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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Major League Soccer · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Nashville SC have won it

Settled — the remaining fixtures cannot change it.

Title chance

100%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Nashville SC7574–77Nashville SC: projected 75 points, likely range 74 to 77. Title chance 100%.
  • Vancouver6461–64Vancouver Whitecaps: projected 64 points, likely range 61 to 64. Title chance 0%.
  • Inter Miami CF6059–62Inter Miami CF: projected 60 points, likely range 59 to 62. Title chance 0%.
  • New England5958–61New England Revolution: projected 59 points, likely range 58 to 61. Title chance 0%.
  • Chicago5855–58Chicago Fire FC: projected 58 points, likely range 55 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • Dallas5855–58FC Dallas: projected 58 points, likely range 55 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • Charlotte FC5453–56Charlotte FC: projected 54 points, likely range 53 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • San Jose5352–55San Jose Earthquakes: projected 53 points, likely range 52 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • St. Louis City5251–54St. Louis City: projected 52 points, likely range 51 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Houston5251–54Houston Dynamo FC: projected 52 points, likely range 51 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • Philadelphia5047–50Philadelphia Union: projected 50 points, likely range 47 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • LAFC4847–50Los Angeles FC: projected 48 points, likely range 47 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Cincinnati4746–49FC Cincinnati: projected 47 points, likely range 46 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Portland4643–46Portland Timbers: projected 46 points, likely range 43 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Salt Lake4542–45Real Salt Lake: projected 45 points, likely range 42 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Columbus4444–47Columbus Crew: projected 44 points, likely range 44 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • LA Galaxy4444–47LA Galaxy: projected 44 points, likely range 44 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Orlando4443–46Orlando City: projected 44 points, likely range 43 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Seattle Sounders4443–46Seattle Sounders FC: projected 44 points, likely range 43 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Colorado4343–46Colorado Rapids: projected 43 points, likely range 43 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Minnesota4241–44Minnesota United: projected 42 points, likely range 41 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • San Diego FC4138–41San Diego FC: projected 41 points, likely range 38 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • NY Red Bulls4039–42Red Bull New York: projected 40 points, likely range 39 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • NYCFC4039–42New York City FC: projected 40 points, likely range 39 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • Toronto3939–42Toronto FC: projected 39 points, likely range 39 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • Austin FC3434–37Austin FC: projected 34 points, likely range 34 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlanta United3433–36Atlanta United: projected 34 points, likely range 33 to 36. Title chance 0%.
  • DC United3433–36DC United: projected 34 points, likely range 33 to 36. Title chance 0%.
  • Montreal2626–29CF Montréal: projected 26 points, likely range 26 to 29. Title chance 0%.
  • Sporting KC2323–26Sporting Kansas City: projected 23 points, likely range 23 to 26. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Nashville SC7474757777100%
Vancouver Whitecaps61626464640%
Inter Miami CF59596062620%
New England Revolution58585961610%
Chicago Fire FC55565858580%
FC Dallas55565858580%
Charlotte FC53535456560%
San Jose Earthquakes52525355550%
St. Louis City51515254540%
Houston Dynamo FC51515254540%
Philadelphia Union47485050500%
Los Angeles FC47474850500%
FC Cincinnati46464749490%
Portland Timbers43444646460%
Real Salt Lake42434545450%
Columbus Crew44444445470%
LA Galaxy44444445470%
Orlando City43434446460%
Seattle Sounders FC43434446460%
Colorado Rapids43434344460%
Minnesota United41414244440%
San Diego FC38394141410%
Red Bull New York39394042420%
New York City FC39394042420%
Toronto FC39393940420%
Austin FC34343435370%
Atlanta United33333436360%
DC United33333436360%
CF Montréal26262627290%
Sporting Kansas City23232324260%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Nashville SC
  • Vancouver
  • Inter Miami CF
  • New England
  • Chicago
  • Dallas
  • Charlotte FC
  • San Jose
  • St. Louis City
  • Houston
  • Philadelphia
  • LAFC
  • Cincinnati
  • Columbus
  • Portland
  • LA Galaxy
  • Salt Lake
  • Seattle Sounders
  • Colorado
  • Orlando
  • Minnesota
  • NYCFC
  • San Diego FC
  • NY Red Bulls
  • Toronto
  • Austin FC
  • Atlanta United
  • DC United
  • Montreal
  • Sporting KC
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Nashville SC100%0%0%100%0%
Vancouver Whitecaps0%100%0%100%0%
Inter Miami CF0%100%0%100%0%
New England Revolution0%74%0%100%0%
Chicago Fire FC0%17%0%100%0%
FC Dallas0%9%0%100%0%
Charlotte FC0%0%0%100%0%
San Jose Earthquakes0%0%0%100%0%
St. Louis City0%0%0%100%0%
Houston Dynamo FC0%0%0%100%0%
Philadelphia Union0%0%0%100%0%
Los Angeles FC0%0%0%100%0%
FC Cincinnati0%0%0%100%0%
Columbus Crew0%0%0%100%0%
Portland Timbers0%0%0%100%0%
LA Galaxy0%0%0%100%0%
Real Salt Lake0%0%0%100%0%
Seattle Sounders FC0%0%0%100%0%
Colorado Rapids0%0%0%100%0%
Orlando City0%0%0%100%0%
Minnesota United0%0%0%100%0%
New York City FC0%0%0%100%0%
San Diego FC0%0%0%100%0%
Red Bull New York0%0%0%100%0%
Toronto FC0%0%0%100%0%
Austin FC0%0%0%100%0%
Atlanta United0%0%0%100%0%
DC United0%0%0%100%0%
CF Montréal0%0%0%100%0%
Sporting Kansas City0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Nashville SC+97
  • Vancouver-3
  • Inter Miami CF-3
  • New England-3
  • Chicago-3
  • Dallas-3
How they got here33 matchweeks
Position by matchweekNASVANINTNEWCHIFCDCHASANSTLHOUPHILOSFCCCOLLAGPORCOOORLSEAREAMINREDNEYTORSADAUSATLDCUCFMSPO

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Nashville SC1120
Vancouver Whitecaps2211+9
Inter Miami CF3230+27
New England Revolution4229+23
Chicago Fire FC5322+17
FC Dallas6416+2
Charlotte FC7724+8
San Jose Earthquakes8110-5
St. Louis City9329+8
Houston Dynamo FC104200
Philadelphia Union111130+13
Los Angeles FC12113-8
FC Cincinnati13626-7
Columbus Crew141429+7
LA Galaxy15723+3
Portland Timbers16725-9
Colorado Rapids17726+9
Orlando City181430+5
Seattle Sounders FC19419-14
Real Salt Lake20525+5
Minnesota United21726-8
Red Bull New York22625-13
New York City FC23523-7
Toronto FC241127-5
San Diego FC25225-23
Austin FC261028-12
Atlanta United272330+2
DC United281228-16
CF Montréal292029-9
Sporting Kansas City302030-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.