Austrian Bundesliga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Rapid Wien are favourites
Ahead of Salzburg on 35%. The model projects them to finish on 51 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 46.
Title chance
63%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Rapid Wien5146–56Rapid Wien: projected 51 points, likely range 46 to 56. Title chance 63%.
- Salzburg4943–54Salzburg: projected 49 points, likely range 43 to 54. Title chance 35%.
- LASK4135–46LASK: projected 41 points, likely range 35 to 46. Title chance 2%.
- Sturm Graz3832–43Sturm Graz: projected 38 points, likely range 32 to 43. Title chance <1%.
- Hartberg3428–39Hartberg: projected 34 points, likely range 28 to 39. Title chance <1%.
- Ried3126–37Ried: projected 31 points, likely range 26 to 37. Title chance 0%.
- WSG Tirol2621–31WSG Tirol: projected 26 points, likely range 21 to 31. Title chance 0%.
- Altach2318–28Altach: projected 23 points, likely range 18 to 28. Title chance 0%.
- Grazer AK2116–26Grazer AK: projected 21 points, likely range 16 to 26. Title chance 0%.
- Austria Wien2015–26Austria Wien: projected 20 points, likely range 15 to 26. Title chance 0%.
- Wolfsberger AC1813–23Wolfsberger AC: projected 18 points, likely range 13 to 23. Title chance 0%.
- Austria Lustenau1612–21Austria Lustenau: projected 16 points, likely range 12 to 21. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Wien | 46 | 48 | 51 | 54 | 56 | 63% |
| Salzburg | 43 | 46 | 49 | 52 | 54 | 35% |
| LASK | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 46 | 2% |
| Sturm Graz | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 43 | <1% |
| Hartberg | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 39 | <1% |
| Ried | 26 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 0% |
| WSG Tirol | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 0% |
| Altach | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 0% |
| Grazer AK | 16 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 0% |
| Austria Wien | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 0% |
| Wolfsberger AC | 13 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 0% |
| Austria Lustenau | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Rapid Wien
- Salzburg
- LASK
- Sturm Graz
- Hartberg
- Ried
- WSG Tirol
- Altach
- Grazer AK
- Austria Wien
- Wolfsberger AC
- Austria Lustenau
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Wien | 63% | 37% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Salzburg | 35% | 65% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| LASK | 2% | 88% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Sturm Graz | 0% | 70% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Hartberg | 0% | 26% | 0% | 90% | 10% |
| Ried | 0% | 12% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| WSG Tirol | 0% | 1% | 0% | 22% | 78% |
| Altach | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 92% |
| Grazer AK | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| Austria Wien | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| Wolfsberger AC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Austria Lustenau | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Rapid Wien+54
- Salzburg+27
- Ried-8
- WSG Tirol-8
- Grazer AK-8
- Altach-8
How they got here11 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Wien | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
| Salzburg | 2 | 2 | 5 | +1 |
| LASK | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| Sturm Graz | 4 | 4 | 5 | +1 |
| Hartberg | 5 | 5 | 12 | +5 |
| Ried | 6 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| WSG Tirol | 7 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Altach | 8 | 6 | 12 | +1 |
| Grazer AK | 9 | 7 | 12 | +3 |
| Austria Lustenau | 10 | 5 | 11 | -2 |
| Austria Wien | 11 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 1 | 12 | -11 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.