Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Al Hilal are favourites

Ahead of Al Nassr FC on 8%. The model projects them to finish on 85 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 78.

Title chance

86%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Al Hilal8578–91Al Hilal: projected 85 points, likely range 78 to 91. Title chance 86%.
  • Al Nassr FC7567–82Al Nassr FC: projected 75 points, likely range 67 to 82. Title chance 8%.
  • Al Qadsiah7466–80Al Qadsiah: projected 74 points, likely range 66 to 80. Title chance 5%.
  • Al Ahli6760–75Al Ahli: projected 67 points, likely range 60 to 75. Title chance <1%.
  • Al Ittihad6557–72Al Ittihad: projected 65 points, likely range 57 to 72. Title chance <1%.
  • Neom SC5345–61Neom SC: projected 53 points, likely range 45 to 61. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Shabab5244–59Al Shabab: projected 52 points, likely range 44 to 59. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Ettifaq4538–53Al-Ettifaq: projected 45 points, likely range 38 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Khaleej4436–51Al Khaleej: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Kholood4133–48Al Kholood: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Diriyah3932–46Al Diriyah: projected 39 points, likely range 32 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Faisaly3427–42Al-Faisaly: projected 34 points, likely range 27 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Riyadh3326–40Al Riyadh: projected 33 points, likely range 26 to 40. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Fayha3225–39Al-Fayha: projected 32 points, likely range 25 to 39. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Hazem3225–39Al Hazem: projected 32 points, likely range 25 to 39. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Fateh FC2721–35Al Fateh FC: projected 27 points, likely range 21 to 35. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Taawoun2721–35Al-Taawoun: projected 27 points, likely range 21 to 35. Title chance 0%.
  • Abha2619–33Abha: projected 26 points, likely range 19 to 33. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Al Hilal788185889186%
Al Nassr FC67717579828%
Al Qadsiah66707477805%
Al Ahli6064677175<1%
Al Ittihad5761656972<1%
Neom SC45495357610%
Al Shabab44485256590%
Al-Ettifaq38414549530%
Al Khaleej36404448510%
Al Kholood33374144480%
Al Diriyah32353943460%
Al-Faisaly27313438420%
Al Riyadh26293337400%
Al-Fayha25283236390%
Al Hazem25283236390%
Al Fateh FC21242731350%
Al-Taawoun21242731350%
Abha19222630330%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Al Hilal
  • Al Nassr FC
  • Al Qadsiah
  • Al Ahli
  • Al Ittihad
  • Neom SC
  • Al Shabab
  • Al-Ettifaq
  • Al Khaleej
  • Al Kholood
  • Al Diriyah
  • Al-Faisaly
  • Al Riyadh
  • Al-Fayha
  • Al Hazem
  • Al Fateh FC
  • Al-Taawoun
  • Abha
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Al Hilal86%14%0%0%0%
Al Nassr FC8%87%5%0%0%
Al Qadsiah5%89%6%1%0%
Al Ahli1%65%29%6%0%
Al Ittihad0%42%45%12%0%
Neom SC0%2%8%90%0%
Al Shabab0%1%7%92%0%
Al-Ettifaq0%0%1%99%0%
Al Khaleej0%0%0%99%1%
Al Kholood0%0%0%97%3%
Al Diriyah0%0%0%96%4%
Al-Faisaly0%0%0%83%17%
Al Riyadh0%0%0%73%27%
Al-Fayha0%0%0%72%28%
Al Hazem0%0%0%72%28%
Al Fateh FC0%0%0%39%61%
Al-Taawoun0%0%0%39%61%
Abha0%0%0%30%70%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Al Hilal+80
  • Neom SC-6
  • Al-Ettifaq-6
  • Al Diriyah-6
  • Al Khaleej-6
  • Al Shabab-6
How they got here10 matchweeks
Position by matchweekALHALQALNALINEOALAALEALDALKALSALOALRALFALZALLALTALWABH

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Al Hilal113+2
Al Qadsiah228+2
Al Nassr FC313-2
Al Ittihad429+5
Neom SC558+1
Al Ahli639+1
Al-Ettifaq729-5
Al Diriyah8614+6
Al Khaleej9916+2
Al Shabab101017+7
Al Kholood11411-3
Al Riyadh121118+4
Al-Fayha1311160
Al Hazem14514-9
Al-Faisaly1514180
Al Fateh FC161518+2
Al-Taawoun171017-7
Abha181218-6
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.