Ekstraklasa · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Lech Poznań are favourites

Ahead of Górnik Zabrze on 29%. The model projects them to finish on 72 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 64.

Title chance

67%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Lech Poznań7264–79Lech Poznań: projected 72 points, likely range 64 to 79. Title chance 67%.
Górnik Zabrze6860–75Górnik Zabrze: projected 68 points, likely range 60 to 75. Title chance 29%.
Legia Warszawa5749–65Legia Warszawa: projected 57 points, likely range 49 to 65. Title chance 2%.
Pogoń Szczecin5548–64Pogoń Szczecin: projected 55 points, likely range 48 to 64. Title chance 1%.
Jagiellonia Białystok5446–62Jagiellonia Białystok: projected 54 points, likely range 46 to 62. Title chance <1%.
GKS Katowice5143–58GKS Katowice: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Motor Lublin5143–58Motor Lublin: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Wisła Kraków4941–56Wisła Kraków: projected 49 points, likely range 41 to 56. Title chance <1%.
Piast Gliwice4841–56Piast Gliwice: projected 48 points, likely range 41 to 56. Title chance <1%.
Zagłębie Lubin4840–55Zagłębie Lubin: projected 48 points, likely range 40 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Korona Kielce4436–52Korona Kielce: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 52. Title chance 0%.
Raków Częstochowa4336–51Raków Częstochowa: projected 43 points, likely range 36 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Wisła Płock4033–48Wisła Płock: projected 40 points, likely range 33 to 48. Title chance <1%.
Cracovia3831–46Cracovia: projected 38 points, likely range 31 to 46. Title chance 0%.
Radomiak Radom3528–43Radomiak Radom: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
Widzew Łódź3326–40Widzew Łódź: projected 33 points, likely range 26 to 40. Title chance 0%.
Śląsk Wrocław3124–38Śląsk Wrocław: projected 31 points, likely range 24 to 38. Title chance 0%.
Wieczysta Kraków3124–38Wieczysta Kraków: projected 31 points, likely range 24 to 38. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Lech Poznań	64	68	72	76	79	67%
Górnik Zabrze	60	64	68	72	75	29%
Legia Warszawa	49	53	57	61	65	2%
Pogoń Szczecin	48	51	55	60	64	1%
Jagiellonia Białystok	46	50	54	58	62	<1%
GKS Katowice	43	46	51	55	58	<1%
Motor Lublin	43	46	51	55	58	<1%
Wisła Kraków	41	45	49	53	56	<1%
Piast Gliwice	41	44	48	52	56	<1%
Zagłębie Lubin	40	44	48	52	55	<1%
Korona Kielce	36	40	44	48	52	0%
Raków Częstochowa	36	39	43	48	51	0%
Wisła Płock	33	36	40	44	48	<1%
Cracovia	31	34	38	42	46	0%
Radomiak Radom	28	31	35	39	43	0%
Widzew Łódź	26	29	33	37	40	0%
Śląsk Wrocław	24	27	31	35	38	0%
Wieczysta Kraków	24	27	31	35	38	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Lech Poznań
Górnik Zabrze
Legia Warszawa
Pogoń Szczecin
Jagiellonia Białystok
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Wisła Kraków
Piast Gliwice
Zagłębie Lubin
Korona Kielce
Raków Częstochowa
Wisła Płock
Cracovia
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Śląsk Wrocław
Wieczysta Kraków

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Lech Poznań	67%	33%	0%	1%	0%
Górnik Zabrze	29%	68%	0%	2%	0%
Legia Warszawa	2%	56%	0%	42%	0%
Pogoń Szczecin	1%	43%	0%	56%	0%
Jagiellonia Białystok	1%	35%	0%	64%	0%
GKS Katowice	0%	18%	0%	81%	0%
Motor Lublin	0%	17%	0%	83%	0%
Wisła Kraków	0%	9%	0%	90%	1%
Piast Gliwice	0%	9%	0%	90%	1%
Zagłębie Lubin	0%	7%	0%	92%	2%
Korona Kielce	0%	2%	0%	92%	6%
Raków Częstochowa	0%	2%	0%	92%	6%
Wisła Płock	0%	0%	0%	83%	17%
Cracovia	0%	0%	0%	77%	23%
Radomiak Radom	0%	0%	0%	56%	44%
Widzew Łódź	0%	0%	0%	43%	57%
Śląsk Wrocław	0%	0%	0%	29%	71%
Wieczysta Kraków	0%	0%	0%	28%	72%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Lech Poznań+61
Górnik Zabrze+24
Korona Kielce-6
Cracovia-6
Widzew Łódź-6
Śląsk Wrocław-6

How they got here11 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Lech Poznań	1	1	10	+9
Górnik Zabrze	2	1	4	+2
Pogoń Szczecin	3	3	16	+13
Legia Warszawa	4	2	7	+3
Wisła Kraków	5	2	8	-3
Piast Gliwice	6	6	18	+12
Zagłębie Lubin	7	1	9	-6
GKS Katowice	8	4	13	+5
Korona Kielce	9	7	18	+8
Jagiellonia Białystok	10	3	13	-4
Wisła Płock	11	5	16	-6
Motor Lublin	12	9	16	-3
Cracovia	13	6	15	-2
Widzew Łódź	14	8	14	-6
Śląsk Wrocław	15	10	17	0
Wieczysta Kraków	16	12	18	-4
Radomiak Radom	17	3	17	-14
Raków Częstochowa	18	14	18	-4

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.