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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Promerica · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

C.S. Cartaginés are favourites

Ahead of Sporting FC on 30%. The model projects them to finish on 34 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 31.

Title chance

44%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • C.S. Cartaginés3431–37C.S. Cartaginés: projected 34 points, likely range 31 to 37. Title chance 44%.
  • Sporting FC3430–37Sporting FC: projected 34 points, likely range 30 to 37. Title chance 30%.
  • Deportivo Saprissa3229–35Deportivo Saprissa: projected 32 points, likely range 29 to 35. Title chance 22%.
  • LD Alajuelense2926–33LD Alajuelense: projected 29 points, likely range 26 to 33. Title chance 3%.
  • Deportiva San Carlos2824–31Deportiva San Carlos: projected 28 points, likely range 24 to 31. Title chance <1%.
  • Puntarenas FC2420–27Puntarenas FC: projected 24 points, likely range 20 to 27. Title chance <1%.
  • Inter San Carlos2219–25Inter San Carlos: projected 22 points, likely range 19 to 25. Title chance 0%.
  • Club Sport Herediano2016–23Club Sport Herediano: projected 20 points, likely range 16 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • Escorpiones1714–21Escorpiones: projected 17 points, likely range 14 to 21. Title chance 0%.
  • Municipal Pérez Zeledón1310–16Municipal Pérez Zeledón: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 16. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
C.S. Cartaginés313234363744%
Sporting FC303234363730%
Deportivo Saprissa293132343522%
LD Alajuelense26272931333%
Deportiva San Carlos2426282931<1%
Puntarenas FC2022242627<1%
Inter San Carlos19212224250%
Club Sport Herediano16182021230%
Escorpiones14161719210%
Municipal Pérez Zeledón10111314160%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • C.S. Cartaginés
  • Sporting FC
  • Deportivo Saprissa
  • LD Alajuelense
  • Deportiva San Carlos
  • Puntarenas FC
  • Inter San Carlos
  • Club Sport Herediano
  • Escorpiones
  • Municipal Pérez Zeledón
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
C.S. Cartaginés44%55%0%1%0%
Sporting FC30%68%0%2%0%
Deportivo Saprissa22%74%0%3%0%
LD Alajuelense3%64%0%32%0%
Deportiva San Carlos0%33%0%67%0%
Puntarenas FC0%4%0%96%0%
Inter San Carlos0%1%0%99%0%
Club Sport Herediano0%0%0%100%0%
Escorpiones0%0%0%100%0%
Municipal Pérez Zeledón0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • C.S. Cartaginés+34
  • Sporting FC+20
  • Deportivo Saprissa+12
  • Inter San Carlos-10
  • Club Sport Herediano-10
  • Escorpiones-10
How they got here14 matchweeks
Position by matchweekCSCSPODEPLDADEOPUNINTCLUESCMUN

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
C.S. Cartaginés115+3
Sporting FC228+4
Deportivo Saprissa313-2
LD Alajuelense426+1
Deportiva San Carlos5410+3
Puntarenas FC6610+3
Inter San Carlos7380
Club Sport Herediano8210-5
Escorpiones9210-7
Municipal Pérez Zeledón106100
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.