Eredivisie · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

PSV Eindhoven are favourites

Ahead of Feyenoord on 24%. The model projects them to finish on 76 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 68.

Title chance

61%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

PSV Eindhoven7668–84PSV Eindhoven: projected 76 points, likely range 68 to 84. Title chance 61%.
Feyenoord7263–80Feyenoord: projected 72 points, likely range 63 to 80. Title chance 24%.
FC Twente6758–75FC Twente: projected 67 points, likely range 58 to 75. Title chance 8%.
AZ Alkmaar6455–73AZ Alkmaar: projected 64 points, likely range 55 to 73. Title chance 4%.
Ajax6455–72Ajax: projected 64 points, likely range 55 to 72. Title chance 4%.
Go Ahead Eagles4839–57Go Ahead Eagles: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 57. Title chance <1%.
SC Heerenveen4839–57SC Heerenveen: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 57. Title chance 0%.
Excelsior4739–56Excelsior: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance <1%.
FC Groningen4738–55FC Groningen: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 55. Title chance 0%.
NEC Nijmegen4739–56NEC Nijmegen: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance <1%.
FC Utrecht4234–51FC Utrecht: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Sparta Rotterdam4032–49Sparta Rotterdam: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance 0%.
Fortuna Sittard3931–47Fortuna Sittard: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 47. Title chance 0%.
Telstar3729–46Telstar: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 46. Title chance 0%.
Cambuur3425–42Cambuur: projected 34 points, likely range 25 to 42. Title chance 0%.
PEC Zwolle2921–38PEC Zwolle: projected 29 points, likely range 21 to 38. Title chance 0%.
Willem II2821–37Willem II: projected 28 points, likely range 21 to 37. Title chance 0%.
ADO Den Haag2619–35ADO Den Haag: projected 26 points, likely range 19 to 35. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
PSV Eindhoven	68	72	76	81	84	61%
Feyenoord	63	67	72	76	80	24%
FC Twente	58	62	67	71	75	8%
AZ Alkmaar	55	59	64	69	73	4%
Ajax	55	59	64	68	72	4%
Go Ahead Eagles	39	43	48	52	57	<1%
SC Heerenveen	39	43	48	52	57	0%
Excelsior	39	43	47	52	56	<1%
FC Groningen	38	42	47	51	55	0%
NEC Nijmegen	39	43	47	52	56	<1%
FC Utrecht	34	38	42	47	51	0%
Sparta Rotterdam	32	36	40	45	49	0%
Fortuna Sittard	31	35	39	43	47	0%
Telstar	29	33	37	42	46	0%
Cambuur	25	29	34	38	42	0%
PEC Zwolle	21	25	29	33	38	0%
Willem II	21	24	28	33	37	0%
ADO Den Haag	19	22	26	31	35	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
FC Twente
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
Go Ahead Eagles
SC Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
FC Groningen
FC Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
Telstar
Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
Willem II
ADO Den Haag

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
PSV Eindhoven	61%	38%	1%	0%	0%
Feyenoord	24%	69%	7%	0%	0%
FC Twente	8%	69%	22%	1%	0%
AZ Alkmaar	4%	56%	37%	2%	0%
Ajax	4%	59%	35%	3%	0%
Go Ahead Eagles	0%	2%	35%	62%	1%
SC Heerenveen	0%	2%	36%	61%	1%
NEC Nijmegen	0%	2%	34%	64%	1%
Excelsior	0%	2%	33%	65%	1%
FC Groningen	0%	1%	29%	68%	1%
FC Utrecht	0%	0%	12%	83%	5%
Sparta Rotterdam	0%	0%	8%	83%	9%
Fortuna Sittard	0%	0%	5%	83%	12%
Telstar	0%	0%	4%	79%	18%
Cambuur	0%	0%	1%	63%	37%
PEC Zwolle	0%	0%	0%	34%	66%
Willem II	0%	0%	0%	30%	70%
ADO Den Haag	0%	0%	0%	21%	79%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

PSV Eindhoven+55
Feyenoord+18
Fortuna Sittard-6
FC Groningen-6
SC Heerenveen-6
Sparta Rotterdam-6

How they got here6 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
PSV Eindhoven	1	1	10	+9
AZ Alkmaar	2	1	3	+1
Feyenoord	3	3	8	+5
Ajax	4	2	5	0
FC Twente	5	4	13	+8
Excelsior	6	1	9	-5
Fortuna Sittard	7	4	11	+2
Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	8	-6
FC Groningen	9	2	10	-3
NEC Nijmegen	10	6	11	+1
SC Heerenveen	11	7	12	-4
Sparta Rotterdam	12	10	14	+2
Telstar	13	5	14	-8
FC Utrecht	14	12	16	-2
Cambuur	15	15	18	+3
PEC Zwolle	16	13	16	0
Willem II	17	17	18	0
ADO Den Haag	18	15	18	-3

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.