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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Major League Soccer · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Nashville SC are favourites

Ahead of Vancouver Whitecaps on 14%. The model projects them to finish on 69 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 64.

Title chance

82%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Nashville SC6964–74Nashville SC: projected 69 points, likely range 64 to 74. Title chance 82%.
  • Vancouver6358–68Vancouver Whitecaps: projected 63 points, likely range 58 to 68. Title chance 14%.
  • Inter Miami CF5853–63Inter Miami CF: projected 58 points, likely range 53 to 63. Title chance 1%.
  • New England5853–63New England Revolution: projected 58 points, likely range 53 to 63. Title chance <1%.
  • Houston5751–62Houston Dynamo FC: projected 57 points, likely range 51 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • St. Louis City5752–62St. Louis City: projected 57 points, likely range 52 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • Dallas5651–62FC Dallas: projected 56 points, likely range 51 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • San Jose5449–59San Jose Earthquakes: projected 54 points, likely range 49 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • LAFC5349–58Los Angeles FC: projected 53 points, likely range 49 to 58. Title chance <1%.
  • Charlotte FC5348–58Charlotte FC: projected 53 points, likely range 48 to 58. Title chance <1%.
  • Chicago5247–57Chicago Fire FC: projected 52 points, likely range 47 to 57. Title chance <1%.
  • Philadelphia5247–57Philadelphia Union: projected 52 points, likely range 47 to 57. Title chance 0%.
  • Colorado4843–53Colorado Rapids: projected 48 points, likely range 43 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Orlando4641–51Orlando City: projected 46 points, likely range 41 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Seattle Sounders4539–50Seattle Sounders FC: projected 45 points, likely range 39 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Portland4338–48Portland Timbers: projected 43 points, likely range 38 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • NYCFC4237–47New York City FC: projected 42 points, likely range 37 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Salt Lake4237–47Real Salt Lake: projected 42 points, likely range 37 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • DC United4237–48DC United: projected 42 points, likely range 37 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Toronto4237–47Toronto FC: projected 42 points, likely range 37 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Cincinnati4136–46FC Cincinnati: projected 41 points, likely range 36 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • NY Red Bulls4035–45Red Bull New York: projected 40 points, likely range 35 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Minnesota4035–45Minnesota United: projected 40 points, likely range 35 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • San Diego FC3934–44San Diego FC: projected 39 points, likely range 34 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • LA Galaxy3934–43LA Galaxy: projected 39 points, likely range 34 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Austin FC3935–44Austin FC: projected 39 points, likely range 35 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlanta United3833–43Atlanta United: projected 38 points, likely range 33 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Columbus3530–40Columbus Crew: projected 35 points, likely range 30 to 40. Title chance 0%.
  • Sporting KC3125–36Sporting Kansas City: projected 31 points, likely range 25 to 36. Title chance 0%.
  • Montreal3026–35CF Montréal: projected 30 points, likely range 26 to 35. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Nashville SC646669727482%
Vancouver Whitecaps586063666814%
Inter Miami CF53555861631%
New England Revolution5356586163<1%
Houston Dynamo FC5154575962<1%
St. Louis City5255576062<1%
FC Dallas5154565962<1%
San Jose Earthquakes4952545759<1%
Los Angeles FC4951535658<1%
Charlotte FC4850535658<1%
Chicago Fire FC4749525457<1%
Philadelphia Union47495255570%
Colorado Rapids43454850530%
Orlando City41444649510%
Seattle Sounders FC39424548500%
Portland Timbers38414346480%
New York City FC37404245470%
Real Salt Lake37394245470%
DC United37404245480%
Toronto FC37394245470%
FC Cincinnati36384143460%
Red Bull New York35374042450%
Minnesota United35374042450%
San Diego FC34373942440%
LA Galaxy34363941430%
Austin FC35373942440%
Atlanta United33353840430%
Columbus Crew30323538400%
Sporting Kansas City25283133360%
CF Montréal26283033350%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Nashville SC
  • Vancouver
  • New England
  • Inter Miami CF
  • St. Louis City
  • Houston
  • Dallas
  • San Jose
  • LAFC
  • Charlotte FC
  • Philadelphia
  • Chicago
  • Colorado
  • Orlando
  • Seattle Sounders
  • Portland
  • NYCFC
  • DC United
  • Salt Lake
  • Toronto
  • Cincinnati
  • Minnesota
  • NY Red Bulls
  • San Diego FC
  • Austin FC
  • LA Galaxy
  • Atlanta United
  • Columbus
  • Sporting KC
  • Montreal
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Nashville SC82%18%0%100%0%
Vancouver Whitecaps14%73%0%100%0%
New England Revolution1%44%0%100%0%
Inter Miami CF1%42%0%100%0%
St. Louis City1%35%0%100%0%
Houston Dynamo FC0%25%0%100%0%
FC Dallas0%24%0%100%0%
San Jose Earthquakes0%12%0%100%0%
Los Angeles FC0%10%0%100%0%
Charlotte FC0%9%0%100%0%
Philadelphia Union0%4%0%100%0%
Chicago Fire FC0%5%0%100%0%
Colorado Rapids0%0%0%100%0%
Orlando City0%0%0%100%0%
Seattle Sounders FC0%0%0%100%0%
Portland Timbers0%0%0%100%0%
New York City FC0%0%0%100%0%
DC United0%0%0%100%0%
Real Salt Lake0%0%0%100%0%
Toronto FC0%0%0%100%0%
FC Cincinnati0%0%0%100%0%
Minnesota United0%0%0%100%0%
Red Bull New York0%0%0%100%0%
San Diego FC0%0%0%100%0%
Austin FC0%0%0%100%0%
LA Galaxy0%0%0%100%0%
Atlanta United0%0%0%100%0%
Columbus Crew0%0%0%100%0%
Sporting Kansas City0%0%0%100%0%
CF Montréal0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Nashville SC+79
  • Vancouver+11
  • Colorado-3
  • Orlando-3
  • Philadelphia-3
  • Portland-3
How they got here21 matchweeks
Position by matchweekNASVANINTNEWHOUFCDSANSTLCHACHILOSCOLORLPHIPORNEYFCCSADREDLAGREAMINAUSDCUTORSEACOUATLCFMSPO

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Nashville SC1120
Vancouver Whitecaps2211+9
Inter Miami CF3230+27
New England Revolution4429+23
Houston Dynamo FC5320+5
FC Dallas6616+2
San Jose Earthquakes718-4
St. Louis City8829+9
Charlotte FC9724+6
Chicago Fire FC10522+12
Los Angeles FC11111-7
Colorado Rapids12726+14
Orlando City131330+10
Philadelphia Union141430+10
Portland Timbers15725-8
New York City FC165210
FC Cincinnati17626-11
San Diego FC18224-16
Red Bull New York19624-10
LA Galaxy20723-2
Real Salt Lake21525+4
Minnesota United22622-9
Austin FC231028-9
DC United241224-12
Toronto FC251226-6
Seattle Sounders FC26526-21
Columbus Crew271829-6
Atlanta United282330+1
CF Montréal292029-9
Sporting Kansas City302030-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.