Championship · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Middlesbrough are favourites
Ahead of West Ham United on 23%. The model projects them to finish on 82 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 72.
Title chance
38%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Middlesbrough8272–93Middlesbrough: projected 82 points, likely range 72 to 93. Title chance 38%.
- West Ham7968–89West Ham United: projected 79 points, likely range 68 to 89. Title chance 23%.
- Southampton7463–84Southampton: projected 74 points, likely range 63 to 84. Title chance 9%.
- Birmingham7362–83Birmingham City: projected 73 points, likely range 62 to 83. Title chance 6%.
- Millwall7261–82Millwall: projected 72 points, likely range 61 to 82. Title chance 5%.
- Swansea7161–82Swansea City: projected 71 points, likely range 61 to 82. Title chance 4%.
- West Brom7060–81West Bromwich Albion: projected 70 points, likely range 60 to 81. Title chance 3%.
- Wolves7059–81Wolverhampton Wanderers: projected 70 points, likely range 59 to 81. Title chance 3%.
- Bristol City6959–80Bristol City: projected 69 points, likely range 59 to 80. Title chance 3%.
- Norwich6958–79Norwich City: projected 69 points, likely range 58 to 79. Title chance 2%.
- QPR6757–78Queens Park Rangers: projected 67 points, likely range 57 to 78. Title chance 1%.
- Stoke6454–74Stoke City: projected 64 points, likely range 54 to 74. Title chance <1%.
- Blackburn6050–70Blackburn Rovers: projected 60 points, likely range 50 to 70. Title chance <1%.
- Portsmouth6049–70Portsmouth: projected 60 points, likely range 49 to 70. Title chance <1%.
- Lincoln5949–69Lincoln City: projected 59 points, likely range 49 to 69. Title chance <1%.
- Charlton5848–68Charlton Athletic: projected 58 points, likely range 48 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Sheff Utd5747–68Sheffield United: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Watford5747–67Watford: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 67. Title chance <1%.
- Wrexham5747–68Wrexham: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 68. Title chance <1%.
- Preston5444–65Preston North End: projected 54 points, likely range 44 to 65. Title chance <1%.
- Cardiff5141–62Cardiff City: projected 51 points, likely range 41 to 62. Title chance 0%.
- Derby4737–57Derby County: projected 47 points, likely range 37 to 57. Title chance 0%.
- Burnley4636–56Burnley: projected 46 points, likely range 36 to 56. Title chance 0%.
- Bolton4535–55Bolton Wanderers: projected 45 points, likely range 35 to 55. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 72 | 77 | 82 | 88 | 93 | 38% |
| West Ham United | 68 | 73 | 79 | 84 | 89 | 23% |
| Southampton | 63 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 84 | 9% |
| Birmingham City | 62 | 67 | 73 | 78 | 83 | 6% |
| Millwall | 61 | 66 | 72 | 77 | 82 | 5% |
| Swansea City | 61 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 82 | 4% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 60 | 65 | 70 | 76 | 81 | 3% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 59 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 81 | 3% |
| Bristol City | 59 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 80 | 3% |
| Norwich City | 58 | 63 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 2% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 57 | 62 | 67 | 73 | 78 | 1% |
| Stoke City | 54 | 58 | 64 | 70 | 74 | <1% |
| Blackburn Rovers | 50 | 55 | 60 | 66 | 70 | <1% |
| Portsmouth | 49 | 54 | 60 | 65 | 70 | <1% |
| Lincoln City | 49 | 53 | 59 | 64 | 69 | <1% |
| Charlton Athletic | 48 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| Sheffield United | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| Watford | 47 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 67 | <1% |
| Wrexham | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 68 | <1% |
| Preston North End | 44 | 49 | 54 | 60 | 65 | <1% |
| Cardiff City | 41 | 46 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 0% |
| Derby County | 37 | 41 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 0% |
| Burnley | 36 | 41 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 0% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Middlesbrough
- West Ham
- Southampton
- Birmingham
- Millwall
- Swansea
- West Brom
- Wolves
- Bristol City
- Norwich
- QPR
- Stoke
- Blackburn
- Portsmouth
- Lincoln
- Charlton
- Sheff Utd
- Wrexham
- Watford
- Preston
- Cardiff
- Derby
- Burnley
- Bolton
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 38% | 41% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| West Ham United | 23% | 42% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Southampton | 9% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Birmingham City | 6% | 29% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Millwall | 5% | 26% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Swansea City | 4% | 23% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 3% | 20% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3% | 21% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Bristol City | 3% | 18% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Norwich City | 2% | 17% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 1% | 14% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Stoke City | 1% | 7% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Blackburn Rovers | 0% | 3% | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| Portsmouth | 0% | 2% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Lincoln City | 0% | 2% | 0% | 92% | 8% |
| Charlton Athletic | 0% | 1% | 0% | 91% | 9% |
| Sheffield United | 0% | 1% | 0% | 89% | 11% |
| Wrexham | 0% | 1% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Watford | 0% | 1% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Preston North End | 0% | 0% | 0% | 81% | 20% |
| Cardiff City | 0% | 0% | 0% | 70% | 30% |
| Derby County | 0% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| Burnley | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 0% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 65% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Middlesbrough+34
- West Ham+19
- Southampton+5
- Bolton-4
- Cardiff-4
- Derby-4
How they got here6 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 1 | 1 | 19 | +10 |
| Southampton | 2 | 2 | 21 | +19 |
| Swansea City | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 12 | +1 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 2 | 8 | +2 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 6 | 1 | 6 | -5 |
| Charlton Athletic | 7 | 1 | 7 | -3 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 10 | +2 |
| Lincoln City | 9 | 9 | 23 | +11 |
| Birmingham City | 10 | 9 | 16 | +6 |
| Millwall | 11 | 1 | 11 | -9 |
| Stoke City | 12 | 12 | 24 | +6 |
| Bristol City | 13 | 4 | 24 | +11 |
| Norwich City | 14 | 13 | 24 | +8 |
| Sheffield United | 15 | 9 | 16 | 0 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 16 | 6 | 17 | -4 |
| Watford | 17 | 7 | 19 | -9 |
| Portsmouth | 18 | 11 | 23 | +5 |
| Wrexham | 19 | 12 | 20 | -5 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 20 | 6 | 21 | -14 |
| Cardiff City | 21 | 13 | 22 | -8 |
| Derby County | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 |
| Preston North End | 23 | 19 | 24 | -4 |
| Burnley | 24 | 9 | 24 | -15 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.