Primera División · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Argentinos Juniors are favourites

Ahead of River Plate on 24%. The model projects them to finish on 64 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 60.

Title chance

40%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Argentinos Juniors6460–68Argentinos Juniors: projected 64 points, likely range 60 to 68. Title chance 40%.
River Plate6258–67River Plate: projected 62 points, likely range 58 to 67. Title chance 24%.
Rosario Central6156–65Rosario Central: projected 61 points, likely range 56 to 65. Title chance 12%.
Belgrano6157–66Belgrano: projected 61 points, likely range 57 to 66. Title chance 16%.
Independiente Rivadavia5955–64Independiente Rivadavia: projected 59 points, likely range 55 to 64. Title chance 6%.
Gimnasia LP5853–62Gimnasia LP: projected 58 points, likely range 53 to 62. Title chance 1%.
Vélez Sarsfield5651–60Vélez Sarsfield: projected 56 points, likely range 51 to 60. Title chance <1%.
Boca Juniors5551–60Boca Juniors: projected 55 points, likely range 51 to 60. Title chance <1%.
Estudiantes5147–55Estudiantes: projected 51 points, likely range 47 to 55. Title chance 0%.
Instituto5046–54Instituto: projected 50 points, likely range 46 to 54. Title chance 0%.
Independiente4945–53Independiente: projected 49 points, likely range 45 to 53. Title chance 0%.
Lanús4843–52Lanús: projected 48 points, likely range 43 to 52. Title chance 0%.
Unión4642–51Unión: projected 46 points, likely range 42 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Huracán4642–51Huracán: projected 46 points, likely range 42 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Defensa y Justicia4541–49Defensa y Justicia: projected 45 points, likely range 41 to 49. Title chance 0%.
Gimnasia Mendoza4440–48Gimnasia Mendoza: projected 44 points, likely range 40 to 48. Title chance 0%.
Barracas Central4439–48Barracas Central: projected 44 points, likely range 39 to 48. Title chance 0%.
Sarmiento4439–48Sarmiento: projected 44 points, likely range 39 to 48. Title chance 0%.
Talleres4338–47Talleres: projected 43 points, likely range 38 to 47. Title chance 0%.
San Lorenzo4238–47San Lorenzo: projected 42 points, likely range 38 to 47. Title chance 0%.
Tigre4036–44Tigre: projected 40 points, likely range 36 to 44. Title chance 0%.
Newell's Old Boys3833–42Newell's Old Boys: projected 38 points, likely range 33 to 42. Title chance 0%.
Atlético Tucumán3733–41Atlético Tucumán: projected 37 points, likely range 33 to 41. Title chance 0%.
Club Atlético Platense3530–39Club Atlético Platense: projected 35 points, likely range 30 to 39. Title chance 0%.
Racing Club3531–39Racing Club: projected 35 points, likely range 31 to 39. Title chance 0%.
Banfield3329–37Banfield: projected 33 points, likely range 29 to 37. Title chance 0%.
Central Córdoba de Santiago3127–36Central Córdoba de Santiago: projected 31 points, likely range 27 to 36. Title chance 0%.
Deportivo Riestra2824–33Deportivo Riestra: projected 28 points, likely range 24 to 33. Title chance 0%.
Aldosivi2016–25Aldosivi: projected 20 points, likely range 16 to 25. Title chance 0%.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1814–22Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: projected 18 points, likely range 14 to 22. Title chance 0%.
Instituto00–0Instituto: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Vélez Sarsfield00–0Vélez Sarsfield: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Defensa y Justicia00–0Defensa y Justicia: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Gimnasia Mendoza00–0Gimnasia Mendoza: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Boca Juniors00–0Boca Juniors: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Independiente00–0Independiente: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Lanús00–0Lanús: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Unión00–0Unión: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Newell's Old Boys00–0Newell's Old Boys: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
San Lorenzo00–0San Lorenzo: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Estudiantes00–0Estudiantes: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Deportivo Riestra00–0Deportivo Riestra: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Club Atlético Platense00–0Club Atlético Platense: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Talleres00–0Talleres: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Central Córdoba de Santiago00–0Central Córdoba de Santiago: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Argentinos Juniors00–0Argentinos Juniors: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Sarmiento00–0Sarmiento: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Gimnasia LP00–0Gimnasia LP: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Rosario Central00–0Rosario Central: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Independiente Rivadavia00–0Independiente Rivadavia: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Belgrano00–0Belgrano: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
River Plate00–0River Plate: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Atlético Tucumán00–0Atlético Tucumán: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Huracán00–0Huracán: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Tigre00–0Tigre: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Barracas Central00–0Barracas Central: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Banfield00–0Banfield: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto00–0Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Aldosivi00–0Aldosivi: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
Racing Club00–0Racing Club: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Argentinos Juniors	60	62	64	66	68	40%
River Plate	58	60	62	65	67	24%
Rosario Central	56	59	61	63	65	12%
Belgrano	57	59	61	64	66	16%
Independiente Rivadavia	55	57	59	61	64	6%
Gimnasia LP	53	55	58	60	62	1%
Vélez Sarsfield	51	53	56	58	60	<1%
Boca Juniors	51	53	55	58	60	<1%
Estudiantes	47	49	51	53	55	0%
Instituto	46	48	50	52	54	0%
Independiente	45	47	49	51	53	0%
Lanús	43	45	48	50	52	0%
Unión	42	44	46	49	51	0%
Huracán	42	44	46	49	51	0%
Defensa y Justicia	41	43	45	47	49	0%
Gimnasia Mendoza	40	41	44	46	48	0%
Barracas Central	39	41	44	46	48	0%
Sarmiento	39	41	44	46	48	0%
Talleres	38	40	43	45	47	0%
San Lorenzo	38	40	42	45	47	0%
Tigre	36	37	40	42	44	0%
Newell's Old Boys	33	35	38	40	42	0%
Atlético Tucumán	33	35	37	39	41	0%
Club Atlético Platense	30	32	35	37	39	0%
Racing Club	31	33	35	37	39	0%
Banfield	29	30	33	35	37	0%
Central Córdoba de Santiago	27	29	31	33	36	0%
Deportivo Riestra	24	26	28	31	33	0%
Aldosivi	16	18	20	23	25	0%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	14	16	18	20	22	0%
Instituto	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Vélez Sarsfield	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Defensa y Justicia	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Gimnasia Mendoza	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Boca Juniors	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Independiente	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Lanús	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Unión	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Newell's Old Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0%
San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Estudiantes	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Deportivo Riestra	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Club Atlético Platense	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Talleres	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Central Córdoba de Santiago	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Argentinos Juniors	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Sarmiento	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Gimnasia LP	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Rosario Central	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Independiente Rivadavia	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Belgrano	0	0	0	0	0	0%
River Plate	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Atlético Tucumán	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Huracán	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Tigre	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Barracas Central	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Banfield	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Aldosivi	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Racing Club	0	0	0	0	0	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Argentinos Juniors
River Plate
Belgrano
Rosario Central
Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia LP
Vélez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes
Instituto
Independiente
Lanús
Huracán
Unión
Defensa y Justicia
Barracas Central
Gimnasia Mendoza
Sarmiento
Talleres
San Lorenzo
Tigre
Newell's Old Boys
Atlético Tucumán
Racing Club
Club Atlético Platense
Banfield
Central Córdoba de Santiago
Deportivo Riestra
Aldosivi
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes
River Plate
Atlético Tucumán
Independiente
Talleres
Central Córdoba de Santiago
Belgrano
Huracán
Barracas Central
Instituto
Vélez Sarsfield
Unión
Newell's Old Boys
Deportivo Riestra
Sarmiento
Rosario Central
Tigre
Aldosivi
Racing Club
Lanús
San Lorenzo
Club Atlético Platense
Argentinos Juniors
Gimnasia LP
Independiente Rivadavia
Banfield
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Defensa y Justicia
Gimnasia Mendoza

