Liga MX · 2026/2027 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons
CF América are favourites
Ahead of Cruz Azul on 26%. The model projects them to finish on 32 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 30.
Title chance
44%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- América3230–35CF América: projected 32 points, likely range 30 to 35. Title chance 44%.
- Chivas3229–35Chivas: projected 32 points, likely range 29 to 35. Title chance 25%.
- Cruz Azul3229–35Cruz Azul: projected 32 points, likely range 29 to 35. Title chance 26%.
- Atlas3028–33Atlas: projected 30 points, likely range 28 to 33. Title chance 4%.
- Toluca2724–30Toluca: projected 27 points, likely range 24 to 30. Title chance <1%.
- Tijuana2522–28Tijuana: projected 25 points, likely range 22 to 28. Title chance 0%.
- León2522–28León: projected 25 points, likely range 22 to 28. Title chance 0%.
- Santos2522–28Santos Laguna: projected 25 points, likely range 22 to 28. Title chance 0%.
- Monterrey2522–28Monterrey: projected 25 points, likely range 22 to 28. Title chance <1%.
- Querétaro2421–27Querétaro FC: projected 24 points, likely range 21 to 27. Title chance 0%.
- Pumas2320–26Pumas: projected 23 points, likely range 20 to 26. Title chance 0%.
- Pachuca2219–25Pachuca: projected 22 points, likely range 19 to 25. Title chance 0%.
- San Luis2219–25Atlético de San Luis: projected 22 points, likely range 19 to 25. Title chance 0%.
- Puebla1916–22Puebla: projected 19 points, likely range 16 to 22. Title chance 0%.
- Tigres1715–19Tigres: projected 17 points, likely range 15 to 19. Title chance 0%.
- Atlante1714–20Atlante: projected 17 points, likely range 14 to 20. Title chance 0%.
- Necaxa1310–16Necaxa: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 16. Title chance 0%.
- Juárez108–12FC Juárez: projected 10 points, likely range 8 to 12. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF América | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 44% |
| Chivas | 29 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 25% |
| Cruz Azul | 29 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 26% |
| Atlas | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 4% |
| Toluca | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 30 | <1% |
| Tijuana | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 0% |
| León | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 0% |
| Santos Laguna | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 0% |
| Monterrey | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | <1% |
| Querétaro FC | 21 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 0% |
| Pumas | 20 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 0% |
| Pachuca | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 0% |
| Atlético de San Luis | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 0% |
| Puebla | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 0% |
| Tigres | 15 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 0% |
| Atlante | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 0% |
| Necaxa | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 0% |
| FC Juárez | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- América
- Cruz Azul
- Chivas
- Atlas
- Toluca
- Monterrey
- Tijuana
- León
- Santos
- Querétaro
- Pumas
- Pachuca
- San Luis
- Puebla
- Tigres
- Atlante
- Necaxa
- Juárez
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF América | 44% | 55% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Cruz Azul | 26% | 71% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Chivas | 25% | 71% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Atlas | 4% | 72% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Toluca | 0% | 19% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Monterrey | 0% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Tijuana | 0% | 2% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| León | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Santos Laguna | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Querétaro FC | 0% | 2% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Pumas | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Pachuca | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Atlético de San Luis | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Puebla | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Tigres | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Atlante | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Necaxa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FC Juárez | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- América+39
- Cruz Azul+21
- Chivas+20
- Tijuana-6
- León-6
- Santos-6
How they got here14 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF América | 1 | 1 | 8 | +7 |
| Chivas | 2 | 2 | 17 | +15 |
| Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 12 | +2 |
| Atlas | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Toluca | 5 | 1 | 7 | -2 |
| Tijuana | 6 | 1 | 10 | -4 |
| León | 7 | 5 | 17 | +4 |
| Santos Laguna | 8 | 8 | 17 | +2 |
| Monterrey | 9 | 3 | 12 | -3 |
| Pumas | 10 | 4 | 18 | +8 |
| Querétaro FC | 11 | 3 | 14 | +3 |
| Pachuca | 12 | 1 | 16 | -11 |
| Atlético de San Luis | 13 | 11 | 16 | -1 |
| Puebla | 14 | 5 | 14 | -5 |
| Tigres | 15 | 13 | 16 | +1 |
| Atlante | 16 | 10 | 16 | -3 |
| Necaxa | 17 | 4 | 17 | -10 |
| FC Juárez | 18 | 15 | 18 | -3 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.