Conference League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Hajduk Split are favourites

Ahead of Universitatea Craiova on 4%. The model projects them to finish on 9 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 4.

Title chance

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Brann95–13Brann: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Egnatia95–13Egnatia: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance 3%.
FC Twente94–13FC Twente: projected 9 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
KuPS95–13KuPS: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Monaco94–13Monaco: projected 9 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
AGF84–13AGF: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Ajax84–12Ajax: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 3%.
Atalanta84–12Atalanta: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
Borac Banja Luka84–12Borac Banja Luka: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
Braga84–12Braga: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 3%.
Brighton84–13Brighton & Hove Albion: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
CSKA Sofia84–12CSKA Sofia: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
FC København84–12FC København: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
FC Midtjylland84–13FC Midtjylland: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 4%.
Nordsjælland84–12Nordsjælland: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
FK Crvena Zvezda84–12FK Crvena Zvezda: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 3%.
FK Kauno Žalgiris84–13FK Kauno Žalgiris: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Freiburg84–13Freiburg: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Gent84–12Gent: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
Getafe84–13Getafe: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Hajduk Split84–13Hajduk Split: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 4%.
Hearts84–13Heart of Midlothian: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Iberia 199984–12Iberia 1999: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 3%.
Inter Club d'Escaldes84–12Inter Club d'Escaldes: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 3%.
Jablonec84–13Jablonec: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Kairat Almaty84–12Kairat Almaty: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
Lugano84–13Lugano: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Mjällby84–13Mjällby: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Pafos FC84–13Pafos FC: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Panathinaikos84–13Panathinaikos: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Riga FC84–13Riga FC: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
St.Truiden84–13St.Truiden: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 3%.
Thun84–12Thun: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 3%.
Trabzonspor84–12Trabzonspor: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 2%.
Universitatea Craiova84–13Universitatea Craiova: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 4%.
Lincoln Red Imps FC63–10Lincoln Red Imps FC: projected 6 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance <1%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Brann	5	7	9	11	13	3%
Egnatia	5	6	9	11	13	3%
FC Twente	4	6	9	11	13	3%
KuPS	5	7	9	11	13	3%
Monaco	4	6	9	11	13	3%
AGF	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Ajax	4	6	8	10	12	3%
Atalanta	4	6	8	10	12	2%
Borac Banja Luka	4	6	8	10	12	2%
Braga	4	6	8	10	12	3%
Brighton & Hove Albion	4	6	8	10	13	3%
CSKA Sofia	4	6	8	10	12	2%
FC København	4	6	8	10	12	2%
FC Midtjylland	4	6	8	11	13	4%
Nordsjælland	4	6	8	10	12	2%
FK Crvena Zvezda	4	6	8	10	12	3%
FK Kauno Žalgiris	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Freiburg	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Gent	4	6	8	10	12	2%
Getafe	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Hajduk Split	4	6	8	11	13	4%
Heart of Midlothian	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Iberia 1999	4	6	8	10	12	3%
Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	6	8	10	12	3%
Jablonec	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Kairat Almaty	4	6	8	10	12	2%
Lugano	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Mjällby	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Pafos FC	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Panathinaikos	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Riga FC	4	6	8	10	13	3%
St.Truiden	4	6	8	10	13	3%
Thun	4	6	8	10	12	3%
Trabzonspor	4	6	8	10	12	2%
Universitatea Craiova	4	6	8	11	13	4%
Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	4	6	9	10	<1%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

KuPS
Brann
Egnatia
FC Twente
Hajduk Split
FC Midtjylland
Monaco
Universitatea Craiova
FK Kauno Žalgiris
Jablonec
Mjällby
Pafos FC
Riga FC
AGF
Ajax
Iberia 1999
Panathinaikos
Thun
FC København
FK Crvena Zvezda
Freiburg
Hearts
Lugano
St.Truiden
Atalanta
Brighton
CSKA Sofia
Getafe
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Kairat Almaty
Trabzonspor
Borac Banja Luka
Braga
Nordsjælland
Gent
Lincoln Red Imps FC

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
KuPS	3%	11%	0%	100%	0%
Brann	3%	10%	0%	100%	0%
Egnatia	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
FC Twente	3%	10%	0%	100%	0%
Hajduk Split	4%	10%	0%	100%	0%
FC Midtjylland	4%	10%	0%	100%	0%
Monaco	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
Universitatea Craiova	4%	9%	0%	100%	0%
FK Kauno Žalgiris	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Jablonec	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
Mjällby	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Pafos FC	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
Riga FC	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
AGF	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Ajax	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Iberia 1999	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Panathinaikos	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
Thun	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
FC København	2%	8%	0%	100%	0%
FK Crvena Zvezda	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Freiburg	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
Heart of Midlothian	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Lugano	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
St.Truiden	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Atalanta	2%	9%	0%	100%	0%
Brighton & Hove Albion	3%	9%	0%	100%	0%
CSKA Sofia	2%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Getafe	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Inter Club d'Escaldes	3%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Kairat Almaty	2%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Trabzonspor	2%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Borac Banja Luka	2%	7%	0%	100%	0%
Braga	3%	7%	0%	100%	0%
Nordsjælland	2%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Gent	2%	8%	0%	100%	0%
Lincoln Red Imps FC	1%	3%	0%	100%	0%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Lincoln Red Imps FC-2
Hajduk Split+1

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.