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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Panameña · 2026 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons

CD Plaza Amador have won it

Settled — the remaining fixtures cannot change it.

Title chance

>99%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • CD Plaza Amador6965–74CD Plaza Amador: projected 69 points, likely range 65 to 74. Title chance >99%.
  • Alianza FC5247–56Alianza FC: projected 52 points, likely range 47 to 56. Title chance <1%.
  • Veraguas United5247–56Veraguas United: projected 52 points, likely range 47 to 56. Title chance <1%.
  • San Francisco FC5045–54San Francisco FC: projected 50 points, likely range 45 to 54. Title chance 0%.
  • UMECIT FC4844–53UMECIT FC: projected 48 points, likely range 44 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Árabe Unido4642–51CD Árabe Unido: projected 46 points, likely range 42 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Tauro FC4339–48Tauro FC: projected 43 points, likely range 39 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Independiente de La Chorrera4035–45Independiente de La Chorrera: projected 40 points, likely range 35 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Union Cocle3935–44Union Cocle: projected 39 points, likely range 35 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Sporting San Miguelito3632–41Sporting San Miguelito: projected 36 points, likely range 32 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Universitario3026–35CD Universitario: projected 30 points, likely range 26 to 35. Title chance 0%.
  • Herrera FC1916–24Herrera FC: projected 19 points, likely range 16 to 24. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
CD Plaza Amador6567697274>99%
Alianza FC4749525456<1%
Veraguas United4749525456<1%
San Francisco FC45475052540%
UMECIT FC44464851530%
CD Árabe Unido42444649510%
Tauro FC39414346480%
Independiente de La Chorrera35384043450%
Union Cocle35373942440%
Sporting San Miguelito32343639410%
CD Universitario26283033350%
Herrera FC16171922240%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • CD Plaza Amador
  • Veraguas United
  • Alianza FC
  • San Francisco FC
  • UMECIT FC
  • CD Árabe Unido
  • Tauro FC
  • Independiente de La Chorrera
  • Union Cocle
  • Sporting San Miguelito
  • CD Universitario
  • Herrera FC
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
CD Plaza Amador100%0%0%100%0%
Veraguas United0%79%0%100%0%
Alianza FC0%77%0%100%0%
San Francisco FC0%60%0%100%0%
UMECIT FC0%47%0%100%0%
CD Árabe Unido0%25%0%100%0%
Tauro FC0%9%0%100%0%
Independiente de La Chorrera0%2%0%100%0%
Union Cocle0%1%0%100%0%
Sporting San Miguelito0%0%0%100%0%
CD Universitario0%0%0%100%0%
Herrera FC0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • CD Plaza Amador+92
  • CD Árabe Unido-8
  • Tauro FC-8
  • UMECIT FC-8
  • Sporting San Miguelito-8
  • San Francisco FC-8
How they got here8 matchweeks
Position by matchweekCDPSANVERALICDRSPOINDUMETAUUNICDUHER

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
CD Plaza Amador1112+11
San Francisco FC227+1
Veraguas United319+6
Alianza FC428+4
CD Árabe Unido5212+5
Sporting San Miguelito6211-4
Independiente de La Chorrera717-6
UMECIT FC8111-4
Tauro FC9611-2
Union Cocle10711+1
CD Universitario11511-6
Herrera FC12612-6
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.