFLUCRUATLCORRBBSANBOTSOPVITCOIMIRGRMVASINTREMCHA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Flamengo1116+13
Palmeiras2111+9
Athletico Paranaense3312+5
Bahia417+2
Fluminense537+2
Cruzeiro6520+14
Atlético-MG7717+3
Coritiba8717+9
RB Bragantino91140
Santos101018+8
Botafogo11118-10
São Paulo12113-8
Vitória13315-10
Corinthians14517+1
Mirassol15420-10
Grêmio16817-3
Vasco da Gama17820-5
Internacional181120-2
Remo1916200
Chapecoense20220-18
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.