Superligaen · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
FC København are favourites
Ahead of FC Midtjylland on 17%. The model projects them to finish on 45 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 39.
Title chance
65%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- FC København4539–51FC København: projected 45 points, likely range 39 to 51. Title chance 65%.
- FC Midtjylland4033–46FC Midtjylland: projected 40 points, likely range 33 to 46. Title chance 17%.
- Nordsjælland3933–45Nordsjælland: projected 39 points, likely range 33 to 45. Title chance 14%.
- Viborg3528–41Viborg: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 41. Title chance 3%.
- Brøndby IF3125–37Brøndby IF: projected 31 points, likely range 25 to 37. Title chance <1%.
- AC Horsens3024–36AC Horsens: projected 30 points, likely range 24 to 36. Title chance <1%.
- Randers FC2822–34Randers FC: projected 28 points, likely range 22 to 34. Title chance <1%.
- OB2620–32OB: projected 26 points, likely range 20 to 32. Title chance <1%.
- Lyngby2620–32Lyngby: projected 26 points, likely range 20 to 32. Title chance <1%.
- Silkeborg2418–31Silkeborg: projected 24 points, likely range 18 to 31. Title chance <1%.
- AGF2216–28AGF: projected 22 points, likely range 16 to 28. Title chance 0%.
- Sønderjyske1711–23Sønderjyske: projected 17 points, likely range 11 to 23. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC København | 39 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 51 | 65% |
| FC Midtjylland | 33 | 36 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 17% |
| Nordsjælland | 33 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 45 | 14% |
| Viborg | 28 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 3% |
| Brøndby IF | 25 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | <1% |
| AC Horsens | 24 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 36 | <1% |
| Randers FC | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 34 | <1% |
| OB | 20 | 22 | 26 | 29 | 32 | <1% |
| Lyngby | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 | <1% |
| Silkeborg | 18 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 31 | <1% |
| AGF | 16 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 0% |
| Sønderjyske | 11 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- FC København
- FC Midtjylland
- Nordsjælland
- Viborg
- Brøndby IF
- AC Horsens
- Randers FC
- Lyngby
- OB
- Silkeborg
- AGF
- Sønderjyske
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC København | 65% | 34% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FC Midtjylland | 17% | 71% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Nordsjælland | 14% | 73% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Viborg | 3% | 54% | 0% | 85% | 15% |
| Brøndby IF | 1% | 23% | 0% | 59% | 41% |
| AC Horsens | 0% | 21% | 0% | 55% | 45% |
| Randers FC | 0% | 11% | 0% | 37% | 63% |
| Lyngby | 0% | 6% | 0% | 25% | 75% |
| OB | 0% | 4% | 0% | 21% | 79% |
| Silkeborg | 0% | 3% | 0% | 15% | 85% |
| AGF | 0% | 1% | 0% | 8% | 92% |
| Sønderjyske | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- FC København+57
- FC Midtjylland+9
- AGF-8
- Sønderjyske-8
- Silkeborg-8
- OB-8
How they got here8 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC København | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 |
| FC Midtjylland | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Nordsjælland | 3 | 3 | 7 | +1 |
| Viborg | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 |
| Brøndby IF | 5 | 1 | 8 | +3 |
| AC Horsens | 6 | 6 | 12 | +3 |
| Randers FC | 7 | 4 | 10 | -1 |
| OB | 8 | 5 | 12 | +4 |
| Lyngby | 9 | 8 | 11 | +2 |
| Silkeborg | 10 | 6 | 11 | -3 |
| AGF | 11 | 5 | 11 | -6 |
| Sønderjyske | 12 | 10 | 12 | -2 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.