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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Nacional · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Antigua Guatemala are favourites

Ahead of CSD Municipal on 26%. The model projects them to finish on 45 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 38.

Title chance

62%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Antigua Guatemala4538–51Antigua Guatemala: projected 45 points, likely range 38 to 51. Title chance 62%.
  • CSD Municipal4135–47CSD Municipal: projected 41 points, likely range 35 to 47. Title chance 26%.
  • San Pedro3630–43San Pedro: projected 36 points, likely range 30 to 43. Title chance 6%.
  • Guastatoya3529–41Guastatoya: projected 35 points, likely range 29 to 41. Title chance 4%.
  • Club Xelajú3327–40Club Xelajú: projected 33 points, likely range 27 to 40. Title chance 2%.
  • Deportivo Mixco3024–36Deportivo Mixco: projected 30 points, likely range 24 to 36. Title chance <1%.
  • Deportivo Marquense3024–36Deportivo Marquense: projected 30 points, likely range 24 to 36. Title chance <1%.
  • Aurora FC2620–32Aurora FC: projected 26 points, likely range 20 to 32. Title chance <1%.
  • Comunicaciones FC2519–31Comunicaciones FC: projected 25 points, likely range 19 to 31. Title chance <1%.
  • Deportivo Malacateco2519–31Deportivo Malacateco: projected 25 points, likely range 19 to 31. Title chance <1%.
  • Coban Imperial2115–27Coban Imperial: projected 21 points, likely range 15 to 27. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Suchitepéquez1913–25CD Suchitepéquez: projected 19 points, likely range 13 to 25. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Antigua Guatemala384145485162%
CSD Municipal353841444726%
San Pedro30333640436%
Guastatoya29323539414%
Club Xelajú27303337402%
Deportivo Mixco2426303336<1%
Deportivo Marquense2427303336<1%
Aurora FC2023262932<1%
Comunicaciones FC1922252831<1%
Deportivo Malacateco1921252831<1%
Coban Imperial15182125270%
CD Suchitepéquez13161922250%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Antigua Guatemala
  • CSD Municipal
  • San Pedro
  • Guastatoya
  • Club Xelajú
  • Deportivo Marquense
  • Deportivo Mixco
  • Aurora FC
  • Comunicaciones FC
  • Deportivo Malacateco
  • Coban Imperial
  • CD Suchitepéquez
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Antigua Guatemala62%36%0%100%0%
CSD Municipal26%67%0%100%0%
San Pedro6%63%0%100%0%
Guastatoya4%54%0%100%0%
Club Xelajú2%42%0%100%0%
Deportivo Marquense0%15%0%99%1%
Deportivo Mixco0%14%0%99%1%
Aurora FC0%4%0%94%6%
Comunicaciones FC0%3%0%92%8%
Deportivo Malacateco0%2%0%91%9%
Coban Imperial0%0%0%74%26%
CD Suchitepéquez0%0%0%50%50%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Antigua Guatemala+54
  • CSD Municipal+17
  • Coban Imperial-8
  • CD Suchitepéquez-8
  • Comunicaciones FC-8
  • Deportivo Malacateco-8
How they got here8 matchweeks
Position by matchweekANTCSDSANGUADEPDEOCLUAURCOMDERCOBCDS

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Antigua Guatemala1120
CSD Municipal2130
San Pedro3370
Guastatoya4140
Deportivo Mixco5312+7
Deportivo Marquense6512+5
Club Xelajú7510+3
Aurora FC8512+1
Comunicaciones FC949-1
Deportivo Malacateco10610-4
Coban Imperial11511-6
CD Suchitepéquez12712-5
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.