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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Panameña · 2026 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons

CD Plaza Amador have won it

Settled — the remaining fixtures cannot change it.

Title chance

100%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • CD Plaza Amador7271–74CD Plaza Amador: projected 72 points, likely range 71 to 74. Title chance 100%.
  • Veraguas United5251–54Veraguas United: projected 52 points, likely range 51 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • UMECIT FC4948–51UMECIT FC: projected 49 points, likely range 48 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • San Francisco FC4746–49San Francisco FC: projected 47 points, likely range 46 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Árabe Unido4544–47CD Árabe Unido: projected 45 points, likely range 44 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Tauro FC4441–44Tauro FC: projected 44 points, likely range 41 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Alianza FC4444–47Alianza FC: projected 44 points, likely range 44 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente de La Chorrera4241–44Independiente de La Chorrera: projected 42 points, likely range 41 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Sporting San Miguelito3635–38Sporting San Miguelito: projected 36 points, likely range 35 to 38. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Universitario3128–31CD Universitario: projected 31 points, likely range 28 to 31. Title chance 0%.
  • Union Cocle3029–32Union Cocle: projected 30 points, likely range 29 to 32. Title chance 0%.
  • Herrera FC1919–22Herrera FC: projected 19 points, likely range 19 to 22. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
CD Plaza Amador7171727474100%
Veraguas United51515254540%
UMECIT FC48484951510%
San Francisco FC46464749490%
CD Árabe Unido44444547470%
Tauro FC41424444440%
Alianza FC44444445470%
Independiente de La Chorrera41414244440%
Sporting San Miguelito35353638380%
CD Universitario28293131310%
Union Cocle29293032320%
Herrera FC19191920220%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • CD Plaza Amador
  • Veraguas United
  • UMECIT FC
  • San Francisco FC
  • CD Árabe Unido
  • Alianza FC
  • Tauro FC
  • Independiente de La Chorrera
  • Sporting San Miguelito
  • CD Universitario
  • Union Cocle
  • Herrera FC
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
CD Plaza Amador100%0%0%100%0%
Veraguas United0%100%0%100%0%
UMECIT FC0%100%0%100%0%
San Francisco FC0%85%0%100%0%
CD Árabe Unido0%10%0%100%0%
Alianza FC0%5%0%100%0%
Tauro FC0%0%0%100%0%
Independiente de La Chorrera0%0%0%100%0%
Sporting San Miguelito0%0%0%100%0%
CD Universitario0%0%0%100%0%
Union Cocle0%0%0%100%0%
Herrera FC0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • CD Plaza Amador+92
  • CD Árabe Unido-8
  • UMECIT FC-8
  • Tauro FC-8
  • Sporting San Miguelito-8
  • Alianza FC-8
How they got here14 matchweeks
Position by matchweekCDPVERCDRUMETAUSANINDALISPOCDUUNIHER

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
CD Plaza Amador1112+11
Veraguas United219+7
CD Árabe Unido3212+7
UMECIT FC41110
Tauro FC5511+2
San Francisco FC628-3
Independiente de La Chorrera719-6
Alianza FC8280
Sporting San Miguelito9211-7
CD Universitario10511-5
Union Cocle117110
Herrera FC12612-6
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.