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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Galatasaray are favourites

Ahead of Beşiktaş on 32%. The model projects them to finish on 72 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 63.

Title chance

59%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Galatasaray7263–80Galatasaray: projected 72 points, likely range 63 to 80. Title chance 59%.
  • Beşiktaş6960–77Beşiktaş: projected 69 points, likely range 60 to 77. Title chance 32%.
  • Fenerbahçe6253–70Fenerbahçe: projected 62 points, likely range 53 to 70. Title chance 8%.
  • Trabzonspor5445–62Trabzonspor: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • Amed Sportif5243–61Amed Sportif: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance <1%.
  • Rizespor4940–58Rizespor: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 58. Title chance <1%.
  • Kasımpaşa4637–55Kasımpaşa: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance <1%.
  • Alanyaspor4638–56Alanyaspor: projected 46 points, likely range 38 to 56. Title chance <1%.
  • Kocaelispor4537–54Kocaelispor: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Göztepe4434–53Göztepe: projected 44 points, likely range 34 to 53. Title chance <1%.
  • Çorum FK4334–52Çorum FK: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Gaziantep FK4234–51Gaziantep FK: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Başakşehir4233–51Başakşehir: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Samsunspor4132–50Samsunspor: projected 41 points, likely range 32 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Konyaspor4031–49Konyaspor: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance <1%.
  • Gençlerbirliği3729–45Gençlerbirliği: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Eyüpspor3325–41Eyüpspor: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Erzurumspor FK3224–41Erzurumspor FK: projected 32 points, likely range 24 to 41. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Galatasaray636872768059%
Beşiktaş606469737732%
Fenerbahçe53576266708%
Trabzonspor4549545862<1%
Amed Sportif4347525761<1%
Rizespor4044495458<1%
Kasımpaşa3741465155<1%
Alanyaspor3842465156<1%
Kocaelispor37414550540%
Göztepe3439444853<1%
Çorum FK34384348520%
Gaziantep FK34384247510%
Başakşehir33374247510%
Samsunspor32364146500%
Konyaspor3135404549<1%
Gençlerbirliği29323741450%
Eyüpspor25283337410%
Erzurumspor FK24283237410%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Galatasaray
  • Beşiktaş
  • Fenerbahçe
  • Trabzonspor
  • Amed Sportif
  • Rizespor
  • Alanyaspor
  • Kasımpaşa
  • Kocaelispor
  • Göztepe
  • Çorum FK
  • Gaziantep FK
  • Başakşehir
  • Samsunspor
  • Konyaspor
  • Gençlerbirliği
  • Eyüpspor
  • Erzurumspor FK
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Galatasaray59%40%0%1%0%
Beşiktaş32%65%0%3%0%
Fenerbahçe8%75%0%17%0%
Trabzonspor1%38%0%60%0%
Amed Sportif1%28%0%71%1%
Rizespor0%15%0%82%3%
Alanyaspor0%9%0%86%5%
Kasımpaşa0%7%0%87%6%
Kocaelispor0%6%0%87%7%
Göztepe0%5%0%84%11%
Çorum FK0%3%0%84%13%
Gaziantep FK0%2%0%84%14%
Başakşehir0%3%0%81%16%
Samsunspor0%2%0%79%20%
Konyaspor0%1%0%75%24%
Gençlerbirliği0%0%0%56%43%
Eyüpspor0%0%0%34%66%
Erzurumspor FK0%0%0%29%71%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Galatasaray+53
  • Beşiktaş+26
  • Kocaelispor-6
  • Gaziantep FK-6
  • Çorum FK-6
  • Gençlerbirliği-6
How they got here5 matchweeks
Position by matchweekGALBEIAMEKASKOCRIZGAZALATRAORUFENGENBAASAMERZKONEYPGZT

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Galatasaray119+8
Beşiktaş2212+2
Amed Sportif3110-2
Kasımpaşa4412+8
Kocaelispor5317+12
Rizespor6513-1
Gaziantep FK7512+3
Alanyaspor8613+3
Trabzonspor9413+4
Çorum FK10816-2
Fenerbahçe11414+3
Gençlerbirliği12112-9
Başakşehir13213-11
Samsunspor14314-7
Erzurumspor FK151518+3
Konyaspor1616180
Eyüpspor171417-2
Göztepe18618-12
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.