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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Ferencváros are favourites

Ahead of Benfica on 21%. The model projects them to finish on 19 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 15.

Title chance

27%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Ferencváros1915–22Ferencváros: projected 19 points, likely range 15 to 22. Title chance 27%.
  • Benfica1814–22Benfica: projected 18 points, likely range 14 to 22. Title chance 21%.
  • Leverkusen1814–21Bayer Leverkusen: projected 18 points, likely range 14 to 21. Title chance 17%.
  • Bournemouth1713–21AFC Bournemouth: projected 17 points, likely range 13 to 21. Title chance 12%.
  • Lyon1713–21Lyon: projected 17 points, likely range 13 to 21. Title chance 7%.
  • Olympiacos1613–21Olympiacos: projected 16 points, likely range 13 to 21. Title chance 7%.
  • Union St.Gilloise1410–17Union St.Gilloise: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 17. Title chance 1%.
  • Juventus1410–17Juventus: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 17. Title chance 2%.
  • Beşiktaş1410–18Beşiktaş: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance 2%.
  • Sunderland1411–19Sunderland: projected 14 points, likely range 11 to 19. Title chance 2%.
  • AZ Alkmaar1310–18AZ Alkmaar: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance 1%.
  • Omonia Nicosia128–16Omonia Nicosia: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Rennes128–16Rennes: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Celta Vigo127–15Celta Vigo: projected 12 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance 0%.
  • Crystal Palace118–15Crystal Palace: projected 11 points, likely range 8 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Levski Sofia118–15Levski Sofia: projected 11 points, likely range 8 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Dinamo Zagreb118–15Dinamo Zagreb: projected 11 points, likely range 8 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • NEC Nijmegen117–15NEC Nijmegen: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Salzburg117–14Salzburg: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Real Sociedad107–14Real Sociedad: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Sparta Prague107–14Sparta Prague: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Anderlecht107–14Anderlecht: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Milan106–13Milan: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Sturm Graz96–13Sturm Graz: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Hoffenheim96–13Hoffenheim: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • OFI Crete96–13OFI Crete: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Torreense96–13Torreense: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Jagiellonia Białystok85–12Jagiellonia Białystok: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • NK Celje73–11NK Celje: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 11. Title chance 0%.
  • Viktoria Plzeň73–11Viktoria Plzeň: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 11. Title chance 0%.
  • Celtic74–12Celtic: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva63–10Hapoel Beer Sheva: projected 6 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance 0%.
  • Marseille62–9Marseille: projected 6 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
  • Ararat Armenia62–10Ararat Armenia: projected 6 points, likely range 2 to 10. Title chance 0%.
  • Lillestrøm52–9Lillestrøm: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
