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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Al Hilal are favourites

Ahead of Al Nassr FC on 19%. The model projects them to finish on 77 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 70.

Title chance

63%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Al Hilal7770–85Al Hilal: projected 77 points, likely range 70 to 85. Title chance 63%.
  • Al Nassr FC7264–79Al Nassr FC: projected 72 points, likely range 64 to 79. Title chance 19%.
  • Al Qadsiah7061–77Al Qadsiah: projected 70 points, likely range 61 to 77. Title chance 11%.
  • Al Ahli6658–74Al Ahli: projected 66 points, likely range 58 to 74. Title chance 5%.
  • Al Ittihad6153–69Al Ittihad: projected 61 points, likely range 53 to 69. Title chance <1%.
  • Neom SC5748–65Neom SC: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 65. Title chance <1%.
  • Al Kholood4739–56Al Kholood: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Diriyah4739–56Al Diriyah: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Ettifaq4435–52Al-Ettifaq: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Hazem3730–46Al Hazem: projected 37 points, likely range 30 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Riyadh3628–44Al Riyadh: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Fayha3628–44Al-Fayha: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Khaleej3426–43Al Khaleej: projected 34 points, likely range 26 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Shabab3426–43Al Shabab: projected 34 points, likely range 26 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Al Fateh FC3325–41Al Fateh FC: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Taawoun3325–41Al-Taawoun: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Al-Faisaly3022–38Al-Faisaly: projected 30 points, likely range 22 to 38. Title chance 0%.
  • Abha2921–37Abha: projected 29 points, likely range 21 to 37. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Al Hilal707377818563%
Al Nassr FC646872767919%
Al Qadsiah616570747711%
Al Ahli58626671745%
Al Ittihad5357616569<1%
Neom SC4852576165<1%
Al Kholood39434752560%
Al Diriyah39434751560%
Al-Ettifaq35394448520%
Al Hazem30333742460%
Al Riyadh28323640440%
Al-Fayha28323640440%
Al Khaleej26303439430%
Al Shabab26303439430%
Al Fateh FC25293337410%
Al-Taawoun25293337410%
Al-Faisaly22263034380%
Abha21252933370%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Al Hilal
  • Al Nassr FC
  • Al Qadsiah
  • Al Ahli
  • Al Ittihad
  • Neom SC
  • Al Kholood
  • Al Diriyah
  • Al-Ettifaq
  • Al Hazem
  • Al-Fayha
  • Al Riyadh
  • Al Khaleej
  • Al Shabab
  • Al-Taawoun
  • Al Fateh FC
  • Al-Faisaly
  • Abha
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Al Hilal63%35%1%0%0%
Al Nassr FC19%73%6%2%0%
Al Qadsiah11%75%10%4%0%
Al Ahli5%68%18%9%0%
Al Ittihad1%33%35%32%0%
Neom SC0%14%22%64%0%
Al Kholood0%1%3%96%0%
Al Diriyah0%1%4%95%1%
Al-Ettifaq0%0%1%96%2%
Al Hazem0%0%0%86%14%
Al-Fayha0%0%0%80%20%
Al Riyadh0%0%0%80%19%
Al Khaleej0%0%0%71%29%
Al Shabab0%0%0%72%28%
Al-Taawoun0%0%0%66%34%
Al Fateh FC0%0%0%64%36%
Al-Faisaly0%0%0%45%55%
Abha0%0%0%39%61%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Al Hilal+58
  • Al Nassr FC+14
  • Al Kholood-6
  • Al Diriyah-6
  • Al-Ettifaq-6
  • Al Hazem-6
How they got here7 matchweeks
Position by matchweekALHALIALNALQNEOALAALKALDALEALZALRALFALLALSALTALYALWABH

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Al Hilal113+2
Al Ittihad229+7
Al Nassr FC313-2
Al Qadsiah4380
Neom SC558+1
Al Ahli639+1
Al Kholood748+1
Al Diriyah8614+6
Al-Ettifaq929-7
Al Hazem10511-5
Al Riyadh111118+5
Al-Fayha121116+1
Al Khaleej131016-2
Al Shabab141317+3
Al Fateh FC151518+3
Al-Faisaly161418-1
Al-Taawoun171017-7
Abha181218-6
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.