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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Copa Libertadores · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Independiente del Valle have won it

Settled — the remaining fixtures cannot change it.

Title chance

100%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Independiente del Valle66–6Independiente del Valle: projected 6 points, likely range 6 to 6. Title chance 100%.
  • Flamengo44–4Flamengo: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Estudiantes44–4Estudiantes: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Corinthians44–4Corinthians: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Palmeiras44–4Palmeiras: projected 4 points, likely range 4 to 4. Title chance 0%.
  • Coquimbo Unido22–2Coquimbo Unido: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente Rivadavia22–2Independiente Rivadavia: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Fluminense22–2Fluminense: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Club Atlético Platense22–2Club Atlético Platense: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • LDU de Quito22–2LDU de Quito: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Mirassol22–2Mirassol: projected 2 points, likely range 2 to 2. Title chance 0%.
  • Universidad Católica11–1Universidad Católica: projected 1 points, likely range 1 to 1. Title chance 0%.
  • Cruzeiro11–1Cruzeiro: projected 1 points, likely range 1 to 1. Title chance 0%.
  • Cerro Porteño11–1Cerro Porteño: projected 1 points, likely range 1 to 1. Title chance 0%.
  • Rosario Central11–1Rosario Central: projected 1 points, likely range 1 to 1. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente Medellín00–0Independiente Medellín: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Cusco FC00–0Cusco FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Tolima00–0Tolima: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Nacional00–0Nacional: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Universitario de Deportes00–0Universitario de Deportes: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Bolívar00–0Bolívar: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo La Guaira00–0Deportivo La Guaira: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Boca Juniors00–0Boca Juniors: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Barcelona SC00–0Barcelona SC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Santa Fe00–0Santa Fe: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Peñarol00–0Club Atletico Peñarol: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Sporting Cristal00–0Sporting Cristal: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Junior FC00–0Junior FC: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Lanús00–0Lanús: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Always Ready00–0Always Ready: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Universidad Central00–0Universidad Central: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Libertad00–0Libertad: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Independiente del Valle66666100%
Flamengo444440%
Estudiantes444440%
Corinthians444440%
Palmeiras444440%
Coquimbo Unido222220%
Independiente Rivadavia222220%
Fluminense222220%
Club Atlético Platense222220%
LDU de Quito222220%
Mirassol222220%
Universidad Católica111110%
Cruzeiro111110%
Cerro Porteño111110%
Rosario Central111110%
Independiente Medellín000000%
Cusco FC000000%
Tolima000000%
Nacional000000%
Universitario de Deportes000000%
Bolívar000000%
Deportivo La Guaira000000%
Boca Juniors000000%
Barcelona SC000000%
Santa Fe000000%
Club Atletico Peñarol000000%
Sporting Cristal000000%
Junior FC000000%
Lanús000000%
Always Ready000000%
Universidad Central000000%
Libertad000000%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Independiente del Valle
  • Estudiantes
  • Flamengo
  • Palmeiras
  • Corinthians
  • Coquimbo Unido
  • Independiente Rivadavia
  • Fluminense
  • Club Atlético Platense
  • LDU de Quito
  • Mirassol
  • Cruzeiro
  • Cerro Porteño
  • Rosario Central
  • Universidad Católica
  • Independiente Medellín
  • Cusco FC
  • Nacional
  • Universitario de Deportes
  • Bolívar
  • Deportivo La Guaira
  • Boca Juniors
  • Barcelona SC
  • Santa Fe
  • Peñarol
  • Sporting Cristal
  • Junior FC
  • Always Ready
  • Universidad Central
  • Libertad
  • Lanús
  • Tolima
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Independiente del Valle100%0%0%100%0%
Estudiantes0%100%0%100%0%
Flamengo0%100%0%100%0%
Palmeiras0%100%0%100%0%
Corinthians0%0%0%100%0%
Coquimbo Unido0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente Rivadavia0%0%0%100%0%
Fluminense0%0%0%100%0%
Club Atlético Platense0%0%0%100%0%
LDU de Quito0%0%0%100%0%
Mirassol0%0%0%100%0%
Cruzeiro0%0%0%100%0%
Cerro Porteño0%0%0%100%0%
Rosario Central0%0%0%100%0%
Universidad Católica0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente Medellín0%0%0%100%0%
Cusco FC0%0%0%100%0%
Nacional0%0%0%100%0%
Universitario de Deportes0%0%0%100%0%
Bolívar0%0%0%100%0%
Deportivo La Guaira0%0%0%100%0%
Boca Juniors0%0%0%100%0%
Barcelona SC0%0%0%100%0%
Santa Fe0%0%0%100%0%
Club Atletico Peñarol0%0%0%100%0%
Sporting Cristal0%0%0%100%0%
Junior FC0%0%0%100%0%
Always Ready0%0%0%100%0%
Universidad Central0%0%0%100%0%
Libertad0%0%0%100%0%
Lanús0%0%0%100%0%
Tolima0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Independiente del Valle+97
  • Flamengo-3
  • Estudiantes-3
  • Independiente Medellín-3
  • Cusco FC-3
  • Coquimbo Unido-3
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.