  • Lech Poznań52–9Lech Poznań: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Ferencváros151719212227%
Benfica141618202221%
Bayer Leverkusen141618192117%
AFC Bournemouth131517192112%
Lyon13151719217%
Olympiacos13141619217%
Union St.Gilloise10121416171%
Juventus10121416172%
Beşiktaş10121416182%
Sunderland11131417192%
AZ Alkmaar10121316181%
Omonia Nicosia810121416<1%
Rennes810121416<1%
Celta Vigo7101213150%
Crystal Palace89111415<1%
Levski Sofia89111315<1%
Dinamo Zagreb89111315<1%
NEC Nijmegen79111315<1%
Salzburg78111314<1%
Real Sociedad78101214<1%
Sparta Prague78101314<1%
Anderlecht78101314<1%
Milan681012130%
Sturm Graz6791113<1%
Hoffenheim67911130%
OFI Crete6791113<1%
Torreense6791213<1%
Jagiellonia Białystok56810120%
NK Celje3579110%
Viktoria Plzeň3579110%
Celtic4579120%
Hapoel Beer Sheva3568100%
Marseille246790%
Ararat Armenia2468100%
Lillestrøm245790%
Lech Poznań245890%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Ferencváros
  • Benfica
  • Leverkusen
  • Bournemouth
  • Lyon
  • Olympiacos
  • Sunderland
  • Juventus
  • Union St.Gilloise
  • Beşiktaş
  • AZ Alkmaar
  • Omonia Nicosia
  • Rennes
  • Crystal Palace
  • Celta Vigo
  • Dinamo Zagreb
  • Levski Sofia
  • Real Sociedad
  • NEC Nijmegen
  • Sparta Prague
  • Anderlecht
  • Salzburg
  • Milan
  • Torreense
  • Hoffenheim
  • OFI Crete
  • Sturm Graz
  • Jagiellonia Białystok
  • Celtic
  • Viktoria Plzeň
  • NK Celje
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva
  • Ararat Armenia
  • Marseille
  • Lillestrøm
  • Lech Poznań
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Ferencváros27%41%0%100%0%
Benfica21%40%0%100%0%
Bayer Leverkusen17%39%0%100%0%
AFC Bournemouth12%36%0%100%0%
Lyon7%33%0%100%0%
Olympiacos7%27%0%100%0%
Sunderland2%14%0%100%0%
Juventus2%12%0%100%0%
Union St.Gilloise1%11%0%100%0%
Beşiktaş2%12%0%100%0%
AZ Alkmaar1%10%0%100%0%
Omonia Nicosia0%4%0%100%0%
Rennes0%4%0%100%0%
Crystal Palace0%3%0%100%0%
Celta Vigo0%2%0%100%0%
Dinamo Zagreb0%2%0%100%0%
Levski Sofia0%2%0%100%0%
Real Sociedad0%2%0%100%0%
NEC Nijmegen0%2%0%100%0%
Sparta Prague0%1%0%100%0%
Anderlecht0%1%0%100%0%
Salzburg0%1%0%100%0%
Milan0%1%0%100%0%
Torreense0%0%0%100%0%
Hoffenheim0%0%0%100%0%
OFI Crete0%0%0%100%0%
Sturm Graz0%0%0%100%0%
Jagiellonia Białystok0%0%0%100%0%
Celtic0%0%0%100%0%
Viktoria Plzeň0%0%0%100%0%
NK Celje0%0%0%100%0%
Hapoel Beer Sheva0%0%0%100%0%
Ararat Armenia0%0%0%100%0%
Marseille0%0%0%100%0%
Lillestrøm0%0%0%100%0%
Lech Poznań0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Ferencváros+24
  • Benfica+18
  • Leverkusen+14
  • Bournemouth+9
  • Olympiacos+5
  • Lyon+4
How they got here3 matchweeks
Position by matchweekBENLEVAFCFEROLYUNIJUVBEISUNAZAOMOOLRENRSOCRYSPALESDINSTUNECSALANDHOFMILCELOFIJAGTORNKCHAPLILLECVIKOMCETARA

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Benfica117+6
Bayer Leverkusen229+7
AFC Bournemouth3311+8
Ferencváros447+2
Olympiacos5513+8
Union St.Gilloise6512-1
Juventus717-6
Beşiktaş848-4
Sunderland9916+7
AZ Alkmaar101025+15
Omonia Nicosia11615+4
Lyon128120
Rennes131320+7
Real Sociedad141423+9
Crystal Palace15215-13
Sparta Prague16316-13
Levski Sofia171726+9
Dinamo Zagreb1814180
Sturm Graz191726-2
NEC Nijmegen202036+16
Salzburg211421-7
Anderlecht222228+2
Hoffenheim232330+7
Milan241631+7
Celta Vigo252529+2
OFI Crete26826-18
Jagiellonia Białystok271727-6
Torreense281028-18
NK Celje2929350
Hapoel Beer Sheva301930-11
Lillestrøm312231-9
Lech Poznań323236+3
Viktoria Plzeň333134+1
Marseille343234-2
Celtic352835-7
Ararat Armenia363336-3
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.