Swiss Super League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Lugano are favourites
Ahead of Sion on 5%. The model projects them to finish on 51 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 45.
Title chance
92%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Lugano5145–56Lugano: projected 51 points, likely range 45 to 56. Title chance 92%.
- Sion4136–46Sion: projected 41 points, likely range 36 to 46. Title chance 5%.
- Young Boys3934–45Young Boys: projected 39 points, likely range 34 to 45. Title chance 3%.
- FC Zürich3428–39FC Zürich: projected 34 points, likely range 28 to 39. Title chance <1%.
- St. Gallen3327–38St. Gallen: projected 33 points, likely range 27 to 38. Title chance <1%.
- Servette3126–37Servette: projected 31 points, likely range 26 to 37. Title chance <1%.
- Basel2822–33Basel: projected 28 points, likely range 22 to 33. Title chance 0%.
- Thun2722–32Thun: projected 27 points, likely range 22 to 32. Title chance 0%.
- Luzern2520–31Luzern: projected 25 points, likely range 20 to 31. Title chance 0%.
- Grasshopper2318–28Grasshopper: projected 23 points, likely range 18 to 28. Title chance 0%.
- FC Vaduz2217–27FC Vaduz: projected 22 points, likely range 17 to 27. Title chance 0%.
- Lausanne1712–22Lausanne: projected 17 points, likely range 12 to 22. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 45 | 48 | 51 | 53 | 56 | 92% |
| Sion | 36 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 46 | 5% |
| Young Boys | 34 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 3% |
| FC Zürich | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 39 | <1% |
| St. Gallen | 27 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 38 | <1% |
| Servette | 26 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 | <1% |
| Basel | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 0% |
| Thun | 22 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 32 | 0% |
| Luzern | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 0% |
| Grasshopper | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 0% |
| FC Vaduz | 17 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 0% |
| Lausanne | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Lugano
- Sion
- Young Boys
- FC Zürich
- St. Gallen
- Servette
- Basel
- Thun
- Luzern
- FC Vaduz
- Grasshopper
- Lausanne
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 92% | 8% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Sion | 5% | 89% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Young Boys | 3% | 87% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| FC Zürich | 0% | 45% | 0% | 82% | 18% |
| St. Gallen | 0% | 31% | 0% | 73% | 28% |
| Servette | 0% | 25% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Basel | 0% | 7% | 0% | 31% | 69% |
| Thun | 0% | 4% | 0% | 24% | 76% |
| Luzern | 0% | 2% | 0% | 14% | 86% |
| FC Vaduz | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 95% |
| Grasshopper | 0% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 95% |
| Lausanne | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Lugano+84
- Basel-8
- Luzern-8
- Thun-8
- FC Vaduz-8
- Grasshopper-8
How they got here12 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
| Young Boys | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| Sion | 3 | 2 | 11 | +8 |
| FC Zürich | 4 | 4 | 10 | +4 |
| St. Gallen | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 |
| Servette | 6 | 5 | 11 | +4 |
| Basel | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 |
| Luzern | 8 | 5 | 12 | +4 |
| Thun | 9 | 2 | 10 | -7 |
| FC Vaduz | 10 | 9 | 12 | -1 |
| Grasshopper | 11 | 7 | 12 | -4 |
| Lausanne | 12 | 4 | 12 | -6 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.