League One · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Huddersfield Town are favourites
Ahead of Stockport County on 42%. The model projects them to finish on 93 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 84.
Title chance
52%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Huddersfield9384–102Huddersfield Town: projected 93 points, likely range 84 to 102. Title chance 52%.
- Stockport County9283–101Stockport County: projected 92 points, likely range 83 to 101. Title chance 42%.
- Luton8070–89Luton Town: projected 80 points, likely range 70 to 89. Title chance 3%.
- Oxford Utd7565–84Oxford United: projected 75 points, likely range 65 to 84. Title chance <1%.
- MK Dons7465–83Milton Keynes Dons: projected 74 points, likely range 65 to 83. Title chance <1%.
- Mansfield7363–82Mansfield Town: projected 73 points, likely range 63 to 82. Title chance <1%.
- Plymouth7263–81Plymouth Argyle: projected 72 points, likely range 63 to 81. Title chance <1%.
- Leicester7161–81Leicester City: projected 71 points, likely range 61 to 81. Title chance <1%.
- Reading7060–79Reading: projected 70 points, likely range 60 to 79. Title chance <1%.
- Bradford7061–80Bradford City: projected 70 points, likely range 61 to 80. Title chance <1%.
- Wycombe6858–77Wycombe Wanderers: projected 68 points, likely range 58 to 77. Title chance <1%.
- Leyton Orient6354–73Leyton Orient: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 73. Title chance 0%.
- Cambridge6153–71Cambridge United: projected 61 points, likely range 53 to 71. Title chance 0%.
- Burton6152–70Burton Albion: projected 61 points, likely range 52 to 70. Title chance 0%.
- Notts County5848–67Notts County: projected 58 points, likely range 48 to 67. Title chance 0%.
- Sheff Wed5647–66Sheffield Wednesday: projected 56 points, likely range 47 to 66. Title chance 0%.
- Stevenage5445–64Stevenage: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 64. Title chance 0%.
- Blackpool5344–62Blackpool: projected 53 points, likely range 44 to 62. Title chance 0%.
- Peterborough4940–59Peterborough United: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 59. Title chance 0%.
- Wimbledon4738–56AFC Wimbledon: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 56. Title chance 0%.
- Wigan4636–55Wigan Athletic: projected 46 points, likely range 36 to 55. Title chance 0%.
- Doncaster4536–54Doncaster Rovers: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 54. Title chance 0%.
- Barnsley4435–54Barnsley: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 54. Title chance 0%.
- Bromley3527–43Bromley: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 84 | 89 | 93 | 98 | 102 | 52% |
| Stockport County | 83 | 87 | 92 | 96 | 101 | 42% |
| Luton Town | 70 | 75 | 80 | 84 | 89 | 3% |
| Oxford United | 65 | 69 | 75 | 79 | 84 | <1% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 65 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 83 | <1% |
| Mansfield Town | 63 | 68 | 73 | 78 | 82 | <1% |
| Plymouth Argyle | 63 | 67 | 72 | 77 | 81 | <1% |
| Leicester City | 61 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 81 | <1% |
| Reading | 60 | 65 | 70 | 75 | 79 | <1% |
| Bradford City | 61 | 65 | 70 | 75 | 80 | <1% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 58 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 77 | <1% |
| Leyton Orient | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 0% |
| Cambridge United | 53 | 57 | 61 | 66 | 71 | 0% |
| Burton Albion | 52 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 70 | 0% |
| Notts County | 48 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 67 | 0% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 47 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 0% |
| Stevenage | 45 | 50 | 54 | 59 | 64 | 0% |
| Blackpool | 44 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 62 | 0% |
| Peterborough United | 40 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 59 | 0% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 38 | 42 | 47 | 51 | 56 | 0% |
| Wigan Athletic | 36 | 41 | 46 | 50 | 55 | 0% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 54 | 0% |
| Barnsley | 35 | 40 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 0% |
| Bromley | 27 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Huddersfield
- Stockport County
- Luton
- Oxford Utd
- MK Dons
- Mansfield
- Plymouth
- Leicester
- Reading
- Bradford
- Wycombe
- Leyton Orient
- Cambridge
- Burton
- Notts County
- Sheff Wed
- Stevenage
- Blackpool
- Peterborough
- Wimbledon
- Wigan
- Doncaster
- Barnsley
- Bromley
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 52% | 46% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Stockport County | 42% | 55% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Luton Town | 3% | 54% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Oxford United | 1% | 28% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 0% | 27% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Mansfield Town | 1% | 21% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Plymouth Argyle | 0% | 17% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Leicester City | 0% | 16% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Reading | 0% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Bradford City | 0% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 0% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Leyton Orient | 0% | 2% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Cambridge United | 0% | 1% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Burton Albion | 0% | 1% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Notts County | 0% | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 0% | 0% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Stevenage | 0% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 12% |
| Blackpool | 0% | 0% | 0% | 83% | 17% |
| Peterborough United | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| Wigan Athletic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 54% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| Barnsley | 0% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 61% |
| Bromley | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Huddersfield+48
- Stockport County+38
- Cambridge-4
- Sheff Wed-4
- Leyton Orient-4
- Burton-4
How they got here11 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stockport County | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Oxford United | 3 | 2 | 15 | +7 |
| Luton Town | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 1 | 22 | +17 |
| Reading | 6 | 6 | 17 | +11 |
| Bradford City | 7 | 1 | 11 | -4 |
| Cambridge United | 8 | 2 | 8 | -3 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 9 | 1 | 12 | -3 |
| Leicester City | 10 | 9 | 19 | +2 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 9 | 23 | -2 |
| Mansfield Town | 12 | 7 | 17 | -5 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 13 | 24 | +1 |
| Leyton Orient | 14 | 8 | 19 | +5 |
| Burton Albion | 15 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Stevenage | 16 | 9 | 20 | -5 |
| Notts County | 17 | 10 | 23 | -1 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 18 | 7 | 24 | +6 |
| Blackpool | 19 | 3 | 20 | -6 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 20 | 17 | 24 | 0 |
| Wigan Athletic | 21 | 18 | 24 | -3 |
| Peterborough United | 22 | 13 | 23 | +1 |
| Barnsley | 23 | 5 | 23 | -2 |
| Bromley | 24 | 8 | 24 | -16 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.