Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · 2026 - Clausura · 8,000 simulated seasons

Instituto are favourites

Ahead of Rosario Central on 34%. The model projects them to finish on 35 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 33.

Title chance

57%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Instituto3433–36Instituto: projected 34 points, likely range 33 to 36. Title chance 57%.
  • Rosario Central3431–34Rosario Central: projected 34 points, likely range 31 to 34. Title chance 34%.
  • Argentinos Juniors3229–34Argentinos Juniors: projected 32 points, likely range 29 to 34. Title chance 4%.
  • Boca Juniors3130–33Boca Juniors: projected 31 points, likely range 30 to 33. Title chance 4%.
  • Defensa y Justicia3028–33Defensa y Justicia: projected 30 points, likely range 28 to 33. Title chance <1%.
  • Vélez Sarsfield2928–31Vélez Sarsfield: projected 29 points, likely range 28 to 31. Title chance 0%.
  • Gimnasia LP2928–31Gimnasia LP: projected 29 points, likely range 28 to 31. Title chance 0%.
  • Lanús2825–28Lanús: projected 28 points, likely range 25 to 28. Title chance 0%.
  • Barracas Central2623–26Barracas Central: projected 26 points, likely range 23 to 26. Title chance 0%.
  • River Plate2423–26River Plate: projected 24 points, likely range 23 to 26. Title chance 0%.
  • Belgrano2423–26Belgrano: projected 24 points, likely range 23 to 26. Title chance 0%.
  • Newell's Old Boys2322–25Newell's Old Boys: projected 23 points, likely range 22 to 25. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente2219–23Independiente: projected 22 points, likely range 19 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza2221–24Gimnasia Mendoza: projected 22 points, likely range 21 to 24. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente Rivadavia2219–25Independiente Rivadavia: projected 22 points, likely range 19 to 25. Title chance 0%.
  • Sarmiento2121–24Sarmiento: projected 21 points, likely range 21 to 24. Title chance 0%.
  • San Lorenzo2019–22San Lorenzo: projected 20 points, likely range 19 to 22. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlético Tucumán2017–23Atlético Tucumán: projected 20 points, likely range 17 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • Unión1918–21Unión: projected 19 points, likely range 18 to 21. Title chance 0%.
  • Huracán1919–22Huracán: projected 19 points, likely range 19 to 22. Title chance 0%.
  • Tigre1916–19Tigre: projected 19 points, likely range 16 to 19. Title chance 0%.
  • Club Atlético Platense1815–20Club Atlético Platense: projected 18 points, likely range 15 to 20. Title chance 0%.
  • Estudiantes1615–18Estudiantes: projected 16 points, likely range 15 to 18. Title chance 0%.
  • Banfield1614–18Banfield: projected 16 points, likely range 14 to 18. Title chance 0%.
  • Racing Club1515–18Racing Club: projected 15 points, likely range 15 to 18. Title chance 0%.
  • Talleres1312–15Talleres: projected 13 points, likely range 12 to 15. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo Riestra1312–15Deportivo Riestra: projected 13 points, likely range 12 to 15. Title chance 0%.
  • Aldosivi1211–14Aldosivi: projected 12 points, likely range 11 to 14. Title chance 0%.
  • Central Córdoba de Santiago1110–13Central Córdoba de Santiago: projected 11 points, likely range 10 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto99–12Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: projected 9 points, likely range 9 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Instituto00–0Instituto: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Boca Juniors00–0Boca Juniors: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Vélez Sarsfield00–0Vélez Sarsfield: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Defensa y Justicia00–0Defensa y Justicia: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Lanús00–0Lanús: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Newell's Old Boys00–0Newell's Old Boys: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza00–0Gimnasia Mendoza: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente00–0Independiente: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • San Lorenzo00–0San Lorenzo: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Unión00–0Unión: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Estudiantes00–0Estudiantes: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Club Atlético Platense00–0Club Atlético Platense: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Talleres00–0Talleres: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Deportivo Riestra00–0Deportivo Riestra: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Central Córdoba de Santiago00–0Central Córdoba de Santiago: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Rosario Central00–0Rosario Central: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Argentinos Juniors00–0Argentinos Juniors: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Gimnasia LP00–0Gimnasia LP: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • River Plate00–0River Plate: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Belgrano00–0Belgrano: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Barracas Central00–0Barracas Central: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Sarmiento00–0Sarmiento: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Huracán00–0Huracán: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente Rivadavia00–0Independiente Rivadavia: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Atlético Tucumán00–0Atlético Tucumán: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Tigre00–0Tigre: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Racing Club00–0Racing Club: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Banfield00–0Banfield: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Aldosivi00–0Aldosivi: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto00–0Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: projected 0 points, likely range 0 to 0. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Instituto333334363657%
