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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Promerica · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

C.S. Cartaginés are favourites

Ahead of Deportivo Saprissa on 39%. The model projects them to finish on 35 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 30.

Title chance

45%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • C.S. Cartaginés3530–40C.S. Cartaginés: projected 35 points, likely range 30 to 40. Title chance 45%.
  • Deportivo Saprissa3529–40Deportivo Saprissa: projected 35 points, likely range 29 to 40. Title chance 39%.
  • Sporting FC3025–36Sporting FC: projected 30 points, likely range 25 to 36. Title chance 10%.
  • Inter San Carlos2823–34Inter San Carlos: projected 28 points, likely range 23 to 34. Title chance 4%.
  • Deportiva San Carlos2520–30Deportiva San Carlos: projected 25 points, likely range 20 to 30. Title chance <1%.
  • LD Alajuelense2520–30LD Alajuelense: projected 25 points, likely range 20 to 30. Title chance <1%.
  • Puntarenas FC2015–25Puntarenas FC: projected 20 points, likely range 15 to 25. Title chance 0%.
  • Municipal Pérez Zeledón1914–25Municipal Pérez Zeledón: projected 19 points, likely range 14 to 25. Title chance <1%.
  • Club Sport Herediano1914–24Club Sport Herediano: projected 19 points, likely range 14 to 24. Title chance <1%.
  • Escorpiones1510–20Escorpiones: projected 15 points, likely range 10 to 20. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
C.S. Cartaginés303235384045%
Deportivo Saprissa293235384039%
Sporting FC252830333610%
Inter San Carlos23262831344%
Deportiva San Carlos2022252730<1%
LD Alajuelense2022252730<1%
Puntarenas FC15172022250%
Municipal Pérez Zeledón1417192225<1%
Club Sport Herediano1416192124<1%
Escorpiones10121518200%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • C.S. Cartaginés
  • Deportivo Saprissa
  • Sporting FC
  • Inter San Carlos
  • LD Alajuelense
  • Deportiva San Carlos
  • Puntarenas FC
  • Municipal Pérez Zeledón
  • Club Sport Herediano
  • Escorpiones
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
C.S. Cartaginés45%52%0%3%0%
Deportivo Saprissa39%57%0%3%0%
Sporting FC10%72%0%18%0%
Inter San Carlos4%60%0%36%0%
LD Alajuelense1%26%0%73%0%
Deportiva San Carlos1%23%0%76%0%
Puntarenas FC0%3%0%97%0%
Municipal Pérez Zeledón0%3%0%97%0%
Club Sport Herediano0%2%0%98%0%
Escorpiones0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • C.S. Cartaginés+35
  • Deportivo Saprissa+29
  • Puntarenas FC-10
  • Escorpiones-10
  • Municipal Pérez Zeledón-10
  • Club Sport Herediano-10
How they got here8 matchweeks
Position by matchweekCSCDEPSPOINTDEOLDAPUNMUNCLUESC

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
C.S. Cartaginés115+3
Deportivo Saprissa212-1
Sporting FC338+3
Inter San Carlos438+3
Deportiva San Carlos5510+3
LD Alajuelense626-1
Puntarenas FC7610+2
Municipal Pérez Zeledón8610+2
Club Sport Herediano9210-6
Escorpiones10210-8
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.