Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Flamengo are favourites

Ahead of Palmeiras on 14%. The model projects them to finish on 84 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 80.

Title chance

86%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Flamengo8480–88Flamengo: projected 84 points, likely range 80 to 88. Title chance 86%.
  • Palmeiras8077–83Palmeiras: projected 80 points, likely range 77 to 83. Title chance 14%.
  • Cruzeiro6662–70Cruzeiro: projected 66 points, likely range 62 to 70. Title chance 0%.
  • Fluminense6158–65Fluminense: projected 61 points, likely range 58 to 65. Title chance 0%.
  • Athletico Paranaense6157–64Athletico Paranaense: projected 61 points, likely range 57 to 64. Title chance 0%.
  • Bahia5955–62Bahia: projected 59 points, likely range 55 to 62. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlético-MG5652–60Atlético-MG: projected 56 points, likely range 52 to 60. Title chance 0%.
  • Santos5451–59Santos: projected 54 points, likely range 51 to 59. Title chance 0%.
  • RB Bragantino5147–55RB Bragantino: projected 51 points, likely range 47 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • São Paulo5047–54São Paulo: projected 50 points, likely range 47 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Coritiba4743–51Coritiba: projected 47 points, likely range 43 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Vasco da Gama4742–51Vasco da Gama: projected 47 points, likely range 42 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Botafogo4643–50Botafogo: projected 46 points, likely range 43 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Vitória4440–48Vitória: projected 44 points, likely range 40 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Mirassol4440–47Mirassol: projected 44 points, likely range 40 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Corinthians4440–48Corinthians: projected 44 points, likely range 40 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Grêmio4340–47Grêmio: projected 43 points, likely range 40 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Internacional4238–45Internacional: projected 42 points, likely range 38 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Remo3330–37Remo: projected 33 points, likely range 30 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Chapecoense2522–29Chapecoense: projected 25 points, likely range 22 to 29. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Flamengo808284868886%
Palmeiras777880828314%
Cruzeiro62646668700%
Fluminense58596164650%
Athletico Paranaense57596163640%
Bahia55575960620%
Atlético-MG52545658600%
Santos51535457590%
RB Bragantino47495153550%
São Paulo47485052540%
Coritiba43454749510%
Vasco da Gama42444749510%
Botafogo43444648500%
Vitória40424446480%
Mirassol40424446470%
Corinthians40424446480%
Grêmio40414345470%
Internacional38404244450%
Remo30323335370%
Chapecoense22242527290%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Flamengo
  • Palmeiras
  • Cruzeiro
  • Fluminense
  • Athletico Paranaense
  • Bahia
  • Atlético-MG
  • Santos
  • RB Bragantino
  • São Paulo
  • Coritiba
  • Botafogo
  • Vasco da Gama
  • Corinthians
  • Vitória
  • Mirassol
  • Grêmio
  • Internacional
  • Remo
  • Chapecoense
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Flamengo86%15%0%100%0%
Palmeiras14%86%0%100%0%
Cruzeiro0%91%0%100%0%
Fluminense0%52%0%100%0%
Athletico Paranaense0%39%0%100%0%
Bahia0%13%0%100%0%
Atlético-MG0%3%0%100%0%
Santos0%1%0%100%0%
RB Bragantino0%0%0%100%0%
São Paulo0%0%0%100%0%
Coritiba0%0%0%95%5%
Botafogo0%0%0%93%7%
Vasco da Gama0%0%0%89%11%
Corinthians0%0%0%77%24%
Vitória0%0%0%68%32%
Mirassol0%0%0%70%30%
Grêmio0%0%0%61%39%
Internacional0%0%0%49%51%
Remo0%0%0%0%100%
Chapecoense0%0%0%0%100%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Flamengo+81
  • Palmeiras+10
  • Cruzeiro-5
  • Fluminense-5
  • Athletico Paranaense-5
  • Bahia-5
How they got here32 matchweeks
Position by matchweekFLAPALCRUFLUATHBAHATLSANRBBSOPCORBOTVASVITGRMMIRCOIINTREMCHA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Flamengo1116+13
Palmeiras2111+9
Cruzeiro3320+17
Fluminense437+3
Athletico Paranaense5312+3
Bahia6170
Atlético-MG7617+3
Santos8818+10
RB Bragantino91140
São Paulo10114-6
Coritiba11717+6
Botafogo12118-11
Vasco da Gama13820-1
Vitória14315-11
Grêmio15818-2
Mirassol16420-11
Corinthians17518-2
Internacional181120-2
Remo1916200
Chapecoense20220-18
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.