Swiss Super League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Lugano are favourites
Ahead of Sion on 33%. The model projects them to finish on 44 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 37.
Title chance
52%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Lugano4437–50Lugano: projected 44 points, likely range 37 to 50. Title chance 52%.
- Sion4235–48Sion: projected 42 points, likely range 35 to 48. Title chance 33%.
- Young Boys3831–44Young Boys: projected 38 points, likely range 31 to 44. Title chance 13%.
- Basel3125–38Basel: projected 31 points, likely range 25 to 38. Title chance 1%.
- St. Gallen3023–36St. Gallen: projected 30 points, likely range 23 to 36. Title chance <1%.
- Servette2923–36Servette: projected 29 points, likely range 23 to 36. Title chance <1%.
- FC Zürich2721–34FC Zürich: projected 27 points, likely range 21 to 34. Title chance <1%.
- Luzern2721–34Luzern: projected 27 points, likely range 21 to 34. Title chance <1%.
- Grasshopper2721–34Grasshopper: projected 27 points, likely range 21 to 34. Title chance <1%.
- FC Vaduz2620–32FC Vaduz: projected 26 points, likely range 20 to 32. Title chance <1%.
- Thun2418–31Thun: projected 24 points, likely range 18 to 31. Title chance <1%.
- Lausanne2317–29Lausanne: projected 23 points, likely range 17 to 29. Title chance <1%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 37 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 50 | 52% |
| Sion | 35 | 38 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 33% |
| Young Boys | 31 | 34 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 13% |
| Basel | 25 | 28 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 1% |
| St. Gallen | 23 | 26 | 30 | 33 | 36 | <1% |
| Servette | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 36 | <1% |
| FC Zürich | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 34 | <1% |
| Luzern | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 34 | <1% |
| Grasshopper | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 34 | <1% |
| FC Vaduz | 20 | 22 | 26 | 29 | 32 | <1% |
| Thun | 18 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 31 | <1% |
| Lausanne | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | <1% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Lugano
- Sion
- Young Boys
- Basel
- St. Gallen
- Servette
- Luzern
- Grasshopper
- FC Zürich
- FC Vaduz
- Thun
- Lausanne
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 52% | 47% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Sion | 33% | 62% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Young Boys | 13% | 71% | 0% | 95% | 5% |
| Basel | 1% | 32% | 0% | 64% | 36% |
| St. Gallen | 0% | 20% | 0% | 49% | 52% |
| Servette | 0% | 19% | 0% | 46% | 54% |
| Luzern | 0% | 12% | 0% | 34% | 66% |
| Grasshopper | 0% | 12% | 0% | 33% | 67% |
| FC Zürich | 0% | 11% | 0% | 31% | 69% |
| FC Vaduz | 0% | 8% | 0% | 26% | 74% |
| Thun | 0% | 4% | 0% | 15% | 85% |
| Lausanne | 0% | 2% | 0% | 10% | 90% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Lugano+43
- Sion+25
- Lausanne-8
- Thun-8
- FC Vaduz-8
- Luzern-8
How they got here8 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
| Sion | 2 | 2 | 11 | +9 |
| Young Boys | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Basel | 4 | 3 | 7 | +1 |
| Servette | 5 | 5 | 11 | +5 |
| St. Gallen | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 |
| FC Zürich | 7 | 6 | 10 | +1 |
| Luzern | 8 | 5 | 12 | +4 |
| Grasshopper | 9 | 7 | 12 | -2 |
| Thun | 10 | 2 | 10 | -8 |
| FC Vaduz | 11 | 9 | 12 | -2 |
| Lausanne | 12 | 4 | 12 | -6 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.