Scottish Premiership · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Celtic are favourites

Ahead of Rangers on 36%. The model projects them to finish on 65 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 58.

Title chance

63%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Celtic6558–73Celtic: projected 65 points, likely range 58 to 73. Title chance 63%.
Rangers6355–70Rangers: projected 63 points, likely range 55 to 70. Title chance 36%.
Dundee FC4739–55Dundee FC: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Hearts4639–54Heart of Midlothian: projected 46 points, likely range 39 to 54. Title chance <1%.
Falkirk4537–52Falkirk: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 52. Title chance <1%.
Motherwell4437–52Motherwell: projected 44 points, likely range 37 to 52. Title chance <1%.
Dundee United4336–51Dundee United: projected 43 points, likely range 36 to 51. Title chance <1%.
Aberdeen4335–51Aberdeen: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 51. Title chance <1%.
St. Mirren3830–45St. Mirren: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 45. Title chance 0%.
Hibernian3628–44Hibernian: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance <1%.
Kilmarnock3528–43Kilmarnock: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
St. Johnstone3428–42St. Johnstone: projected 34 points, likely range 28 to 42. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Celtic	58	61	65	69	73	63%
Rangers	55	59	63	67	70	36%
Dundee FC	39	43	47	51	55	<1%
Heart of Midlothian	39	42	46	50	54	<1%
Falkirk	37	41	45	48	52	<1%
Motherwell	37	40	44	48	52	<1%
Dundee United	36	39	43	48	51	<1%
Aberdeen	35	39	43	47	51	<1%
St. Mirren	30	34	38	42	45	0%
Hibernian	28	32	36	40	44	<1%
Kilmarnock	28	31	35	39	43	0%
St. Johnstone	28	31	34	38	42	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Celtic
Rangers
Dundee FC
Hearts
Falkirk
Motherwell
Dundee United
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
St. Johnstone

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Celtic	63%	37%	0%	100%	0%
Rangers	36%	63%	0%	100%	0%
Dundee FC	1%	46%	0%	73%	27%
Heart of Midlothian	0%	41%	0%	70%	30%
Falkirk	0%	28%	0%	58%	42%
Motherwell	0%	27%	0%	56%	44%
Dundee United	0%	23%	0%	50%	50%
Aberdeen	0%	23%	0%	50%	50%
St. Mirren	0%	5%	0%	16%	84%
Hibernian	0%	3%	0%	12%	88%
Kilmarnock	0%	2%	0%	8%	92%
St. Johnstone	0%	1%	0%	7%	93%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Celtic+54
Rangers+28
St. Johnstone-8
St. Mirren-8
Kilmarnock-8
Hibernian-8

How they got here11 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Celtic	1	1	5	+4
Rangers	2	2	9	+4
Heart of Midlothian	3	3	10	+7
Dundee FC	4	3	11	+7
Dundee United	5	4	12	+2
Falkirk	6	6	12	+6
St. Mirren	7	1	8	-6
St. Johnstone	8	2	11	-6
Aberdeen	9	2	9	-6
Motherwell	10	3	10	-6
Hibernian	11	7	12	-2
Kilmarnock	12	8	12	-4

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.