Superligaen · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
FC København are favourites
Ahead of FC Midtjylland on 45%. The model projects them to finish on 44 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 39.
Title chance
47%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- FC Midtjylland4440–50FC Midtjylland: projected 44 points, likely range 40 to 50. Title chance 45%.
- FC København4439–49FC København: projected 44 points, likely range 39 to 49. Title chance 47%.
- Brøndby IF3833–43Brøndby IF: projected 38 points, likely range 33 to 43. Title chance 4%.
- Viborg3631–41Viborg: projected 36 points, likely range 31 to 41. Title chance 3%.
- Nordsjælland3429–39Nordsjælland: projected 34 points, likely range 29 to 39. Title chance <1%.
- OB2823–33OB: projected 28 points, likely range 23 to 33. Title chance 0%.
- AC Horsens2823–33AC Horsens: projected 28 points, likely range 23 to 33. Title chance 0%.
- AGF2419–29AGF: projected 24 points, likely range 19 to 29. Title chance 0%.
- Randers FC2217–27Randers FC: projected 22 points, likely range 17 to 27. Title chance 0%.
- Silkeborg2117–26Silkeborg: projected 21 points, likely range 17 to 26. Title chance 0%.
- Lyngby2116–26Lyngby: projected 21 points, likely range 16 to 26. Title chance 0%.
- Sønderjyske2015–26Sønderjyske: projected 20 points, likely range 15 to 26. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 40 | 42 | 44 | 47 | 50 | 45% |
| FC København | 39 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 49 | 47% |
| Brøndby IF | 33 | 35 | 38 | 40 | 43 | 4% |
| Viborg | 31 | 34 | 36 | 39 | 41 | 3% |
| Nordsjælland | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 39 | <1% |
| OB | 23 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 0% |
| AC Horsens | 23 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 0% |
| AGF | 19 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 0% |
| Randers FC | 17 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 0% |
| Silkeborg | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 0% |
| Lyngby | 16 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 0% |
| Sønderjyske | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- FC Midtjylland
- FC København
- Brøndby IF
- Viborg
- Nordsjælland
- AC Horsens
- OB
- AGF
- Randers FC
- Silkeborg
- Lyngby
- Sønderjyske
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 45% | 54% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FC København | 47% | 52% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Brøndby IF | 4% | 72% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Viborg | 3% | 66% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Nordsjælland | 1% | 46% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| AC Horsens | 0% | 5% | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| OB | 0% | 5% | 0% | 39% | 61% |
| AGF | 0% | 1% | 0% | 14% | 86% |
| Randers FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% |
| Silkeborg | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| Lyngby | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| Sønderjyske | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- FC København+39
- FC Midtjylland+37
- OB-8
- AC Horsens-8
- AGF-8
- Silkeborg-8
How they got here12 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| FC København | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Viborg | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Nordsjælland | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Brøndby IF | 5 | 1 | 8 | +3 |
| AC Horsens | 6 | 6 | 12 | +3 |
| OB | 7 | 5 | 12 | +5 |
| AGF | 8 | 5 | 11 | -3 |
| Silkeborg | 9 | 6 | 11 | -2 |
| Randers FC | 10 | 4 | 10 | -4 |
| Lyngby | 11 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Sønderjyske | 12 | 10 | 12 | -2 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.