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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Championship · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Middlesbrough are favourites

Ahead of West Bromwich Albion on 9%. The model projects them to finish on 98 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 89.

Title chance

84%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Middlesbrough9889–107Middlesbrough: projected 98 points, likely range 89 to 107. Title chance 84%.
  • West Brom8676–95West Bromwich Albion: projected 86 points, likely range 76 to 95. Title chance 9%.
  • Southampton8273–91Southampton: projected 82 points, likely range 73 to 91. Title chance 5%.
  • Wolves7464–83Wolverhampton Wanderers: projected 74 points, likely range 64 to 83. Title chance <1%.
  • Birmingham7465–84Birmingham City: projected 74 points, likely range 65 to 84. Title chance <1%.
  • QPR7464–83Queens Park Rangers: projected 74 points, likely range 64 to 83. Title chance <1%.
  • Millwall7364–82Millwall: projected 73 points, likely range 64 to 82. Title chance <1%.
  • Stoke7263–82Stoke City: projected 72 points, likely range 63 to 82. Title chance <1%.
  • Sheff Utd7263–82Sheffield United: projected 72 points, likely range 63 to 82. Title chance <1%.
  • Swansea7161–80Swansea City: projected 71 points, likely range 61 to 80. Title chance <1%.
  • West Ham7161–80West Ham United: projected 71 points, likely range 61 to 80. Title chance <1%.
  • Bristol City6656–75Bristol City: projected 66 points, likely range 56 to 75. Title chance <1%.
  • Portsmouth6253–71Portsmouth: projected 62 points, likely range 53 to 71. Title chance 0%.
  • Norwich6151–70Norwich City: projected 61 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance 0%.
  • Wrexham6151–70Wrexham: projected 61 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance 0%.
  • Cardiff5445–64Cardiff City: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 64. Title chance 0%.
  • Watford5445–63Watford: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance 0%.
  • Blackburn5244–61Blackburn Rovers: projected 52 points, likely range 44 to 61. Title chance 0%.
  • Burnley5142–60Burnley: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance 0%.
  • Lincoln4637–55Lincoln City: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Charlton4637–55Charlton Athletic: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Derby4435–53Derby County: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Bolton4133–50Bolton Wanderers: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Preston3627–45Preston North End: projected 36 points, likely range 27 to 45. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Middlesbrough89939810310784%
West Bromwich Albion76818690959%
Southampton73778287915%
Wolverhampton Wanderers6469747983<1%
Birmingham City6569747984<1%
Queens Park Rangers6468747983<1%
Millwall6468737882<1%
Stoke City6367727782<1%
Sheffield United6367727782<1%
Swansea City6166717680<1%
West Ham United6166717680<1%
Bristol City5661667175<1%
Portsmouth53576267710%
Norwich City51566166700%
Wrexham51566166700%
Cardiff City45495459640%
Watford45495459630%
Blackburn Rovers44485257610%
Burnley42465156600%
Lincoln City37414650550%
Charlton Athletic37414650550%
Derby County35394449530%
Bolton Wanderers33374146500%
Preston North End27323641450%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Middlesbrough
  • West Brom
  • Southampton
  • Birmingham
  • QPR
  • Wolves
  • Millwall
  • Stoke
  • Sheff Utd
  • West Ham
  • Swansea
  • Bristol City
  • Portsmouth
  • Wrexham
  • Norwich
  • Cardiff
  • Watford
  • Blackburn
  • Burnley
  • Charlton
  • Lincoln
  • Derby
  • Bolton
  • Preston
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Middlesbrough84%15%0%100%0%
West Bromwich Albion9%72%0%100%0%
Southampton5%62%0%100%0%
Birmingham City0%25%0%100%0%
Queens Park Rangers0%21%0%100%0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers0%21%0%100%0%
Millwall0%20%0%100%0%
Stoke City0%16%0%100%0%
Sheffield United0%16%0%100%0%
West Ham United0%13%0%100%0%
Swansea City0%12%0%100%0%
Bristol City0%3%0%100%0%
Portsmouth0%1%0%100%0%
Wrexham0%1%0%99%1%
Norwich City0%1%0%99%1%
Cardiff City0%0%0%94%6%
Watford0%0%0%93%7%
Blackburn Rovers0%0%0%91%9%
Burnley0%0%0%88%12%
Charlton Athletic0%0%0%64%36%
Lincoln City0%0%0%63%37%
Derby County0%0%0%55%45%
Bolton Wanderers0%0%0%38%62%
Preston North End0%0%0%16%84%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Middlesbrough+80
  • West Brom+5
  • Portsmouth-4
  • Blackburn-4
  • Norwich-4
  • Lincoln-4
How they got here13 matchweeks
Position by matchweekMIDSOUSWAWOLWBABIRSTKWHUQUESHUPORMILBLABRINORLINCARWREBOLCHAWATBURDERPRE

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Middlesbrough1112+4
Southampton2221+19
Swansea City3180
Wolverhampton Wanderers4210+6
West Bromwich Albion5110+2
Birmingham City6516+10
Stoke City7524+11
West Ham United8119+3
Queens Park Rangers919-8
Sheffield United10919+5
Portsmouth111123+12
Millwall12113-10
Blackburn Rovers13619-1
Bristol City14424+10
Norwich City151124+7
Lincoln City16923+4
Cardiff City171322-4
Wrexham181220-4
Bolton Wanderers19621-13
Charlton Athletic20120-16
Watford21722-13
Burnley22924-13
Derby County231723-6
Preston North End241924-5
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.