AFC Champions League Elite · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Kashima Antlers are favourites
Ahead of Vissel Kobe on 21%. The model projects them to finish on 18 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 14.
Title chance
29%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Kashima Antlers1814–22Kashima Antlers: projected 18 points, likely range 14 to 22. Title chance 29%.
- Vissel Kobe1814–22Vissel Kobe: projected 18 points, likely range 14 to 22. Title chance 21%.
- Al-Ain1713–21Al-Ain: projected 17 points, likely range 13 to 21. Title chance 16%.
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC1713–21Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC: projected 17 points, likely range 13 to 21. Title chance 10%.
- Gamba Osaka1612–19Gamba Osaka: projected 16 points, likely range 12 to 19. Title chance 6%.
- Johor Darul Ta'zim1612–19Johor Darul Ta'zim: projected 16 points, likely range 12 to 19. Title chance 5%.
- Beijing Guoan1511–19Beijing Guoan: projected 15 points, likely range 11 to 19. Title chance 4%.
- Al Ahli1410–18Al Ahli: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance 3%.
- Kyoto Sanga FC1410–18Kyoto Sanga FC: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance 2%.
- Esteghlal1310–17Esteghlal: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 17. Title chance 1%.
- Al Hilal139–17Al Hilal: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 17. Title chance 1%.
- Kashiwa Reysol139–16Kashiwa Reysol: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance <1%.
- Al-Shamal128–16Al-Shamal: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance <1%.
- Shanghai Port128–16Shanghai Port: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance <1%.
- Al Qadsiah118–15Al Qadsiah: projected 11 points, likely range 8 to 15. Title chance <1%.
- Al Ittihad117–15Al Ittihad: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance <1%.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen106–14Daejeon Hana Citizen: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 14. Title chance <1%.
- Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC106–14Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 14. Title chance <1%.
- Al Nassr FC96–13Al Nassr FC: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
- Neftchi Fargona95–13Neftchi Fargona: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya96–13Al Quwa Al Jawiya: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance <1%.
- Pakhtakor Tashkent95–12Pakhtakor Tashkent: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Công An Hà Nội95–13Công An Hà Nội: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance 0%.
- Tractor85–12Tractor: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance 0%.
- Buriram United84–12Buriram United: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
- Al-Sadd74–11Al-Sadd: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 11. Title chance 0%.
- Al-Gharafa73–10Al-Gharafa: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance 0%.
- Al-Wasl63–10Al-Wasl: projected 6 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance 0%.
- Ratchaburi FC62–10Ratchaburi FC: projected 6 points, likely range 2 to 10. Title chance 0%.
- Pohang Steelers51–9Pohang Steelers: projected 5 points, likely range 1 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- Port FC41–9Port FC: projected 4 points, likely range 1 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- Newcastle Jets41–8Newcastle Jets: projected 4 points, likely range 1 to 8. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 29% |
| Vissel Kobe | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 21% |
| Al-Ain | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 16% |
| Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 10% |
| Gamba Osaka | 12 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 6% |
| Johor Darul Ta'zim | 12 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 5% |
| Beijing Guoan | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 4% |
| Al Ahli | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 3% |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 2% |
| Esteghlal | 10 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 1% |
| Al Hilal | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 1% |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 16 | <1% |
| Al-Shamal | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | <1% |
| Shanghai Port | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | <1% |
| Al Qadsiah | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | <1% |
| Al Ittihad | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | <1% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | <1% |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | <1% |
| Al Nassr FC | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 0% |
| Neftchi Fargona | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | <1% |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | <1% |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | <1% |
| Công An Hà Nội | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 0% |
| Tractor | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 0% |
| Buriram United | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 0% |
| Al-Sadd | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 0% |
| Al-Gharafa | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 0% |
| Al-Wasl | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 0% |
| Ratchaburi FC | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 0% |
| Pohang Steelers | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0% |
| Port FC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 0% |
| Newcastle Jets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
- Kashima Antlers
- Vissel Kobe
- Al-Ain
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC
- Gamba Osaka
- Johor Darul Ta'zim
- Beijing Guoan
- Kyoto Sanga FC
- Al Ahli
- Esteghlal
- Al Hilal
- Kashiwa Reysol
- Shanghai Port
- Al-Shamal
- Al Qadsiah
- Al Ittihad
- Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC
- Daejeon Hana Citizen
- Al Nassr FC
- Neftchi Fargona
- Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- Công An Hà Nội
- Tractor
- Buriram United
- Al-Sadd
- Al-Gharafa
- Al-Wasl
- Ratchaburi FC
- Pohang Steelers
- Port FC
- Newcastle Jets
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 29% | 43% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Vissel Kobe | 21% | 41% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al-Ain | 16% | 38% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC | 10% | 32% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Gamba Osaka | 6% | 28% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Johor Darul Ta'zim | 5% | 25% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Beijing Guoan | 4% | 23% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 2% | 14% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Ahli | 3% | 13% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Esteghlal | 1% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Hilal | 1% | 8% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 0% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Shanghai Port | 0% | 6% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al-Shamal | 0% | 5% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Qadsiah | 0% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Ittihad | 0% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Nassr FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Neftchi Fargona | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Công An Hà Nội | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Tractor | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Buriram United | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al-Sadd | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al-Gharafa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Al-Wasl | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Ratchaburi FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Pohang Steelers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Port FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Newcastle Jets | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Kashima Antlers+26
- Vissel Kobe+18
- Al-Ain+13
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC+7
- Al Nassr FC-3
- Tractor-3
How they got here2 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ain | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| Kashima Antlers | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Gamba Osaka | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Esteghlal | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Vissel Kobe | 5 | 5 | 7 | +2 |
| Al Hilal | 6 | 6 | 9 | +3 |
| Beijing Guoan | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC | 8 | 8 | 11 | +3 |
| Shanghai Port | 9 | 5 | 9 | -4 |
| Al Ahli | 10 | 10 | 19 | +9 |
| Johor Darul Ta'zim | 11 | 11 | 18 | +7 |
| Al Qadsiah | 12 | 8 | 12 | -4 |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 13 | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 14 | 22 | +8 |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 15 | 15 | 26 | +11 |
| Neftchi Fargona | 16 | 12 | 16 | -4 |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 17 | 10 | 17 | -7 |
| Al Nassr FC | 18 | 18 | 31 | +13 |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 19 | 14 | 19 | -5 |
| Al-Shamal | 20 | 17 | 20 | -3 |
| Al Ittihad | 21 | 16 | 21 | -5 |
| Buriram United | 22 | 15 | 22 | -7 |
| Tractor | 23 | 23 | 25 | +2 |
| Al-Gharafa | 24 | 20 | 24 | -4 |
| Ratchaburi FC | 25 | 25 | 27 | +2 |
| Al-Wasl | 26 | 21 | 26 | -5 |
| Công An Hà Nội | 27 | 27 | 29 | +2 |
| Pohang Steelers | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 29 | 24 | 29 | -5 |
| Port FC | 30 | 23 | 30 | -7 |
| Al-Sadd | 31 | 30 | 31 | -1 |
| Newcastle Jets | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.