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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Galatasaray are favourites

Ahead of Trabzonspor on 12%. The model projects them to finish on 76 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 68.

Title chance

77%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Galatasaray7668–83Galatasaray: projected 76 points, likely range 68 to 83. Title chance 77%.
  • Trabzonspor6658–74Trabzonspor: projected 66 points, likely range 58 to 74. Title chance 12%.
  • Amed Sportif6355–71Amed Sportif: projected 63 points, likely range 55 to 71. Title chance 5%.
  • Beşiktaş6153–69Beşiktaş: projected 61 points, likely range 53 to 69. Title chance 3%.
  • Fenerbahçe6153–69Fenerbahçe: projected 61 points, likely range 53 to 69. Title chance 3%.
  • Göztepe5547–63Göztepe: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 63. Title chance <1%.
  • Başakşehir5345–61Başakşehir: projected 53 points, likely range 45 to 61. Title chance <1%.
  • Kocaelispor5043–58Kocaelispor: projected 50 points, likely range 43 to 58. Title chance <1%.
  • Kasımpaşa4942–57Kasımpaşa: projected 49 points, likely range 42 to 57. Title chance 0%.
  • Çorum FK4537–53Çorum FK: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Rizespor4234–50Rizespor: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Erzurumspor FK3932–47Erzurumspor FK: projected 39 points, likely range 32 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Alanyaspor3729–44Alanyaspor: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Konyaspor3628–44Konyaspor: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Gaziantep FK3628–43Gaziantep FK: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Gençlerbirliği3528–43Gençlerbirliği: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Samsunspor2922–37Samsunspor: projected 29 points, likely range 22 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Eyüpspor2013–27Eyüpspor: projected 20 points, likely range 13 to 27. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Galatasaray687276798377%
Trabzonspor586266707412%
Amed Sportif55596367715%
Beşiktaş53576165693%
Fenerbahçe53576165693%
Göztepe4751555963<1%
Başakşehir4549535761<1%
Kocaelispor4346505558<1%
Kasımpaşa42454954570%
Çorum FK37414549530%
Rizespor34384246500%
Erzurumspor FK32353944470%
Alanyaspor29333741440%
Konyaspor28323640440%
Gaziantep FK28323640430%
Gençlerbirliği28313539430%
Samsunspor22252933370%
Eyüpspor13162024270%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Galatasaray
  • Trabzonspor
  • Amed Sportif
  • Beşiktaş
  • Fenerbahçe
  • Göztepe
  • Başakşehir
  • Kocaelispor
  • Kasımpaşa
  • Çorum FK
  • Rizespor
  • Erzurumspor FK
  • Alanyaspor
  • Konyaspor
  • Gaziantep FK
  • Gençlerbirliği
  • Samsunspor
  • Eyüpspor
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Galatasaray77%22%0%1%0%
Trabzonspor12%72%0%16%0%
Amed Sportif5%62%0%33%0%
Beşiktaş3%51%0%46%0%
Fenerbahçe3%52%0%45%0%
Göztepe0%19%0%81%0%
Başakşehir0%12%0%88%0%
Kocaelispor0%5%0%95%0%
Kasımpaşa0%4%0%96%0%
Çorum FK0%1%0%98%2%
Rizespor0%0%0%94%6%
Erzurumspor FK0%0%0%88%12%
Alanyaspor0%0%0%78%22%
Konyaspor0%0%0%72%28%
Gaziantep FK0%0%0%71%29%
Gençlerbirliği0%0%0%68%32%
Samsunspor0%0%0%29%71%
Eyüpspor0%0%0%2%98%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Galatasaray+72
  • Trabzonspor+6
  • Kasımpaşa-6
  • Çorum FK-6
  • Erzurumspor FK-6
  • Alanyaspor-6
How they got here9 matchweeks
Position by matchweekGALAMETRABEIFENKASKOCERZORUGZTALABAARIZKONGAZGENSAMEYP

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Galatasaray119+8
Amed Sportif2110-1
Trabzonspor3313+10
Beşiktaş42120
Fenerbahçe5314+9
Kasımpaşa6412+6
Kocaelispor7317+10
Erzurumspor FK8818+10
Çorum FK9616-1
Göztepe10618-4
Alanyaspor115130
Başakşehir12213-10
Rizespor13513-8
Konyaspor141418+2
Gaziantep FK15515-5
Gençlerbirliği16116-13
Samsunspor17317-10
Eyüpspor181418-3
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.