Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Viking are favourites

Ahead of Bodø/Glimt on 49%. The model projects them to finish on 69 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 66.

Title chance

51%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Viking6966–72Viking: projected 69 points, likely range 66 to 72. Title chance 51%.
  • Bodø/Glimt6965–72Bodø/Glimt: projected 69 points, likely range 65 to 72. Title chance 49%.
  • Rosenborg5350–58Rosenborg: projected 53 points, likely range 50 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • Molde5047–55Molde: projected 50 points, likely range 47 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Lillestrøm5046–54Lillestrøm: projected 50 points, likely range 46 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Tromsø4643–50Tromsø: projected 46 points, likely range 43 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Brann4036–44Brann: projected 40 points, likely range 36 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Sarpsborg 083935–43Sarpsborg 08: projected 39 points, likely range 35 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Vålerenga3835–42Vålerenga: projected 38 points, likely range 35 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • KFUM3734–40KFUM: projected 37 points, likely range 34 to 40. Title chance 0%.
  • Sandefjord3632–40Sandefjord: projected 36 points, likely range 32 to 40. Title chance 0%.
  • Fredrikstad3431–38Fredrikstad: projected 34 points, likely range 31 to 38. Title chance 0%.
  • HamKam3128–34Hamarkameratene: projected 31 points, likely range 28 to 34. Title chance 0%.
  • Kristiansund2925–32Kristiansund: projected 29 points, likely range 25 to 32. Title chance 0%.
  • Aalesund2825–31Aalesund: projected 28 points, likely range 25 to 31. Title chance 0%.
  • Start2320–26Start: projected 23 points, likely range 20 to 26. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Viking666769717251%
Bodø/Glimt656769717249%
Rosenborg50525356580%
Molde47495052550%
Lillestrøm46485052540%
Tromsø43444648500%
Brann36384042440%
Sarpsborg 0835373941430%
Vålerenga35363840420%
KFUM34353738400%
Sandefjord32343638400%
Fredrikstad31323436380%
Hamarkameratene28293133340%
Kristiansund25272930320%
Aalesund25262830310%
Start20212325260%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Viking
  • Bodø/Glimt
  • Rosenborg
  • Molde
  • Lillestrøm
  • Tromsø
  • Brann
  • Sarpsborg 08
  • Vålerenga
  • KFUM
  • Sandefjord
  • Fredrikstad
  • HamKam
  • Aalesund
  • Kristiansund
  • Start
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Viking51%49%0%0%0%
Bodø/Glimt49%51%0%0%0%
Rosenborg0%90%0%10%0%
Molde0%57%0%43%0%
Lillestrøm0%46%0%54%0%
Tromsø0%8%0%92%0%
Brann0%0%0%100%0%
Sarpsborg 080%0%0%100%0%
Vålerenga0%0%0%100%0%
KFUM0%0%0%99%1%
Sandefjord0%0%0%98%2%
Fredrikstad0%0%0%92%8%
Hamarkameratene0%0%0%62%38%
Aalesund0%0%0%23%77%
Kristiansund0%0%0%25%75%
Start0%0%0%1%99%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Viking+44
  • Bodø/Glimt+43
  • Molde-6
  • Rosenborg-6
  • Lillestrøm-6
  • Tromsø-6
How they got here25 matchweeks
Position by matchweekVIKBODMOLROSLILTROBRAVLESARKFUFRESANHAMAALKRISTA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Viking1111+10
Bodø/Glimt218+6
Molde3311+1
Rosenborg4416+10
Lillestrøm527-3
Tromsø616-5
Brann7715+3
Vålerenga8212-1
Sarpsborg 0895130
KFUM10314-7
Fredrikstad11616+5
Sandefjord126150
Hamarkameratene13614-7
Aalesund141216-1
Kristiansund15315-10
Start161316-1
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.