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Argentinos Juniors	40%	49%	0%	100%	0%
River Plate	24%	58%	0%	100%	0%
Belgrano	16%	54%	0%	100%	0%
Rosario Central	12%	51%	0%	100%	0%
Independiente Rivadavia	6%	41%	0%	100%	0%
Gimnasia LP	1%	22%	0%	100%	0%
Vélez Sarsfield	0%	13%	0%	100%	0%
Boca Juniors	0%	11%	0%	100%	0%
Estudiantes	0%	1%	0%	100%	0%
Instituto	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Independiente	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Lanús	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Huracán	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Unión	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Defensa y Justicia	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Barracas Central	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Gimnasia Mendoza	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Sarmiento	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Talleres	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
San Lorenzo	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Tigre	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Newell's Old Boys	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Atlético Tucumán	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Racing Club	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Club Atlético Platense	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Banfield	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Central Córdoba de Santiago	0%	0%	0%	99%	1%
Deportivo Riestra	0%	0%	0%	96%	4%
Aldosivi	0%	0%	0%	5%	95%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0%	0%	0%	1%	99%
Boca Juniors	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Estudiantes	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
River Plate	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Atlético Tucumán	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Independiente	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Talleres	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Central Córdoba de Santiago	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Belgrano	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Huracán	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Barracas Central	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Instituto	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Vélez Sarsfield	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Unión	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Newell's Old Boys	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Deportivo Riestra	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Sarmiento	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Rosario Central	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Tigre	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Aldosivi	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Racing Club	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Lanús	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
San Lorenzo	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Club Atlético Platense	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Argentinos Juniors	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Gimnasia LP	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Independiente Rivadavia	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Banfield	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Defensa y Justicia	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Gimnasia Mendoza	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Argentinos Juniors+39
River Plate+22
Belgrano+14
Rosario Central+10
Independiente Rivadavia+5
Instituto-2

How they got here16 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Independiente Rivadavia	2	1	12	+9
Estudiantes	4	1	30	+25
Boca Juniors	6	5	32	+9
River Plate	8	1	42	+5
Argentinos Juniors	10	7	38	+9
Vélez Sarsfield	12	1	18	+5
Rosario Central	14	9	44	+29
Belgrano	16	1	20	-11
Talleres	18	7	42	-11
Gimnasia LP	20	9	38	-11
Independiente	22	9	36	+1
Lanús	24	3	44	-21
Huracán	26	17	42	-1
San Lorenzo	28	15	44	+11
Unión	30	13	46	+3
Racing Club	32	17	60	+9
Instituto	34	27	58	+15
Barracas Central	36	31	54	+17
Tigre	38	1	38	-37
Defensa y Justicia	40	11	40	-3
Sarmiento	42	25	52	+9
Gimnasia Mendoza	44	21	50	-23
Banfield	46	23	50	-19
Club Atlético Platense	48	11	48	-17
Central Córdoba de Santiago	50	41	56	+5
Newell's Old Boys	52	41	60	-7
Atlético Tucumán	54	41	54	-7
Deportivo Riestra	56	51	60	+1
Aldosivi	58	35	58	-23
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	60	53	60	-1

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.