Scottish Premiership · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Celtic are favourites

Ahead of Rangers on 12%. The model projects them to finish on 67 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 59.

Title chance

82%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Celtic6759–76Celtic: projected 67 points, likely range 59 to 76. Title chance 82%.
Rangers5748–65Rangers: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 65. Title chance 12%.
Hearts5143–60Heart of Midlothian: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 60. Title chance 4%.
St. Mirren4637–55St. Mirren: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Motherwell4335–52Motherwell: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance <1%.
St. Johnstone4133–50St. Johnstone: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance <1%.
Hibernian4133–50Hibernian: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance <1%.
Dundee United4133–50Dundee United: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance <1%.
Dundee FC4032–49Dundee FC: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance <1%.
Aberdeen3931–48Aberdeen: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 48. Title chance <1%.
Falkirk3728–45Falkirk: projected 37 points, likely range 28 to 45. Title chance <1%.
Kilmarnock3527–44Kilmarnock: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 44. Title chance <1%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Celtic	59	63	67	72	76	82%
Rangers	48	52	57	61	65	12%
Heart of Midlothian	43	47	51	56	60	4%
St. Mirren	37	42	46	51	55	<1%
Motherwell	35	39	43	48	52	<1%
St. Johnstone	33	37	41	46	50	<1%
Hibernian	33	37	41	46	50	<1%
Dundee United	33	37	41	46	50	<1%
Dundee FC	32	36	40	45	49	<1%
Aberdeen	31	35	39	44	48	<1%
Falkirk	28	32	37	41	45	<1%
Kilmarnock	27	31	35	40	44	<1%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Celtic
Rangers
Hearts
St. Mirren
Motherwell
St. Johnstone
Hibernian
Dundee United
Dundee FC
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Celtic	82%	18%	0%	100%	0%
Rangers	12%	77%	0%	97%	3%
Heart of Midlothian	4%	67%	0%	88%	12%
St. Mirren	1%	37%	0%	65%	35%
Motherwell	0%	22%	0%	48%	52%
St. Johnstone	0%	16%	0%	39%	61%
Hibernian	0%	17%	0%	38%	62%
Dundee United	0%	16%	0%	38%	62%
Dundee FC	0%	13%	0%	33%	67%
Aberdeen	0%	10%	0%	27%	73%
Falkirk	0%	5%	0%	15%	85%
Kilmarnock	0%	3%	0%	11%	89%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Celtic+74
Kilmarnock-8
Falkirk-8
Aberdeen-8
Dundee FC-8
Hibernian-8

How they got here6 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Celtic	1	1	5	+4
Rangers	2	2	9	+4
Heart of Midlothian	3	3	10	+7
St. Mirren	4	1	4	-3
Motherwell	5	3	8	-1
Dundee FC	6	3	11	+5
St. Johnstone	7	2	11	-5
Aberdeen	8	2	8	-5
Hibernian	9	7	10	0
Falkirk	10	6	12	+2
Dundee United	11	7	12	-4
Kilmarnock	12	8	12	-4

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.