Liga Nacional · 2026/2027 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons
CD Olimpia are favourites
Ahead of Real España on 13%. The model projects them to finish on 37 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 34.
Title chance
83%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- CD Olimpia3734–41CD Olimpia: projected 37 points, likely range 34 to 41. Title chance 83%.
- Real España3430–37Real España: projected 34 points, likely range 30 to 37. Title chance 13%.
- FC Motagua3127–34FC Motagua: projected 31 points, likely range 27 to 34. Title chance 3%.
- CD Marathón2926–32CD Marathón: projected 29 points, likely range 26 to 32. Title chance <1%.
- Olancho FC2218–25Olancho FC: projected 22 points, likely range 18 to 25. Title chance 0%.
- Estrella Roja2118–25Estrella Roja: projected 21 points, likely range 18 to 25. Title chance 0%.
- Lobos UPNFM2117–24Lobos UPNFM: projected 21 points, likely range 17 to 24. Title chance 0%.
- CD Choloma1815–22CD Choloma: projected 18 points, likely range 15 to 22. Title chance 0%.
- Genesis FC1713–20Genesis FC: projected 17 points, likely range 13 to 20. Title chance 0%.
- Atletico Independiente1512–19Atletico Independiente: projected 15 points, likely range 12 to 19. Title chance 0%.
- Platense FC129–15Platense FC: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 15. Title chance 0%.
- Juticalpa96–13Juticalpa: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Olimpia | 34 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 83% |
| Real España | 30 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 13% |
| FC Motagua | 27 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 3% |
| CD Marathón | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 32 | <1% |
| Olancho FC | 18 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 0% |
| Estrella Roja | 18 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 0% |
| Lobos UPNFM | 17 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 0% |
| CD Choloma | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 0% |
| Genesis FC | 13 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 0% |
| Atletico Independiente | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 0% |
| Platense FC | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 0% |
| Juticalpa | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- CD Olimpia
- Real España
- FC Motagua
- CD Marathón
- Olancho FC
- Estrella Roja
- Lobos UPNFM
- CD Choloma
- Genesis FC
- Atletico Independiente
- Platense FC
- Juticalpa
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Olimpia | 83% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Real España | 13% | 87% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Motagua | 3% | 95% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| CD Marathón | 0% | 96% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Olancho FC | 0% | 3% | 66% | 31% | 0% |
| Estrella Roja | 0% | 2% | 56% | 43% | 0% |
| Lobos UPNFM | 0% | 1% | 47% | 53% | 0% |
| CD Choloma | 0% | 0% | 16% | 84% | 0% |
| Genesis FC | 0% | 0% | 8% | 92% | 1% |
| Atletico Independiente | 0% | 0% | 2% | 96% | 1% |
| Platense FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 77% | 23% |
| Juticalpa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 75% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- CD Olimpia+75
- Olancho FC-8
- Estrella Roja-8
- Lobos UPNFM-8
- CD Choloma-8
- Genesis FC-8
How they got here12 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Olimpia | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
| Real España | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| FC Motagua | 3 | 2 | 8 | -1 |
| CD Marathón | 4 | 1 | 6 | +2 |
| Olancho FC | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Estrella Roja | 6 | 5 | 8 | +2 |
| Lobos UPNFM | 7 | 6 | 12 | +3 |
| CD Choloma | 8 | 5 | 11 | +1 |
| Genesis FC | 9 | 3 | 9 | -6 |
| Atletico Independiente | 10 | 7 | 10 | -3 |
| Platense FC | 11 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| Juticalpa | 12 | 11 | 12 | 0 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.