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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Nacional · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Antigua Guatemala are favourites

Ahead of CSD Municipal on 12%. The model projects them to finish on 42 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 38.

Title chance

83%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Antigua Guatemala4238–45Antigua Guatemala: projected 42 points, likely range 38 to 45. Title chance 83%.
  • CSD Municipal3733–40CSD Municipal: projected 37 points, likely range 33 to 40. Title chance 12%.
  • Deportivo Mixco3431–37Deportivo Mixco: projected 34 points, likely range 31 to 37. Title chance 2%.
  • Guastatoya3431–37Guastatoya: projected 34 points, likely range 31 to 37. Title chance <1%.
  • Club Xelajú3430–37Club Xelajú: projected 34 points, likely range 30 to 37. Title chance 1%.
  • San Pedro3128–35San Pedro: projected 31 points, likely range 28 to 35. Title chance <1%.
  • Deportivo Marquense3128–35Deportivo Marquense: projected 31 points, likely range 28 to 35. Title chance <1%.
  • Aurora FC3027–34Aurora FC: projected 30 points, likely range 27 to 34. Title chance <1%.
  • Coban Imperial3027–34Coban Imperial: projected 30 points, likely range 27 to 34. Title chance 0%.
  • Comunicaciones FC2521–29Comunicaciones FC: projected 25 points, likely range 21 to 29. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo Malacateco2521–29Deportivo Malacateco: projected 25 points, likely range 21 to 29. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Suchitepéquez1310–17CD Suchitepéquez: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 17. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Antigua Guatemala384042444583%
CSD Municipal333537394012%
Deportivo Mixco31323435372%
Guastatoya3132343537<1%
Club Xelajú30323435371%
San Pedro2830313335<1%
Deportivo Marquense2829313335<1%
Aurora FC2729303234<1%
Coban Imperial27283032340%
Comunicaciones FC21232527290%
Deportivo Malacateco21232527290%
CD Suchitepéquez10121316170%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Antigua Guatemala
  • CSD Municipal
  • Deportivo Mixco
  • Club Xelajú
  • Guastatoya
  • San Pedro
  • Deportivo Marquense
  • Aurora FC
  • Coban Imperial
  • Comunicaciones FC
  • Deportivo Malacateco
  • CD Suchitepéquez
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Antigua Guatemala83%17%0%100%0%
CSD Municipal12%77%0%100%0%
Deportivo Mixco2%50%0%100%0%
Club Xelajú1%53%0%100%0%
Guastatoya1%46%0%100%0%
San Pedro0%20%0%100%0%
Deportivo Marquense0%18%0%100%0%
Aurora FC0%11%0%100%0%
Coban Imperial0%10%0%100%0%
Comunicaciones FC0%0%0%100%0%
Deportivo Malacateco0%0%0%100%0%
CD Suchitepéquez0%0%0%0%100%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Antigua Guatemala+75
  • Coban Imperial-8
  • Comunicaciones FC-8
  • Deportivo Malacateco-8
  • CD Suchitepéquez-8
  • Aurora FC-8
How they got here17 matchweeks
Position by matchweekANTCSDDEPGUACLUAURDEOSANCOBDERCOMCDS

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Antigua Guatemala1140
CSD Municipal2130
Deportivo Mixco3312+9
Guastatoya4160
Club Xelajú5310+5
Aurora FC6612+3
Deportivo Marquense7512+4
San Pedro818-5
Coban Imperial9511-4
Deportivo Malacateco10611-4
Comunicaciones FC11411-3
CD Suchitepéquez12712-5
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.