Bundesliga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Bayern München are favourites

Ahead of Borussia Dortmund on 11%. The model projects them to finish on 79 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 70.

Title chance

84%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Bayern München7970–86Bayern München: projected 79 points, likely range 70 to 86. Title chance 84%.
Dortmund6858–76Borussia Dortmund: projected 68 points, likely range 58 to 76. Title chance 11%.
RB Leipzig6152–70RB Leipzig: projected 61 points, likely range 52 to 70. Title chance 2%.
Leverkusen6151–70Bayer Leverkusen: projected 61 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance 2%.
Freiburg5849–67Freiburg: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 67. Title chance <1%.
VfB Stuttgart5141–60VfB Stuttgart: projected 51 points, likely range 41 to 60. Title chance <1%.
Hoffenheim5040–59Hoffenheim: projected 50 points, likely range 40 to 59. Title chance <1%.
Mainz4939–58Mainz 05: projected 49 points, likely range 39 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Frankfurt4738–56Eintracht Frankfurt: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 56. Title chance 0%.
Augsburg4637–55Augsburg: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Köln4435–541. FC Köln: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 54. Title chance 0%.
Elversberg4032–49Elversberg: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance <1%.
Werder Bremen3930–48Werder Bremen: projected 39 points, likely range 30 to 48. Title chance 0%.
Schalke 043829–47Schalke 04: projected 38 points, likely range 29 to 47. Title chance 0%.
Union Berlin3627–45Union Berlin: projected 36 points, likely range 27 to 45. Title chance 0%.
Paderborn3324–42Paderborn: projected 33 points, likely range 24 to 42. Title chance 0%.
M'gladbach3224–42Borussia Mönchengladbach: projected 32 points, likely range 24 to 42. Title chance 0%.
Hamburger SV2921–38Hamburger SV: projected 29 points, likely range 21 to 38. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Bayern München	70	75	79	83	86	84%
Borussia Dortmund	58	63	68	73	76	11%
RB Leipzig	52	56	61	66	70	2%
Bayer Leverkusen	51	56	61	66	70	2%
Freiburg	49	53	58	63	67	<1%
VfB Stuttgart	41	46	51	56	60	<1%
Hoffenheim	40	45	50	55	59	<1%
Mainz 05	39	44	49	53	58	<1%
Eintracht Frankfurt	38	42	47	52	56	0%
Augsburg	37	41	46	50	55	<1%
1. FC Köln	35	39	44	49	54	0%
Elversberg	32	36	40	45	49	<1%
Werder Bremen	30	34	39	44	48	0%
Schalke 04	29	33	38	42	47	0%
Union Berlin	27	31	36	41	45	0%
Paderborn	24	28	33	37	42	0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach	24	28	32	37	42	0%
Hamburger SV	21	25	29	34	38	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Bayern München
Dortmund
RB Leipzig
Leverkusen
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim
Mainz
Frankfurt
Augsburg
Köln
Elversberg
Werder Bremen
Schalke 04
Union Berlin
Paderborn
M'gladbach
Hamburger SV

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Bayern München	84%	16%	0%	0%	0%
Borussia Dortmund	11%	78%	8%	2%	0%
RB Leipzig	2%	61%	24%	13%	0%
Bayer Leverkusen	2%	59%	25%	13%	0%
Freiburg	1%	44%	33%	22%	0%
VfB Stuttgart	0%	13%	25%	61%	1%
Hoffenheim	0%	10%	22%	67%	1%
Mainz 05	0%	8%	20%	71%	2%
Eintracht Frankfurt	0%	5%	14%	78%	3%
Augsburg	0%	3%	12%	81%	4%
1. FC Köln	0%	2%	8%	83%	7%
Elversberg	0%	1%	3%	80%	16%
Werder Bremen	0%	0%	2%	77%	20%
Schalke 04	0%	0%	2%	72%	27%
Union Berlin	0%	0%	1%	64%	35%
Paderborn	0%	0%	0%	46%	54%
Borussia Mönchengladbach	0%	0%	0%	44%	56%
Hamburger SV	0%	0%	0%	26%	74%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Bayern München+78
Frankfurt-6
Werder Bremen-6
Schalke 04-6
Köln-6
Paderborn-6

How they got here3 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Freiburg	1	1	2	+1
Borussia Dortmund	2	2	5	+3
Augsburg	3	1	4	+1
Bayern München	4	1	6	-3
RB Leipzig	5	3	8	-2
Elversberg	6	4	6	0
Bayer Leverkusen	7	7	12	+5
Mainz 05	8	5	11	+3
Eintracht Frankfurt	9	8	13	-1
Werder Bremen	10	10	15	+5
Schalke 04	11	11	16	+5
1. FC Köln	12	7	12	-5
Hoffenheim	13	13	16	0
VfB Stuttgart	14	9	18	+4
Paderborn	15	10	15	-5
Union Berlin	16	9	16	-7
Borussia Mönchengladbach	17	17	17	0
Hamburger SV	18	14	18	-4

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.