Conference League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
FC Twente are favourites
Ahead of Panathinaikos on 15%. The model projects them to finish on 13 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 10.
Title chance
18%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Panathinaikos139–16Panathinaikos: projected 13 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance 15%.
- FC Twente1310–16FC Twente: projected 13 points, likely range 10 to 16. Title chance 18%.
- Lugano129–16Lugano: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance 10%.
- Brann129–16Brann: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance 11%.
- Trabzonspor129–16Trabzonspor: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance 10%.
- Monaco129–15Monaco: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 15. Title chance 10%.
- St.Truiden128–15St.Truiden: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 15. Title chance 7%.
- Hajduk Split129–16Hajduk Split: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance 7%.
- Brighton107–13Brighton & Hove Albion: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 13. Title chance 3%.
- FC København107–13FC København: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 13. Title chance 2%.
- Universitatea Craiova107–13Universitatea Craiova: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 13. Title chance 2%.
- Mjällby107–14Mjällby: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance 2%.
- Ajax95–12Ajax: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Atalanta95–12Atalanta: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Braga95–12Braga: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Borac Banja Luka85–12Borac Banja Luka: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Gent85–12Gent: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Freiburg84–12Freiburg: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Egnatia85–11Egnatia: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 11. Title chance <1%.
- Riga FC85–12Riga FC: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance <1%.
- Nordsjælland73–11Nordsjælland: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 11. Title chance <1%.
- FK Crvena Zvezda73–10FK Crvena Zvezda: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance <1%.
- FC Midtjylland74–11FC Midtjylland: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 11. Title chance <1%.
- Hearts73–10Heart of Midlothian: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance 0%.
- Getafe73–10Getafe: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance 0%.
- CSKA Sofia63–10CSKA Sofia: projected 6 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance <1%.
- Jablonec63–10Jablonec: projected 6 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance <1%.
- AGF62–10AGF: projected 6 points, likely range 2 to 10. Title chance <1%.
- Iberia 199963–10Iberia 1999: projected 6 points, likely range 3 to 10. Title chance <1%.
- Pafos FC52–9Pafos FC: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance <1%.
- Kairat Almaty52–9Kairat Almaty: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- Thun52–9Thun: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- KuPS52–9KuPS: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- Inter Club d'Escaldes52–9Inter Club d'Escaldes: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC41–7Lincoln Red Imps FC: projected 4 points, likely range 1 to 7. Title chance 0%.
- FK Kauno Žalgiris41–8FK Kauno Žalgiris: projected 4 points, likely range 1 to 8. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 9 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 15% |
| FC Twente | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18% |
| Lugano | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 10% |
| Brann | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 11% |
| Trabzonspor | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 10% |
| Monaco | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 10% |
| St.Truiden | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 7% |
| Hajduk Split | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 7% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 3% |
| FC København | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 2% |
| Universitatea Craiova | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 2% |
| Mjällby | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 2% |
| Ajax | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Atalanta | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Braga | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Gent | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Freiburg | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Egnatia | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | <1% |
| Riga FC | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | <1% |
| Nordsjælland | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | <1% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | <1% |
| FC Midtjylland | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | <1% |
| Heart of Midlothian | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 0% |
| Getafe | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 0% |
| CSKA Sofia | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | <1% |
| Jablonec | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | <1% |
| AGF | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | <1% |
| Iberia 1999 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | <1% |
| Pafos FC | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | <1% |
| Kairat Almaty | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0% |
| Thun | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0% |
| KuPS | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
- FC Twente
- Panathinaikos
- Brann
- Trabzonspor
- Lugano
- Monaco
- Hajduk Split
- St.Truiden
- Brighton
- Mjällby
- FC København
- Universitatea Craiova
- Ajax
- Atalanta
- Braga
- Borac Banja Luka
- Riga FC
- Gent
- Egnatia
- Freiburg
- FC Midtjylland
- Nordsjælland
- FK Crvena Zvezda
- Hearts
- CSKA Sofia
- Getafe
- Jablonec
- Iberia 1999
- AGF
- Pafos FC
- Thun
- KuPS
- Kairat Almaty
- Inter Club d'Escaldes
- FK Kauno Žalgiris
- Lincoln Red Imps FC
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente | 18% | 34% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Panathinaikos | 15% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Brann | 11% | 28% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Trabzonspor | 10% | 28% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Lugano | 10% | 27% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Monaco | 10% | 26% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Hajduk Split | 7% | 24% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| St.Truiden | 7% | 20% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Mjällby | 2% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FC København | 2% | 11% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova | 2% | 10% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Ajax | 0% | 5% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Atalanta | 0% | 4% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Braga | 0% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 0% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Riga FC | 0% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Gent | 0% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Egnatia | 0% | 2% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Freiburg | 0% | 2% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FC Midtjylland | 0% | 2% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Nordsjælland | 0% | 2% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| CSKA Sofia | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Getafe | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Jablonec | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Iberia 1999 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| AGF | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Pafos FC | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Thun | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| KuPS | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Kairat Almaty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- FC Twente+15
- Panathinaikos+12
- Brann+8
- Lugano+8
- Trabzonspor+8
- Monaco+7
How they got here2 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 10 | +9 |
| Lugano | 2 | 2 | 8 | +6 |
| Brann | 3 | 3 | 12 | +9 |
| Trabzonspor | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| FC Twente | 5 | 5 | 13 | +8 |
| Monaco | 6 | 6 | 9 | +3 |
| St.Truiden | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 |
| Hajduk Split | 8 | 8 | 11 | +3 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 1 | 9 | -8 |
| FC København | 10 | 2 | 10 | -8 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 11 | 22 | +11 |
| Mjällby | 12 | 6 | 12 | -6 |
| Ajax | 13 | 13 | 25 | +12 |
| Borac Banja Luka | 14 | 14 | 26 | +12 |
| Atalanta | 15 | 4 | 15 | -11 |
| Braga | 16 | 16 | 35 | +19 |
| Gent | 17 | 14 | 17 | -3 |
| Freiburg | 18 | 7 | 18 | -11 |
| Nordsjælland | 19 | 17 | 19 | -2 |
| Riga FC | 20 | 19 | 20 | -1 |
| Egnatia | 21 | 20 | 21 | -1 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 22 | 22 | 24 | +2 |
| CSKA Sofia | 23 | 23 | 28 | +5 |
| Jablonec | 24 | 23 | 24 | -1 |
| FC Midtjylland | 25 | 15 | 25 | -10 |
| AGF | 26 | 26 | 29 | +3 |
| Pafos FC | 27 | 27 | 32 | +5 |
| Iberia 1999 | 28 | 28 | 33 | +5 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 29 | 21 | 29 | -8 |
| Getafe | 30 | 16 | 30 | -14 |
| Kairat Almaty | 31 | 18 | 31 | -13 |
| Thun | 32 | 30 | 32 | -2 |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 33 | 27 | 33 | -6 |
| KuPS | 34 | 31 | 34 | -3 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 35 | 34 | 35 | -1 |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris | 36 | 36 | 36 | 0 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.