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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Serie A · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Inter are favourites

Ahead of Roma on 30%. The model projects them to finish on 82 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 73.

Title chance

49%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Inter8273–91Inter: projected 82 points, likely range 73 to 91. Title chance 49%.
  • Roma7969–88Roma: projected 79 points, likely range 69 to 88. Title chance 30%.
  • Como7566–84Como: projected 75 points, likely range 66 to 84. Title chance 13%.
  • Juventus7262–81Juventus: projected 72 points, likely range 62 to 81. Title chance 6%.
  • Milan6353–73Milan: projected 63 points, likely range 53 to 73. Title chance <1%.
  • Napoli6252–71Napoli: projected 62 points, likely range 52 to 71. Title chance <1%.
  • Lazio6051–70Lazio: projected 60 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance <1%.
  • Atalanta5646–65Atalanta: projected 56 points, likely range 46 to 65. Title chance <1%.
  • Fiorentina5243–62Fiorentina: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • Sassuolo5142–60Sassuolo: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance <1%.
  • Cagliari4738–57Cagliari: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 57. Title chance 0%.
  • Bologna4737–56Bologna: projected 47 points, likely range 37 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Frosinone4637–56Frosinone: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Udinese4435–54Udinese: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Torino4233–51Torino: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Monza4232–51Monza: projected 42 points, likely range 32 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Genoa4031–49Genoa: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Lecce3527–44Lecce: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Parma3223–41Parma: projected 32 points, likely range 23 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Venezia3223–41Venezia: projected 32 points, likely range 23 to 41. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Inter737782879149%
Roma697479848830%
Como667075808413%
Juventus62677276816%
Milan5358636873<1%
Napoli5257626771<1%
Lazio5156606570<1%
Atalanta4650566165<1%
Fiorentina4347525762<1%
Sassuolo4246515660<1%
Cagliari38434752570%
Bologna37424752560%
Frosinone37414651560%
Udinese35404449540%
Torino33374247510%
Monza32374247510%
Genoa31354045490%
Lecce27313540440%
Parma23273237410%
Venezia23273236410%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Inter
  • Roma
  • Como
  • Juventus
  • Milan
  • Napoli
  • Lazio
  • Atalanta
  • Fiorentina
  • Sassuolo
  • Cagliari
  • Bologna
  • Frosinone
  • Udinese
  • Torino
  • Monza
  • Genoa
  • Lecce
  • Parma
  • Venezia
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Inter49%48%3%0%0%
Roma30%63%6%1%0%
Como13%70%13%3%0%
Juventus6%63%23%8%0%
Milan1%21%40%38%0%
Napoli0%15%37%47%0%
Lazio0%12%33%55%0%
Atalanta0%4%18%78%1%
Fiorentina0%2%10%87%1%
Sassuolo0%1%7%90%2%
Cagliari0%0%3%92%5%
Bologna0%0%2%91%6%
Frosinone0%0%2%90%7%
Udinese0%0%1%88%11%
Torino0%0%0%81%19%
Monza0%0%0%80%20%
Genoa0%0%0%71%29%
Lecce0%0%0%44%56%
Parma0%0%0%30%70%
Venezia0%0%0%27%73%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Inter+44
  • Roma+25
  • Como+8
  • Cagliari-5
  • Frosinone-5
  • Lecce-5
How they got here4 matchweeks
Position by matchweekROMINTCOMLAZCAGMILFROJUVSASNAPATALECUDITORFIOBOLPARMONGENVEN

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Roma1110
Inter2220
Como3310+7
Lazio438+4
Cagliari5512+2
Milan6360
Frosinone7716+9
Juventus849+1
Sassuolo9912+3
Napoli10312-7
Atalanta11511-6
Lecce12414-8
Udinese13713-2
Torino141314-1
Fiorentina151520+5
Bologna161516-1
Parma171417-3
Monza181719+1
Genoa191719-2
Venezia201820-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.