Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated group stages
The race for AFCON 2027
12 nations are at 90% or better to go through, and 15 places are genuinely open, between 20% and 80%. The most open group right now: Grp. I. Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania are already in as hosts.
Group by group
Chances of going through
The top two of each group qualify. In a host’s group the host is already in, so only the best of the other three goes through.
Grp. A
Grp. B
- Egypt98%
- Angola90%
- Malawi12%
- South Sudan<1%
Grp. C
- Ivory Coast>99%
- Gambia89%
- Ghana11%
- Somalia<1%
Grp. D
- Kenyahost100%
- South Africa90%
- Guinea10%
- Eritrea<1%
Grp. E
Grp. F
- Burkina Faso90%
- Benin84%
- Mauritania24%
Grp. G
Grp. H
- Ugandahost100%
- Tunisia64%
- Botswana21%
- Libya15%
Grp. I
Grp. J
- Senegal98%
- Mozambique79%
- Sudan20%
- Ethiopia3%
Grp. K
Grp. L
- Tanzaniahost100%
- Nigeria35%
Each group is simulated on its own with the remaining fixtures played 8,000 times from the teams’ attack and defence ratings. Ratings start from every CAF result in the last cycle — the previous qualifiers, the 2025 finals and the World Cup qualifiers — because six games is too few to rate a national team on. A shown 0% means it did not occur in the simulations, not that it is impossible.