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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga MX · 2026/2027 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons

Toluca are favourites

Ahead of CF América on 14%. The model projects them to finish on 35 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 29.

Title chance

53%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Toluca3529–39Toluca: projected 35 points, likely range 29 to 39. Title chance 53%.
  • Chivas3125–36Chivas: projected 31 points, likely range 25 to 36. Title chance 13%.
  • América3025–36CF América: projected 30 points, likely range 25 to 36. Title chance 14%.
  • Tijuana2924–34Tijuana: projected 29 points, likely range 24 to 34. Title chance 7%.
  • Cruz Azul2823–33Cruz Azul: projected 28 points, likely range 23 to 33. Title chance 4%.
  • Querétaro2823–34Querétaro FC: projected 28 points, likely range 23 to 34. Title chance 5%.
  • León2621–31León: projected 26 points, likely range 21 to 31. Title chance 2%.
  • Puebla2520–30Puebla: projected 25 points, likely range 20 to 30. Title chance <1%.
  • Atlas2419–29Atlas: projected 24 points, likely range 19 to 29. Title chance <1%.
  • Pachuca2419–29Pachuca: projected 24 points, likely range 19 to 29. Title chance <1%.
  • Monterrey2419–29Monterrey: projected 24 points, likely range 19 to 29. Title chance <1%.
  • Pumas2218–28Pumas: projected 22 points, likely range 18 to 28. Title chance <1%.
  • Necaxa2015–25Necaxa: projected 20 points, likely range 15 to 25. Title chance <1%.
  • Atlante1914–24Atlante: projected 19 points, likely range 14 to 24. Title chance <1%.
  • Tigres1813–23Tigres: projected 18 points, likely range 13 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • San Luis1813–23Atlético de San Luis: projected 18 points, likely range 13 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • Santos1510–20Santos Laguna: projected 15 points, likely range 10 to 20. Title chance 0%.
  • Juárez84–13FC Juárez: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Toluca293235373953%
Chivas252831333613%
CF América252830333614%
Tijuana24262932347%
Cruz Azul23252831334%
Querétaro FC23252831345%
León21232629312%
Puebla2022252730<1%
Atlas1921242729<1%
Pachuca1921242629<1%
Monterrey1921242729<1%
Pumas1820222528<1%
Necaxa1518202325<1%
Atlante1417192224<1%
Tigres13151820230%
Atlético de San Luis13151820230%
Santos Laguna10121518200%
FC Juárez46811130%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Toluca
  • Chivas
  • América
  • Tijuana
  • Querétaro
  • Cruz Azul
  • León
  • Puebla
  • Pachuca
  • Monterrey
  • Atlas
  • Pumas
  • Necaxa
  • Atlante
  • Tigres
  • San Luis
  • Santos
  • Juárez
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Toluca53%38%0%100%0%
Chivas13%51%0%100%0%
CF América14%47%0%100%0%
Tijuana7%39%0%100%0%
Querétaro FC5%34%0%100%0%
Cruz Azul4%30%0%100%0%
León2%18%0%100%0%
Puebla1%11%0%100%0%
Pachuca1%9%0%100%0%
Monterrey1%9%0%100%0%
Atlas0%8%0%100%0%
Pumas0%4%0%100%0%
Necaxa0%1%0%100%0%
Atlante0%1%0%100%0%
Tigres0%0%0%100%0%
Atlético de San Luis0%0%0%100%0%
Santos Laguna0%0%0%100%0%
FC Juárez0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Toluca+47
  • América+9
  • Chivas+7
  • Tigres-6
  • San Luis-6
  • Santos-6
How they got here7 matchweeks
Position by matchweekTOLCHICFACRUQUELENTIJPUEATLPACPUMMONNECTIGATAATTSANFCJ

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Toluca117+2
Chivas2217+15
CF América318+5
Cruz Azul4212+1
Querétaro FC5514+9
León6617+5
Tijuana717-5
Puebla8511+1
Atlas929-5
Pachuca10115-9
Pumas11418+7
Monterrey12312-6
Necaxa13413-6
Tigres141416+2
Atlante151015-2
Atlético de San Luis161216-4
Santos Laguna171017-7
FC Juárez181518-3
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.