Europa League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Lyon are favourites

Ahead of Sparta Prague on 7%. The model projects them to finish on 18 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 14.

Title chance

46%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Lyon1814–22Lyon: projected 18 points, likely range 14 to 22. Title chance 46%.
Sparta Prague149–18Sparta Prague: projected 14 points, likely range 9 to 18. Title chance 7%.
Ferencváros138–17Ferencváros: projected 13 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
Olympiacos139–17Olympiacos: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 17. Title chance 4%.
Salzburg139–18Salzburg: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 18. Title chance 5%.
Sunderland139–17Sunderland: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 17. Title chance 3%.
Celtic138–17Celtic: projected 13 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
Benfica128–17Benfica: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 3%.
OFI Crete128–17OFI Crete: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 3%.
Leverkusen128–16Bayer Leverkusen: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance 2%.
Omonia Nicosia128–16Omonia Nicosia: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance 2%.
Dinamo Zagreb127–16Dinamo Zagreb: projected 12 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance 2%.
Celta Vigo127–16Celta Vigo: projected 12 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance 2%.
Viktoria Plzeň128–17Viktoria Plzeň: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 2%.
NEC Nijmegen116–15NEC Nijmegen: projected 11 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance 1%.
Crystal Palace105–14Crystal Palace: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
Juventus106–15Juventus: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
Beşiktaş106–15Beşiktaş: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance 1%.
Torreense106–15Torreense: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
Bournemouth106–15AFC Bournemouth: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
Hapoel Beer Sheva106–14Hapoel Beer Sheva: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 14. Title chance <1%.
Rennes106–15Rennes: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
Real Sociedad105–14Real Sociedad: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
Marseille106–15Marseille: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
Lech Poznań106–15Lech Poznań: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance 1%.
Union St.Gilloise95–14Union St.Gilloise: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
Sturm Graz95–13Sturm Graz: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
Anderlecht95–13Anderlecht: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
Levski Sofia95–13Levski Sofia: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
AZ Alkmaar95–13AZ Alkmaar: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
NK Celje95–13NK Celje: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
Lillestrøm95–14Lillestrøm: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
Ararat Armenia95–13Ararat Armenia: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
Jagiellonia Białystok84–12Jagiellonia Białystok: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance <1%.
Hoffenheim84–13Hoffenheim: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
Milan84–13Milan: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Lyon	14	16	18	20	22	46%
Sparta Prague	9	11	14	16	18	7%
Ferencváros	8	10	13	15	17	4%
Olympiacos	9	11	13	15	17	4%
Salzburg	9	11	13	16	18	5%
Sunderland	9	11	13	15	17	3%
Celtic	8	10	13	15	17	4%
Benfica	8	10	12	15	17	3%
OFI Crete	8	10	12	15	17	3%
Bayer Leverkusen	8	10	12	14	16	2%
Omonia Nicosia	8	9	12	14	16	2%
Dinamo Zagreb	7	9	12	14	16	2%
Celta Vigo	7	9	12	14	16	2%
Viktoria Plzeň	8	9	12	14	17	2%
NEC Nijmegen	6	8	11	13	15	1%
Crystal Palace	5	7	10	12	14	<1%
Juventus	6	8	10	12	15	<1%
Beşiktaş	6	8	10	13	15	1%
Torreense	6	7	10	12	15	<1%
AFC Bournemouth	6	8	10	12	15	<1%
Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	8	10	12	14	<1%
Rennes	6	8	10	13	15	<1%
Real Sociedad	5	7	10	12	14	<1%
Marseille	6	8	10	12	15	<1%
Lech Poznań	6	8	10	12	15	1%
Union St.Gilloise	5	7	9	11	14	<1%
Sturm Graz	5	7	9	11	13	<1%
Anderlecht	5	7	9	11	13	<1%
Levski Sofia	5	7	9	11	13	<1%
AZ Alkmaar	5	7	9	11	13	<1%
NK Celje	5	7	9	11	13	<1%
Lillestrøm	5	7	9	12	14	<1%
Ararat Armenia	5	7	9	11	13	<1%
Jagiellonia Białystok	4	6	8	10	12	<1%
Hoffenheim	4	6	8	11	13	<1%
Milan	4	6	8	11	13	<1%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Lyon
Sparta Prague
Salzburg
Olympiacos
Sunderland
Ferencváros
Celtic
Benfica
OFI Crete
Leverkusen
Viktoria Plzeň
Dinamo Zagreb
Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
Rennes
Beşiktaş
Bournemouth
Marseille
Lech Poznań
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Juventus
Torreense
Crystal Palace
Real Sociedad
Lillestrøm
Union St.Gilloise
Anderlecht
AZ Alkmaar
Levski Sofia
NK Celje
Ararat Armenia
Sturm Graz
Milan
Hoffenheim
Jagiellonia Białystok

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Lyon	46%	34%	0%	100%	0%
Sparta Prague	7%	22%	0%	100%	0%
Salzburg	5%	19%	0%	100%	0%
Olympiacos	4%	17%	0%	100%	0%
Sunderland	3%	15%	0%	100%	0%
Ferencváros	4%	16%	0%	100%	0%
Celtic	4%	17%	0%	100%	0%
Benfica	3%	14%	0%	100%	0%
OFI Crete	3%	14%	0%	100%	0%
Bayer Leverkusen	2%	12%	0%	100%	0%
Viktoria Plzeň	2%	12%	0%	100%	0%
Dinamo Zagreb	2%	10%	0%	100%	0%
Celta Vigo	2%	10%	0%	100%	0%
Omonia Nicosia	2%	10%	0%	100%	0%
NEC Nijmegen	1%	7%	0%	100%	0%
Rennes	1%	5%	0%	100%	0%
Beşiktaş	1%	6%	0%	100%	0%
AFC Bournemouth	1%	5%	0%	100%	0%
Marseille	1%	5%	0%	100%	0%
Lech Poznań	1%	5%	0%	100%	0%
Hapoel Beer Sheva	1%	4%	0%	100%	0%
Juventus	1%	5%	0%	100%	0%
Torreense	1%	5%	0%	100%	0%
Crystal Palace	1%	4%	0%	100%	0%
Real Sociedad	1%	4%	0%	100%	0%
Lillestrøm	1%	3%	0%	100%	0%
Union St.Gilloise	0%	3%	0%	100%	0%
Anderlecht	0%	3%	0%	100%	0%
AZ Alkmaar	0%	2%	0%	100%	0%
Levski Sofia	0%	2%	0%	100%	0%
NK Celje	0%	2%	0%	100%	0%
Ararat Armenia	0%	2%	0%	100%	0%
Sturm Graz	0%	1%	0%	100%	0%
Milan	0%	1%	0%	100%	0%
Hoffenheim	0%	1%	0%	100%	0%
Jagiellonia Białystok	0%	1%	0%	100%	0%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Lyon+44
Sparta Prague+4
Milan-3
Sturm Graz-3
AZ Alkmaar-3
Hoffenheim-3

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.