Belgian Pro League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Union St.Gilloise are favourites

Ahead of Club Brugge on 28%. The model projects them to finish on 67 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 59.

Title chance

42%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Union St.Gilloise6759–76Union St.Gilloise: projected 67 points, likely range 59 to 76. Title chance 42%.
Club Brugge6657–74Club Brugge: projected 66 points, likely range 57 to 74. Title chance 28%.
Gent6254–71Gent: projected 62 points, likely range 54 to 71. Title chance 13%.
Sporting Charleroi6254–70Sporting Charleroi: projected 62 points, likely range 54 to 70. Title chance 12%.
Anderlecht5748–65Anderlecht: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 65. Title chance 3%.
Genk5748–65Genk: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 65. Title chance 3%.
Royal Antwerp4537–54Royal Antwerp: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 54. Title chance <1%.
Lommel4436–52Lommel: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 52. Title chance <1%.
Westerlo4335–51Westerlo: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Zulte Waregem4335–52Zulte Waregem: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance 0%.
St.Truiden4334–51St.Truiden: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
SK Beveren4234–50SK Beveren: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 50. Title chance 0%.
OH Leuven4233–50OH Leuven: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance 0%.
Standard Liège4032–48Standard Liège: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 48. Title chance <1%.
RAAL La Louvière3729–45RAAL La Louvière: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 45. Title chance 0%.
Kortrijk3729–45Kortrijk: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 45. Title chance 0%.
KV Mechelen3426–42KV Mechelen: projected 34 points, likely range 26 to 42. Title chance 0%.
Cercle Brugge3224–40Cercle Brugge: projected 32 points, likely range 24 to 40. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Union St.Gilloise	59	63	67	72	76	42%
Club Brugge	57	61	66	70	74	28%
Gent	54	58	62	67	71	13%
Sporting Charleroi	54	58	62	67	70	12%
Anderlecht	48	52	57	61	65	3%
Genk	48	52	57	61	65	3%
Royal Antwerp	37	41	45	50	54	<1%
Lommel	36	39	44	48	52	<1%
Westerlo	35	39	43	47	51	0%
Zulte Waregem	35	39	43	48	52	0%
St.Truiden	34	38	43	47	51	0%
SK Beveren	34	38	42	46	50	0%
OH Leuven	33	37	42	46	50	0%
Standard Liège	32	36	40	44	48	<1%
RAAL La Louvière	29	33	37	41	45	0%
Kortrijk	29	33	37	41	45	0%
KV Mechelen	26	30	34	38	42	0%
Cercle Brugge	24	28	32	36	40	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Union St.Gilloise
Club Brugge
Gent
Sporting Charleroi
Genk
Anderlecht
Royal Antwerp
Lommel
Zulte Waregem
St.Truiden
Westerlo
OH Leuven
SK Beveren
Standard Liège
RAAL La Louvière
Kortrijk
KV Mechelen
Cercle Brugge

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Union St.Gilloise	42%	49%	0%	8%	0%
Club Brugge	28%	58%	0%	13%	0%
Gent	13%	60%	0%	27%	0%
Sporting Charleroi	12%	58%	0%	30%	0%
Genk	3%	35%	0%	62%	0%
Anderlecht	3%	31%	0%	67%	0%
Royal Antwerp	0%	2%	0%	95%	2%
Lommel	0%	1%	0%	94%	4%
Zulte Waregem	0%	1%	0%	94%	5%
St.Truiden	0%	1%	0%	93%	6%
Westerlo	0%	1%	0%	93%	6%
OH Leuven	0%	1%	0%	91%	8%
SK Beveren	0%	1%	0%	91%	8%
Standard Liège	0%	0%	0%	88%	12%
RAAL La Louvière	0%	0%	0%	75%	25%
Kortrijk	0%	0%	0%	74%	26%
KV Mechelen	0%	0%	0%	57%	43%
Cercle Brugge	0%	0%	0%	45%	55%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Union St.Gilloise+37
Club Brugge+23
Gent+7
Sporting Charleroi+6
Westerlo-6
Zulte Waregem-6

How they got here9 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Club Brugge	1	1	4	+1
Union St.Gilloise	2	1	5	-1
Gent	3	1	4	+1
Sporting Charleroi	4	1	4	-1
Anderlecht	5	5	11	+1
Genk	6	6	14	+8
Lommel	7	7	13	+3
Westerlo	8	6	18	+10
Standard Liège	9	6	11	0
Zulte Waregem	10	5	10	-5
Royal Antwerp	11	2	13	-4
SK Beveren	12	8	13	+1
OH Leuven	13	13	17	+2
KV Mechelen	14	14	18	+2
St.Truiden	15	8	15	-4
RAAL La Louvière	16	12	16	-4
Cercle Brugge	17	8	18	-9
Kortrijk	18	16	18	-1

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.