Liga Nacional · 2026/2027 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons
CD Marathón are favourites
Ahead of Real España on 18%. The model projects them to finish on 21 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 18.
Title chance
73%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- CD Marathón2118–23CD Marathón: projected 21 points, likely range 18 to 23. Title chance 73%.
- Real España1816–21Real España: projected 18 points, likely range 16 to 21. Title chance 18%.
- CD Olimpia1715–20CD Olimpia: projected 17 points, likely range 15 to 20. Title chance 8%.
- FC Motagua1613–19FC Motagua: projected 16 points, likely range 13 to 19. Title chance 2%.
- Genesis FC1311–16Genesis FC: projected 13 points, likely range 11 to 16. Title chance 0%.
- Olancho FC1310–16Olancho FC: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 16. Title chance 0%.
- Estrella Roja129–15Estrella Roja: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 15. Title chance 0%.
- Atletico Independiente119–13Atletico Independiente: projected 11 points, likely range 9 to 13. Title chance 0%.
- Platense FC86–11Platense FC: projected 8 points, likely range 6 to 11. Title chance 0%.
- Lobos UPNFM75–9Lobos UPNFM: projected 7 points, likely range 5 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- CD Choloma74–8CD Choloma: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 8. Title chance 0%.
- Juticalpa43–7Juticalpa: projected 4 points, likely range 3 to 7. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Marathón | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 73% |
| Real España | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 18% |
| CD Olimpia | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 8% |
| FC Motagua | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 2% |
| Genesis FC | 11 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 0% |
| Olancho FC | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 0% |
| Estrella Roja | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 0% |
| Atletico Independiente | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 0% |
| Platense FC | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 0% |
| Lobos UPNFM | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0% |
| CD Choloma | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0% |
| Juticalpa | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- CD Marathón
- Real España
- CD Olimpia
- FC Motagua
- Genesis FC
- Olancho FC
- Estrella Roja
- Atletico Independiente
- Platense FC
- Lobos UPNFM
- CD Choloma
- Juticalpa
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Marathón | 73% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Real España | 18% | 79% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| CD Olimpia | 8% | 83% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Motagua | 2% | 72% | 26% | 1% | 0% |
| Genesis FC | 0% | 22% | 55% | 23% | 0% |
| Olancho FC | 0% | 10% | 50% | 40% | 0% |
| Estrella Roja | 0% | 3% | 30% | 67% | 0% |
| Atletico Independiente | 0% | 3% | 27% | 70% | 0% |
| Platense FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Lobos UPNFM | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91% | 9% |
| CD Choloma | 0% | 0% | 0% | 86% | 14% |
| Juticalpa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 65% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- CD Marathón+64
- Real España+10
- Genesis FC-8
- Olancho FC-8
- Atletico Independiente-8
- Estrella Roja-8
How they got here7 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Marathón | 1 | 1 | 6 | +5 |
| Real España | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| CD Olimpia | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 |
| FC Motagua | 4 | 2 | 8 | -2 |
| Genesis FC | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 |
| Olancho FC | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 |
| Atletico Independiente | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Estrella Roja | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Lobos UPNFM | 9 | 9 | 12 | +1 |
| Platense FC | 10 | 9 | 11 | +1 |
| CD Choloma | 11 | 9 | 11 | -2 |
| Juticalpa | 12 | 11 | 12 | 0 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.