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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

FC Twente are favourites

Ahead of Feyenoord on 33%. The model projects them to finish on 73 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 66.

Title chance

45%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • FC Twente7366–80FC Twente: projected 73 points, likely range 66 to 80. Title chance 45%.
  • Feyenoord7264–79Feyenoord: projected 72 points, likely range 64 to 79. Title chance 33%.
  • PSV Eindhoven7062–77PSV Eindhoven: projected 70 points, likely range 62 to 77. Title chance 21%.
  • Ajax6153–69Ajax: projected 61 points, likely range 53 to 69. Title chance 1%.
  • AZ Alkmaar5951–66AZ Alkmaar: projected 59 points, likely range 51 to 66. Title chance <1%.
  • SC Heerenveen5547–63SC Heerenveen: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 63. Title chance <1%.
  • NEC Nijmegen4840–56NEC Nijmegen: projected 48 points, likely range 40 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • FC Groningen4740–55FC Groningen: projected 47 points, likely range 40 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Cambuur4437–52Cambuur: projected 44 points, likely range 37 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Fortuna Sittard4335–50Fortuna Sittard: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Go Ahead Eagles4335–50Go Ahead Eagles: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • FC Utrecht4335–51FC Utrecht: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Sparta Rotterdam4234–50Sparta Rotterdam: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Telstar3729–44Telstar: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • PEC Zwolle3629–44PEC Zwolle: projected 36 points, likely range 29 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • ADO Den Haag3023–38ADO Den Haag: projected 30 points, likely range 23 to 38. Title chance 0%.
  • Excelsior2822–36Excelsior: projected 28 points, likely range 22 to 36. Title chance 0%.
  • Willem II2014–27Willem II: projected 20 points, likely range 14 to 27. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
FC Twente666973778045%
Feyenoord646872767933%
PSV Eindhoven626670747721%
Ajax53576165691%
AZ Alkmaar5154596366<1%
SC Heerenveen4751555963<1%
NEC Nijmegen40444852560%
FC Groningen40434752550%
Cambuur37404449520%
Fortuna Sittard35394347500%
Go Ahead Eagles35394347500%
FC Utrecht35384347510%
Sparta Rotterdam34384246500%
Telstar29323741440%
PEC Zwolle29323640440%
ADO Den Haag23263034380%
Excelsior22252832360%
Willem II14172024270%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • FC Twente
  • Feyenoord
  • PSV Eindhoven
  • Ajax
  • AZ Alkmaar
  • SC Heerenveen
  • NEC Nijmegen
  • FC Groningen
  • Cambuur
  • Go Ahead Eagles
  • Fortuna Sittard
  • FC Utrecht
  • Sparta Rotterdam
  • Telstar
  • PEC Zwolle
  • ADO Den Haag
  • Excelsior
  • Willem II
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
FC Twente45%54%1%0%0%
Feyenoord33%65%3%0%0%
PSV Eindhoven21%74%5%0%0%
Ajax1%51%44%4%0%
AZ Alkmaar1%35%57%8%0%
SC Heerenveen0%16%63%21%0%
NEC Nijmegen0%2%35%62%1%
FC Groningen0%2%32%65%1%
Cambuur0%1%17%81%2%
Go Ahead Eagles0%0%11%85%4%
Fortuna Sittard0%0%10%87%3%
FC Utrecht0%0%11%85%4%
Sparta Rotterdam0%0%9%86%5%
Telstar0%0%2%77%21%
PEC Zwolle0%0%1%77%22%
ADO Den Haag0%0%0%37%63%
Excelsior0%0%0%23%77%
Willem II0%0%0%2%98%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • FC Twente+39
  • Feyenoord+27
  • PSV Eindhoven+15
  • Fortuna Sittard-6
  • FC Groningen-6
  • Cambuur-6
How they got here11 matchweeks
Position by matchweekFEYAJAPSVFCTAZAFORSCHFCGCAMGOASPAFCUNECPECEXCTELADOWIL

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Feyenoord118+7
Ajax225+2
PSV Eindhoven3110+7
FC Twente4413+9
AZ Alkmaar515-2
Fortuna Sittard6411+3
SC Heerenveen77120
FC Groningen8210-2
Cambuur9918+9
Go Ahead Eagles10210-8
Sparta Rotterdam111014+3
FC Utrecht1211160
NEC Nijmegen13613-2
PEC Zwolle141316+2
Excelsior15115-14
Telstar16516-11
ADO Den Haag171518-2
Willem II181718-1
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.