Belgian Pro League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Union St.Gilloise are favourites

Ahead of Gent on 15%. The model projects them to finish on 66 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 57.

Title chance

53%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Union St.Gilloise6657–75Union St.Gilloise: projected 66 points, likely range 57 to 75. Title chance 53%.
Gent6051–69Gent: projected 60 points, likely range 51 to 69. Title chance 15%.
Sporting Charleroi6051–68Sporting Charleroi: projected 60 points, likely range 51 to 68. Title chance 14%.
Club Brugge5748–66Club Brugge: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 66. Title chance 8%.
Standard Liège5344–62Standard Liège: projected 53 points, likely range 44 to 62. Title chance 4%.
Genk5243–61Genk: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance 2%.
Zulte Waregem5142–60Zulte Waregem: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance 1%.
Anderlecht4940–58Anderlecht: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 58. Title chance <1%.
St.Truiden4940–58St.Truiden: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 58. Title chance 1%.
Westerlo4839–57Westerlo: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 57. Title chance <1%.
SK Beveren4637–55SK Beveren: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Lommel4132–50Lommel: projected 41 points, likely range 32 to 50. Title chance <1%.
RAAL La Louvière4031–49RAAL La Louvière: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance <1%.
Cercle Brugge4031–49Cercle Brugge: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance 0%.
Royal Antwerp3829–46Royal Antwerp: projected 38 points, likely range 29 to 46. Title chance 0%.
KV Mechelen3728–45KV Mechelen: projected 37 points, likely range 28 to 45. Title chance 0%.
OH Leuven3526–44OH Leuven: projected 35 points, likely range 26 to 44. Title chance 0%.
Kortrijk2921–37Kortrijk: projected 29 points, likely range 21 to 37. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Union St.Gilloise	57	61	66	71	75	53%
Gent	51	55	60	64	69	15%
Sporting Charleroi	51	55	60	64	68	14%
Club Brugge	48	52	57	61	66	8%
Standard Liège	44	49	53	58	62	4%
Genk	43	47	52	56	61	2%
Zulte Waregem	42	46	51	55	60	1%
Anderlecht	40	44	49	54	58	<1%
St.Truiden	40	45	49	54	58	1%
Westerlo	39	43	48	53	57	<1%
SK Beveren	37	41	46	50	55	<1%
Lommel	32	36	41	46	50	<1%
RAAL La Louvière	31	35	40	44	49	<1%
Cercle Brugge	31	35	40	44	49	0%
Royal Antwerp	29	33	38	42	46	0%
KV Mechelen	28	32	37	41	45	0%
OH Leuven	26	30	35	39	44	0%
Kortrijk	21	25	29	33	37	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Union St.Gilloise
Gent
Sporting Charleroi
Club Brugge
Standard Liège
Genk
Zulte Waregem
St.Truiden
Anderlecht
Westerlo
SK Beveren
Lommel
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
Royal Antwerp
KV Mechelen
OH Leuven
Kortrijk

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Union St.Gilloise	53%	38%	0%	9%	0%
Gent	15%	52%	0%	34%	0%
Sporting Charleroi	14%	52%	0%	34%	0%
Club Brugge	8%	42%	0%	50%	0%
Standard Liège	4%	27%	0%	69%	0%
Genk	2%	22%	0%	75%	0%
Zulte Waregem	1%	19%	0%	80%	0%
St.Truiden	1%	15%	0%	84%	1%
Anderlecht	1%	13%	0%	86%	1%
Westerlo	1%	11%	0%	87%	1%
SK Beveren	0%	5%	0%	92%	3%
Lommel	0%	1%	0%	88%	10%
Cercle Brugge	0%	1%	0%	86%	13%
RAAL La Louvière	0%	1%	0%	85%	14%
Royal Antwerp	0%	0%	0%	78%	21%
KV Mechelen	0%	0%	0%	74%	26%
OH Leuven	0%	0%	0%	63%	37%
Kortrijk	0%	0%	0%	28%	72%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Union St.Gilloise+48
Gent+9
Sporting Charleroi+9
Royal Antwerp-6
Cercle Brugge-6
KV Mechelen-6

How they got here6 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Union St.Gilloise	1	1	5	0
Gent	2	1	4	+2
Club Brugge	3	1	4	-1
Sporting Charleroi	4	1	4	-1
Zulte Waregem	5	5	6	0
Standard Liège	6	6	11	+3
Anderlecht	7	6	11	-1
SK Beveren	8	8	13	+5
Genk	9	7	14	+5
St.Truiden	10	8	13	+1
Royal Antwerp	11	2	11	-4
Lommel	12	8	13	-2
Westerlo	13	13	18	+5
RAAL La Louvière	14	12	16	-2
Cercle Brugge	15	8	15	-7
KV Mechelen	16	14	16	0
OH Leuven	17	15	17	-2
Kortrijk	18	17	18	-1

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.