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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Bodø/Glimt are favourites

Ahead of Viking on 21%. The model projects them to finish on 73 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 68.

Title chance

79%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Bodø/Glimt7368–77Bodø/Glimt: projected 73 points, likely range 68 to 77. Title chance 79%.
  • Viking6964–73Viking: projected 69 points, likely range 64 to 73. Title chance 21%.
  • Molde5348–58Molde: projected 53 points, likely range 48 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • Tromsø5045–56Tromsø: projected 50 points, likely range 45 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Rosenborg4539–50Rosenborg: projected 45 points, likely range 39 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Lillestrøm4439–49Lillestrøm: projected 44 points, likely range 39 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Fredrikstad4035–45Fredrikstad: projected 40 points, likely range 35 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Brann4034–45Brann: projected 40 points, likely range 34 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Sarpsborg 084035–45Sarpsborg 08: projected 40 points, likely range 35 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Vålerenga3530–40Vålerenga: projected 35 points, likely range 30 to 40. Title chance 0%.
  • HamKam3227–37Hamarkameratene: projected 32 points, likely range 27 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • KFUM3228–37KFUM: projected 32 points, likely range 28 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Sandefjord3126–37Sandefjord: projected 31 points, likely range 26 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Kristiansund2924–34Kristiansund: projected 29 points, likely range 24 to 34. Title chance 0%.
  • Aalesund2925–35Aalesund: projected 29 points, likely range 25 to 35. Title chance 0%.
  • Start2924–34Start: projected 29 points, likely range 24 to 34. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Bodø/Glimt687073757779%
Viking646669717321%
Molde48505356580%
Tromsø45485053560%
Rosenborg39424547500%
Lillestrøm39414446490%
Fredrikstad35374043450%
Brann34374042450%
Sarpsborg 0835374043450%
Vålerenga30323538400%
Hamarkameratene27293234370%
KFUM28303235370%
Sandefjord26283134370%
Kristiansund24262932340%
Aalesund25272932350%
Start24262932340%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Bodø/Glimt
  • Viking
  • Molde
  • Tromsø
  • Rosenborg
  • Lillestrøm
  • Brann
  • Sarpsborg 08
  • Fredrikstad
  • Vålerenga
  • KFUM
  • Sandefjord
  • HamKam
  • Aalesund
  • Start
  • Kristiansund
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Bodø/Glimt79%21%0%0%0%
Viking21%79%0%0%0%
Molde0%91%0%9%0%
Tromsø0%76%0%24%0%
Rosenborg0%16%0%84%0%
Lillestrøm0%10%0%90%0%
Brann0%2%0%97%1%
Sarpsborg 080%2%0%97%1%
Fredrikstad0%2%0%97%1%
Vålerenga0%0%0%89%11%
KFUM0%0%0%71%29%
Sandefjord0%0%0%63%37%
Hamarkameratene0%0%0%62%38%
Aalesund0%0%0%44%56%
Start0%0%0%40%60%
Kristiansund0%0%0%35%65%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Bodø/Glimt+72
  • Viking+15
  • Molde-6
  • Tromsø-6
  • Lillestrøm-6
  • Rosenborg-6
How they got here20 matchweeks
Position by matchweekBODVIKMOLTROLILROSFREBRASARHAMVLEKFUSANKRIAALSTA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Bodø/Glimt118+7
Viking2111+9
Molde3311+1
Tromsø414-3
Lillestrøm527-3
Rosenborg6616+8
Fredrikstad7616+9
Brann8514+2
Sarpsborg 0895130
Hamarkameratene10614-4
Vålerenga11212-4
KFUM12314-9
Sandefjord13615-1
Kristiansund14315-9
Aalesund151216-2
Start161316-1
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.