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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Serie A · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Inter are favourites

Ahead of Como on 13%. The model projects them to finish on 86 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 78.

Title chance

69%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Inter8678–93Inter: projected 86 points, likely range 78 to 93. Title chance 69%.
  • Como7869–86Como: projected 78 points, likely range 69 to 86. Title chance 13%.
  • Roma7566–84Roma: projected 75 points, likely range 66 to 84. Title chance 9%.
  • Lazio7466–83Lazio: projected 74 points, likely range 66 to 83. Title chance 7%.
  • Milan6960–77Milan: projected 69 points, likely range 60 to 77. Title chance 1%.
  • Juventus6758–75Juventus: projected 67 points, likely range 58 to 75. Title chance <1%.
  • Napoli6354–71Napoli: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 71. Title chance <1%.
  • Frosinone5849–67Frosinone: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 67. Title chance 0%.
  • Atalanta5446–63Atalanta: projected 54 points, likely range 46 to 63. Title chance 0%.
  • Bologna5344–61Bologna: projected 53 points, likely range 44 to 61. Title chance 0%.
  • Torino4739–56Torino: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Cagliari4739–56Cagliari: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Genoa4537–54Genoa: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Fiorentina4031–48Fiorentina: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Lecce3931–48Lecce: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Sassuolo3729–46Sassuolo: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Monza3628–45Monza: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Parma3325–41Parma: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Venezia3225–41Venezia: projected 32 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Udinese3022–38Udinese: projected 30 points, likely range 22 to 38. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Inter788286909369%
Como697378828613%
Roma66717580849%
Lazio66707479837%
Milan60646973771%
Juventus5862677175<1%
Napoli5458636771<1%
Frosinone49535862670%
Atalanta46505459630%
Bologna44485357610%
Torino39434752560%
Cagliari39434752560%
Genoa37414550540%
Fiorentina31354044480%
Lecce31353944480%
Sassuolo29333742460%
Monza28323641450%
Parma25283337410%
Venezia25283237410%
Udinese22263034380%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Inter
  • Como
  • Roma
  • Lazio
  • Milan
  • Juventus
  • Napoli
  • Frosinone
  • Atalanta
  • Bologna
  • Torino
  • Cagliari
  • Genoa
  • Fiorentina
  • Lecce
  • Sassuolo
  • Monza
  • Parma
  • Venezia
  • Udinese
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Inter69%29%1%0%0%
Como13%71%13%2%0%
Roma9%67%20%5%0%
Lazio7%63%24%7%0%
Milan1%34%41%24%0%
Juventus1%22%43%35%0%
Napoli0%10%32%58%0%
Frosinone0%3%14%84%0%
Atalanta0%1%6%93%0%
Bologna0%1%4%95%0%
Torino0%0%1%97%2%
Cagliari0%0%1%97%3%
Genoa0%0%0%96%4%
Fiorentina0%0%0%81%19%
Lecce0%0%0%80%20%
Sassuolo0%0%0%70%30%
Monza0%0%0%65%35%
Parma0%0%0%44%56%
Venezia0%0%0%42%58%
Udinese0%0%0%27%73%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Inter+64
  • Como+8
  • Frosinone-5
  • Bologna-5
  • Torino-5
  • Genoa-5
How they got here9 matchweeks
Position by matchweekINTLAZROMCOMMILFRONAPJUVTORCAGBOLATAGENLECSASMONUDIFIOPARVEN

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Inter112+1
Lazio228+6
Roma313-2
Como4310+6
Milan536+1
Frosinone6616+10
Napoli7312-4
Juventus849+1
Torino9814+4
Cagliari10412-3
Bologna111118+4
Atalanta12512-7
Genoa131319+4
Lecce14414-10
Sassuolo15915-3
Monza161419+3
Udinese17717-6
Fiorentina181520+2
Parma191419-5
Venezia201820-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.