Bundesliga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Bayern München are favourites

Ahead of RB Leipzig on 4%. The model projects them to finish on 78 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 70.

Title chance

94%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Bayern München7870–85Bayern München: projected 78 points, likely range 70 to 85. Title chance 94%.
RB Leipzig6354–71RB Leipzig: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 71. Title chance 4%.
Dortmund6152–70Borussia Dortmund: projected 61 points, likely range 52 to 70. Title chance 2%.
Werder Bremen5445–62Werder Bremen: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 62. Title chance <1%.
Hoffenheim5244–61Hoffenheim: projected 52 points, likely range 44 to 61. Title chance <1%.
Freiburg5143–60Freiburg: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 60. Title chance <1%.
Leverkusen5142–59Bayer Leverkusen: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
VfB Stuttgart5042–59VfB Stuttgart: projected 50 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
Frankfurt4738–55Eintracht Frankfurt: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Mainz4537–54Mainz 05: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 54. Title chance <1%.
Augsburg4435–52Augsburg: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance 0%.
Köln4334–511. FC Köln: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Elversberg4133–49Elversberg: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 49. Title chance 0%.
Paderborn3830–46Paderborn: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 46. Title chance 0%.
M'gladbach3628–44Borussia Mönchengladbach: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
Hamburger SV3528–44Hamburger SV: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
Union Berlin3527–43Union Berlin: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 0%.
Schalke 042821–36Schalke 04: projected 28 points, likely range 21 to 36. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Bayern München	70	74	78	82	85	94%
RB Leipzig	54	58	63	67	71	4%
Borussia Dortmund	52	57	61	66	70	2%
Werder Bremen	45	49	54	58	62	<1%
Hoffenheim	44	48	52	57	61	<1%
Freiburg	43	47	51	56	60	<1%
Bayer Leverkusen	42	46	51	55	59	<1%
VfB Stuttgart	42	46	50	55	59	<1%
Eintracht Frankfurt	38	42	47	51	55	<1%
Mainz 05	37	41	45	50	54	<1%
Augsburg	35	39	44	48	52	0%
1. FC Köln	34	38	43	47	51	0%
Elversberg	33	37	41	45	49	0%
Paderborn	30	33	38	42	46	0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach	28	32	36	40	44	0%
Hamburger SV	28	31	35	40	44	0%
Union Berlin	27	31	35	39	43	0%
Schalke 04	21	24	28	32	36	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Bayern München
RB Leipzig
Dortmund
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
Freiburg
Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
Frankfurt
Mainz
Augsburg
Köln
Elversberg
Paderborn
M'gladbach
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
Schalke 04

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Bayern München	94%	6%	0%	0%	0%
RB Leipzig	4%	80%	11%	5%	0%
Borussia Dortmund	2%	74%	15%	9%	0%
Werder Bremen	0%	32%	28%	40%	0%
Hoffenheim	0%	27%	27%	46%	0%
Freiburg	0%	23%	24%	53%	1%
Bayer Leverkusen	0%	19%	24%	55%	1%
VfB Stuttgart	0%	19%	24%	57%	1%
Eintracht Frankfurt	0%	7%	14%	75%	3%
Mainz 05	0%	5%	11%	78%	5%
Augsburg	0%	4%	9%	80%	7%
1. FC Köln	0%	2%	6%	81%	10%
Elversberg	0%	1%	4%	79%	17%
Paderborn	0%	0%	1%	67%	32%
Borussia Mönchengladbach	0%	0%	1%	59%	40%
Hamburger SV	0%	0%	1%	52%	48%
Union Berlin	0%	0%	0%	51%	49%
Schalke 04	0%	0%	0%	15%	85%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Bayern München+88
Elversberg-6
Augsburg-6
Köln-6
Paderborn-6
Hamburger SV-6

How they got here8 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Bayern München	1	1	6	0
Borussia Dortmund	2	1	5	+3
Freiburg	3	1	3	-1
RB Leipzig	4	3	9	-1
Werder Bremen	5	5	15	+10
Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	12	+6
Elversberg	7	4	9	-1
Eintracht Frankfurt	8	8	14	0
Mainz 05	9	5	11	+2
Augsburg	10	1	10	-6
VfB Stuttgart	11	9	18	+7
Hoffenheim	12	10	17	+1
1. FC Köln	13	7	13	-6
Paderborn	14	10	16	-4
Hamburger SV	15	9	18	-1
Union Berlin	16	9	17	-7
Schalke 04	17	11	17	-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach	18	17	18	-1

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.