Rosario Central313234343434%
Argentinos Juniors29313232344%
Boca Juniors30303133334%
Defensa y Justicia2828303133<1%
Vélez Sarsfield28282931310%
Gimnasia LP28282931310%
Lanús25262828280%
Barracas Central23242626260%
River Plate23232426260%
Belgrano23232426260%
Newell's Old Boys22222325250%
Independiente19202223230%
Gimnasia Mendoza21212224240%
Independiente Rivadavia19202223250%
Sarmiento21212122240%
San Lorenzo19192022220%
Atlético Tucumán17182021230%
Unión18181921210%
Huracán19191920220%
Tigre16171919190%
Club Atlético Platense15171820200%
Estudiantes15151618180%
Banfield14151617180%
Racing Club15151516180%
Talleres12121315150%
Deportivo Riestra12121315150%
Aldosivi11111214140%
Central Córdoba de Santiago10101113130%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto99910120%
Instituto000000%
Boca Juniors000000%
Vélez Sarsfield000000%
Defensa y Justicia000000%
Lanús000000%
Newell's Old Boys000000%
Gimnasia Mendoza000000%
Independiente000000%
San Lorenzo000000%
Unión000000%
Estudiantes000000%
Club Atlético Platense000000%
Talleres000000%
Deportivo Riestra000000%
Central Córdoba de Santiago000000%
Rosario Central000000%
Argentinos Juniors000000%
Gimnasia LP000000%
River Plate000000%
Belgrano000000%
Barracas Central000000%
Sarmiento000000%
Huracán000000%
Independiente Rivadavia000000%
Atlético Tucumán000000%
Tigre000000%
Racing Club000000%
Banfield000000%
Aldosivi000000%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto000000%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Instituto
  • Rosario Central
  • Boca Juniors
  • Argentinos Juniors
  • Vélez Sarsfield
  • Defensa y Justicia
  • Gimnasia LP
  • Lanús
  • River Plate
  • Barracas Central
  • Belgrano
  • Newell's Old Boys
  • Gimnasia Mendoza
  • Sarmiento
  • Independiente Rivadavia
  • Independiente
  • Atlético Tucumán
  • San Lorenzo
  • Huracán
  • Unión
  • Tigre
  • Club Atlético Platense
  • Estudiantes
  • Banfield
  • Racing Club
  • Talleres
  • Deportivo Riestra
  • Aldosivi
  • Central Córdoba de Santiago
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
  • Instituto
  • Independiente Rivadavia
  • Vélez Sarsfield
  • Defensa y Justicia
  • Newell's Old Boys
  • Unión
  • Club Atlético Platense
  • Talleres
  • Rosario Central
  • Gimnasia LP
  • River Plate
  • Tigre
  • Racing Club
  • Aldosivi
  • Boca Juniors
  • Gimnasia Mendoza
  • Independiente
  • Argentinos Juniors
  • San Lorenzo
  • Estudiantes
  • Deportivo Riestra
  • Central Córdoba de Santiago
  • Belgrano
  • Barracas Central
  • Sarmiento
  • Huracán
  • Banfield
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
  • Lanús
  • Atlético Tucumán
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Instituto57%43%0%100%0%
Rosario Central34%63%0%100%0%
Boca Juniors4%63%0%100%0%
Argentinos Juniors4%63%0%100%0%
Vélez Sarsfield0%32%0%100%0%
Defensa y Justicia1%29%0%100%0%
Gimnasia LP0%8%0%100%0%
Lanús0%0%0%100%0%
River Plate0%0%0%100%0%
Barracas Central0%0%0%100%0%
Belgrano0%0%0%100%0%
Newell's Old Boys0%0%0%100%0%
Gimnasia Mendoza0%0%0%100%0%
Sarmiento0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente Rivadavia0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente0%0%0%100%0%
Atlético Tucumán0%0%0%100%0%
San Lorenzo0%0%0%100%0%
Huracán0%0%0%100%0%
Unión0%0%0%100%0%
Tigre0%0%0%100%0%
Club Atlético Platense0%0%0%100%0%
Estudiantes0%0%0%100%0%
Banfield0%0%0%100%0%
Racing Club0%0%0%100%0%
Talleres0%0%0%97%3%
Deportivo Riestra0%0%0%91%9%
Aldosivi0%0%0%78%22%
Central Córdoba de Santiago0%0%0%26%74%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto0%0%0%8%92%
Instituto0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente Rivadavia0%0%0%100%0%
Vélez Sarsfield0%0%0%100%0%
Defensa y Justicia0%0%0%100%0%
Newell's Old Boys0%0%0%100%0%
Unión0%0%0%100%0%
Club Atlético Platense0%0%0%100%0%
Talleres0%0%0%100%0%
Rosario Central0%0%0%100%0%
Gimnasia LP0%0%0%100%0%
River Plate0%0%0%100%0%
Tigre0%0%0%100%0%
Racing Club0%0%0%100%0%
Aldosivi0%0%0%100%0%
Boca Juniors0%0%0%100%0%
Gimnasia Mendoza0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente0%0%0%100%0%
Argentinos Juniors0%0%0%100%0%
San Lorenzo0%0%0%100%0%
Estudiantes0%0%0%100%0%
Deportivo Riestra0%0%0%100%0%
Central Córdoba de Santiago0%0%0%100%0%
Belgrano0%0%0%100%0%
Barracas Central0%0%0%100%0%
Sarmiento0%0%0%100%0%
Huracán0%0%0%100%0%
Banfield0%0%0%100%0%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto0%0%0%100%0%
Lanús0%0%0%100%0%
Atlético Tucumán0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Instituto+55
  • Rosario Central+32
  • Argentinos Juniors+3
  • Boca Juniors+2
  • Instituto-2
  • Boca Juniors-2
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.