League One · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Huddersfield Town are favourites
Ahead of Stockport County on 21%. The model projects them to finish on 81 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 70.
Title chance
28%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Huddersfield8170–91Huddersfield Town: projected 81 points, likely range 70 to 91. Title chance 28%.
- Stockport County7968–89Stockport County: projected 79 points, likely range 68 to 89. Title chance 21%.
- Bradford7867–88Bradford City: projected 78 points, likely range 67 to 88. Title chance 17%.
- Reading7766–87Reading: projected 77 points, likely range 66 to 87. Title chance 14%.
- Plymouth7463–85Plymouth Argyle: projected 74 points, likely range 63 to 85. Title chance 8%.
- Luton7363–84Luton Town: projected 73 points, likely range 63 to 84. Title chance 7%.
- Stevenage7059–80Stevenage: projected 70 points, likely range 59 to 80. Title chance 3%.
- Sheff Wed6655–76Sheffield Wednesday: projected 66 points, likely range 55 to 76. Title chance 1%.
- Oxford Utd6453–74Oxford United: projected 64 points, likely range 53 to 74. Title chance <1%.
- Mansfield6352–73Mansfield Town: projected 63 points, likely range 52 to 73. Title chance <1%.
- Wycombe6352–73Wycombe Wanderers: projected 63 points, likely range 52 to 73. Title chance <1%.
- Doncaster6353–74Doncaster Rovers: projected 63 points, likely range 53 to 74. Title chance <1%.
- Burton6050–71Burton Albion: projected 60 points, likely range 50 to 71. Title chance <1%.
- Leyton Orient6050–71Leyton Orient: projected 60 points, likely range 50 to 71. Title chance <1%.
- Peterborough5848–69Peterborough United: projected 58 points, likely range 48 to 69. Title chance <1%.
- Cambridge5747–68Cambridge United: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Wimbledon5747–68AFC Wimbledon: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Barnsley5747–68Barnsley: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- MK Dons5746–68Milton Keynes Dons: projected 57 points, likely range 46 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Wigan5747–68Wigan Athletic: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Notts County5645–66Notts County: projected 56 points, likely range 45 to 66. Title chance <1%.
- Blackpool5545–66Blackpool: projected 55 points, likely range 45 to 66. Title chance 0%.
- Leicester5242–62Leicester City: projected 52 points, likely range 42 to 62. Title chance <1%.
- Bromley4535–54Bromley: projected 45 points, likely range 35 to 54. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 70 | 75 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 28% |
| Stockport County | 68 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 89 | 21% |
| Bradford City | 67 | 72 | 78 | 84 | 88 | 17% |
| Reading | 66 | 71 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 14% |
| Plymouth Argyle | 63 | 68 | 74 | 80 | 85 | 8% |
| Luton Town | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 84 | 7% |
| Stevenage | 59 | 64 | 70 | 75 | 80 | 3% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 55 | 60 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 1% |
| Oxford United | 53 | 58 | 64 | 69 | 74 | <1% |
| Mansfield Town | 52 | 57 | 63 | 68 | 73 | <1% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 52 | 57 | 63 | 68 | 73 | <1% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 53 | 58 | 63 | 69 | 74 | <1% |
| Burton Albion | 50 | 55 | 60 | 66 | 71 | <1% |
| Leyton Orient | 50 | 55 | 60 | 66 | 71 | <1% |
| Peterborough United | 48 | 53 | 58 | 64 | 69 | <1% |
| Cambridge United | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 47 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 68 | <1% |
| Barnsley | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 51 | 57 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| Wigan Athletic | 47 | 51 | 57 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| Notts County | 45 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 66 | <1% |
| Blackpool | 45 | 50 | 55 | 61 | 66 | 0% |
| Leicester City | 42 | 46 | 52 | 57 | 62 | <1% |
| Bromley | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 54 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Huddersfield
- Stockport County
- Bradford
- Reading
- Plymouth
- Luton
- Stevenage
- Sheff Wed
- Oxford Utd
- Doncaster
- Wycombe
- Mansfield
- Leyton Orient
- Burton
- Peterborough
- Cambridge
- Barnsley
- MK Dons
- Wigan
- Wimbledon
- Notts County
- Blackpool
- Leicester
- Bromley
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 28% | 44% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Stockport County | 21% | 44% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Bradford City | 17% | 42% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Reading | 14% | 40% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Plymouth Argyle | 8% | 32% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Luton Town | 7% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Stevenage | 3% | 20% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 1% | 9% | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Oxford United | 1% | 7% | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 1% | 6% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 0% | 5% | 0% | 92% | 8% |
| Mansfield Town | 0% | 5% | 0% | 91% | 9% |
| Leyton Orient | 0% | 3% | 0% | 87% | 13% |
| Burton Albion | 0% | 3% | 0% | 87% | 13% |
| Peterborough United | 0% | 2% | 0% | 80% | 20% |
| Cambridge United | 0% | 1% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Barnsley | 0% | 1% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 0% | 1% | 0% | 75% | 25% |
| Wigan Athletic | 0% | 1% | 0% | 75% | 25% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0% | 1% | 0% | 74% | 26% |
| Notts County | 0% | 1% | 0% | 71% | 29% |
| Blackpool | 0% | 1% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Leicester City | 0% | 0% | 0% | 51% | 49% |
| Bromley | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 83% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Huddersfield+24
- Stockport County+17
- Bradford+12
- Reading+10
- Blackpool-4
- Bromley-4
How they got here5 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday | 1 | 1 | 12 | +5 |
| Huddersfield Town | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Bradford City | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cambridge United | 4 | 4 | 6 | +1 |
| Oxford United | 5 | 4 | 15 | +5 |
| Plymouth Argyle | 6 | 6 | 22 | +16 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 7 | 24 | +17 |
| Stockport County | 8 | 2 | 9 | -6 |
| Stevenage | 9 | 9 | 20 | +2 |
| Blackpool | 10 | 3 | 13 | +3 |
| Burton Albion | 11 | 4 | 15 | +4 |
| Luton Town | 12 | 3 | 12 | -8 |
| Leicester City | 13 | 12 | 19 | -1 |
| Reading | 14 | 8 | 17 | +3 |
| Leyton Orient | 15 | 8 | 19 | +4 |
| Notts County | 16 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| Mansfield Town | 17 | 7 | 17 | -10 |
| Barnsley | 18 | 5 | 21 | +3 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 19 | 14 | 24 | -5 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 20 | 9 | 23 | -11 |
| Peterborough United | 21 | 13 | 23 | +2 |
| Bromley | 22 | 8 | 22 | -14 |
| Wigan Athletic | 23 | 18 | 24 | -5 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 24 | 20 | 24 | -4 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.