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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

FIFA Club World Cup · 2025 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Manchester City have won it

Settled — the remaining fixtures cannot change it.

Title chance

100%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Man City99–9Manchester City: projected 9 points, likely range 9 to 9. Title chance 100%.
  • Benfica77–7Benfica: projected 7 points, likely range 7 to 7. Title chance 0%.
  • Flamengo77–7Flamengo: projected 7 points, likely range 7 to 7. Title chance 0%.
  • Inter77–7Inter: projected 7 points, likely range 7 to 7. Title chance 0%.
  • Dortmund77–7Borussia Dortmund: projected 7 points, likely range 7 to 7. Title chance 0%.
  • Real Madrid77–7Real Madrid: projected 7 points, likely range 7 to 7. Title chance 0%.
  • PSG66–6Paris Saint-Germain: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 0%.
  • Botafogo66–6Botafogo: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlético Madrid66–6Atlético Madrid: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 0%.
  • Bayern München66–6Bayern München: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 0%.
  • Chelsea66–6Chelsea: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 0%.
  • Juventus66–6Juventus: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 0%.
  • Palmeiras55–5Palmeiras: projected 5 points, likely range 5 to 5. Title chance 0%.
  • Inter Miami CF55–5Inter Miami CF: projected 5 points, likely range 5 to 5. Title chance 0%.
  • Monterrey55–5Monterrey: projected 5 points, likely range 5 to 5. Title chance 0%.
  • Fluminense55–5Fluminense: projected 5 points, likely range 5 to 5. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Hilal55–5Al Hilal: projected 5 points, likely range 5 to 5. Title chance 0%.
  • River Plate44–4River Plate: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Mamelodi Sundowns FC44–4Mamelodi Sundowns FC: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Salzburg44–4Salzburg: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Espérance33–3Espérance: projected 3 points, likely range 3 to 3. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Ain33–3Al-Ain: projected 3 points, likely range 3 to 3. Title chance 0%.
  • FC Porto22–2FC Porto: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Ahly SC22–2Al Ahly SC: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Boca Juniors22–2Boca Juniors: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Auckland City FC11–1Auckland City FC: projected 1 points, likely range 1 to 1. Title chance 0%.
  • LAFC11–1Los Angeles FC: projected 1 points, likely range 1 to 1. Title chance 0%.
  • Seattle Sounders00–0Seattle Sounders FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Urawa Red Diamonds00–0Urawa Red Diamonds: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Ulsan HD FC00–0Ulsan HD FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Wydad Casablanca00–0Wydad Casablanca: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Pachuca00–0Pachuca: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Manchester City99999100%
Benfica777770%
Flamengo777770%
Inter777770%
Borussia Dortmund777770%
Real Madrid777770%
Paris Saint-Germain666660%
Botafogo666660%
Atlético Madrid666660%
Bayern München666660%
Chelsea666660%
Juventus666660%
Palmeiras555550%
Inter Miami CF555550%
Monterrey555550%
Fluminense555550%
Al Hilal555550%
River Plate444440%
Mamelodi Sundowns FC444440%
Salzburg444440%
Espérance333330%
Al-Ain333330%
FC Porto222220%
Al Ahly SC222220%
Boca Juniors222220%
Auckland City FC111110%
Los Angeles FC111110%
Seattle Sounders FC000000%
Urawa Red Diamonds000000%
Ulsan HD FC000000%
Wydad Casablanca000000%
Pachuca000000%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Man City
  • Benfica
  • Real Madrid
  • Flamengo
  • Inter
  • Dortmund
  • Bayern München
  • Juventus
  • PSG
  • Chelsea
  • Botafogo
  • Atlético Madrid
  • Monterrey
  • Palmeiras
  • Fluminense
  • Al Hilal
  • Inter Miami CF
  • Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  • River Plate
  • Salzburg
  • Espérance
  • Al-Ain
  • FC Porto
  • Boca Juniors
  • Al Ahly SC
  • LAFC
  • Auckland City FC
  • Ulsan HD FC
  • Seattle Sounders
  • Pachuca
  • Wydad Casablanca
  • Urawa Red Diamonds
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Manchester City100%0%0%100%0%
Benfica0%100%0%100%0%
Real Madrid0%100%0%100%0%
Flamengo0%100%0%100%0%
Inter0%0%0%100%0%
Borussia Dortmund0%0%0%100%0%
Bayern München0%0%0%100%0%
Juventus0%0%0%100%0%
Paris Saint-Germain0%0%0%100%0%
Chelsea0%0%0%100%0%
Botafogo0%0%0%100%0%
Atlético Madrid0%0%0%100%0%
Monterrey0%0%0%100%0%
Palmeiras0%0%0%100%0%
Fluminense0%0%0%100%0%
Al Hilal0%0%0%100%0%
Inter Miami CF0%0%0%100%0%
Mamelodi Sundowns FC0%0%0%100%0%
River Plate0%0%0%100%0%
Salzburg0%0%0%100%0%
Espérance0%0%0%100%0%
Al-Ain0%0%0%100%0%
FC Porto0%0%0%100%0%
Boca Juniors0%0%0%100%0%
Al Ahly SC0%0%0%100%0%
Los Angeles FC0%0%0%100%0%
Auckland City FC0%0%0%100%0%
Ulsan HD FC0%0%0%100%0%
Seattle Sounders FC0%0%0%100%0%
Pachuca0%0%0%100%0%
Wydad Casablanca0%0%0%100%0%
Urawa Red Diamonds0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Man City+97
  • Palmeiras-3
  • Inter Miami CF-3
  • FC Porto-3
  • Al Ahly SC-3
  • PSG-3
How they got here3 matchweeks
Position by matchweekMCIBENRMAFLAINEDORBAYJUVPSGCHEBOTATMMONPALFLUALHINTMAMRIVSALESPALIFCPBOCALALOSAUCULSSEAPACWYDURA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Manchester City116+5
Benfica2212+10
Real Madrid3315+12
Flamengo447+3
Inter5516+11
Borussia Dortmund6621+15
Bayern München717-6
Juventus828-6
Paris Saint-Germain9315-6
Chelsea10517-5
Botafogo11511-2
Atlético Madrid121230+18
Monterrey131321+1
Palmeiras141018+4
Fluminense15822+7
Al Hilal161320-3
Inter Miami CF171419+2
Mamelodi Sundowns FC181018-8
River Plate19419-15
Salzburg20820-12
Espérance211828+7
Al-Ain222231+9
FC Porto232023-3
Boca Juniors241124-13
Al Ahly SC251725-8
Los Angeles FC262629+3
Auckland City FC272732+5
Ulsan HD FC282528-3
Seattle Sounders FC292329-6
Pachuca302430-6
Wydad Casablanca312731-4
Urawa Red Diamonds322632-6
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.