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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Kashima Antlers are favourites

Ahead of Shanghai Port on 10%. The model projects them to finish on 15 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 10.

Title chance

14%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Kashima Antlers1510–19Kashima Antlers: projected 15 points, likely range 10 to 19. Title chance 14%.
  • Gamba Osaka149–18Gamba Osaka: projected 14 points, likely range 9 to 18. Title chance 9%.
  • Shanghai Port1410–19Shanghai Port: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 19. Title chance 10%.
  • Vissel Kobe149–19Vissel Kobe: projected 14 points, likely range 9 to 19. Title chance 8%.
  • Al-Ain139–18Al-Ain: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 18. Title chance 8%.
  • Esteghlal139–18Esteghlal: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 18. Title chance 6%.
  • Al Hilal138–17Al Hilal: projected 13 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
  • Al Qadsiah138–17Al Qadsiah: projected 13 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
  • Neftchi Fargona138–17Neftchi Fargona: projected 13 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
  • Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC138–17Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC: projected 13 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
  • Beijing Guoan139–18Beijing Guoan: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 18. Title chance 7%.
  • Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC128–17Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 3%.
  • Daejeon Hana Citizen128–17Daejeon Hana Citizen: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 17. Title chance 4%.
  • Al Ittihad116–15Al Ittihad: projected 11 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance 1%.
  • Al-Shamal116–15Al-Shamal: projected 11 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance 1%.
  • Pakhtakor Tashkent116–16Pakhtakor Tashkent: projected 11 points, likely range 6 to 16. Title chance 2%.
  • Johor Darul Ta'zim116–16Johor Darul Ta'zim: projected 11 points, likely range 6 to 16. Title chance 1%.
  • Al Ahli106–15Al Ahli: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Al-Gharafa105–14Al-Gharafa: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Al-Wasl105–14Al-Wasl: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya105–14Al Quwa Al Jawiya: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Tractor105–14Tractor: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Buriram United106–15Buriram United: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance 1%.
  • Kashiwa Reysol106–15Kashiwa Reysol: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Kyoto Sanga FC106–15Kyoto Sanga FC: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Al-Sadd95–14Al-Sadd: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Al Nassr FC94–13Al Nassr FC: projected 9 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Port FC94–13Port FC: projected 9 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Pohang Steelers95–13Pohang Steelers: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Công An Hà Nội94–13Công An Hà Nội: projected 9 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Ratchaburi FC84–13Ratchaburi FC: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Newcastle Jets84–13Newcastle Jets: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Kashima Antlers101215171914%
Gamba Osaka9111416189%
Shanghai Port101214171910%
Vissel Kobe9111416198%
Al-Ain9111316188%
Esteghlal9111316186%
Al Hilal8101315174%
Al Qadsiah8101315174%
Neftchi Fargona8101315174%
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC8101315174%
Beijing Guoan9111316187%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC8101215173%
Daejeon Hana Citizen8101215174%
Al Ittihad681113151%
Al-Shamal681113151%
Pakhtakor Tashkent691114162%
Johor Darul Ta'zim681113161%
Al Ahli68101315<1%
Al-Gharafa57101214<1%
Al-Wasl57101214<1%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya57101214<1%
Tractor57101214<1%
Buriram United681013151%
Kashiwa Reysol68101315<1%
Kyoto Sanga FC68101315<1%
Al-Sadd5791214<1%
Al Nassr FC4691113<1%
Port FC4691113<1%
Pohang Steelers5791113<1%
Công An Hà Nội4691113<1%
Ratchaburi FC4681113<1%
Newcastle Jets4681013<1%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Kashima Antlers
  • Shanghai Port
  • Gamba Osaka
  • Vissel Kobe
  • Al-Ain
  • Beijing Guoan
  • Esteghlal
  • Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC
  • Neftchi Fargona
  • Al Hilal
  • Al Qadsiah
  • Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC
  • Daejeon Hana Citizen
  • Pakhtakor Tashkent
  • Johor Darul Ta'zim
  • Al Ittihad
  • Al-Shamal
  • Buriram United
  • Al Ahli
  • Kashiwa Reysol
  • Kyoto Sanga FC
  • Al-Gharafa
  • Al-Wasl
  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya
  • Tractor
  • Al-Sadd
  • Pohang Steelers
  • Port FC
  • Al Nassr FC
  • Công An Hà Nội
  • Ratchaburi FC
  • Newcastle Jets
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Kashima Antlers14%26%0%100%0%
Shanghai Port10%23%0%100%0%
Gamba Osaka9%20%0%100%0%
Vissel Kobe8%20%0%100%0%
Al-Ain8%19%0%100%0%
Beijing Guoan7%19%0%100%0%
Esteghlal6%18%0%100%0%
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC4%14%0%100%0%
Neftchi Fargona4%14%0%100%0%
Al Hilal4%14%0%100%0%
Al Qadsiah4%13%0%100%0%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC3%12%0%100%0%
Daejeon Hana Citizen4%12%0%100%0%
Pakhtakor Tashkent2%8%0%100%0%
Johor Darul Ta'zim1%7%0%100%0%
Al Ittihad1%7%0%100%0%
Al-Shamal1%6%0%100%0%
Buriram United1%6%0%100%0%
Al Ahli1%5%0%100%0%
Kashiwa Reysol1%5%0%100%0%
Kyoto Sanga FC1%5%0%100%0%
Al-Gharafa1%4%0%100%0%
Al-Wasl1%4%0%100%0%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1%4%0%100%0%
Tractor0%3%0%100%0%
Al-Sadd0%3%0%100%0%
Pohang Steelers0%2%0%100%0%
Port FC0%2%0%100%0%
Al Nassr FC0%2%0%100%0%
Công An Hà Nội0%2%0%100%0%
Ratchaburi FC0%2%0%100%0%
Newcastle Jets0%1%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Kashima Antlers+11
  • Shanghai Port+7
  • Gamba Osaka+5
  • Al-Ain+5
  • Vissel Kobe+5
  • Beijing Guoan+4
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.