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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Górnik Zabrze are favourites

Ahead of Lech Poznań on 42%. The model projects them to finish on 67 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 59.

Title chance

46%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Górnik Zabrze6759–76Górnik Zabrze: projected 67 points, likely range 59 to 76. Title chance 46%.
  • Lech Poznań6758–75Lech Poznań: projected 67 points, likely range 58 to 75. Title chance 42%.
  • Legia Warszawa5849–66Legia Warszawa: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 66. Title chance 7%.
  • Zagłębie Lubin5345–62Zagłębie Lubin: projected 53 points, likely range 45 to 62. Title chance 2%.
  • Jagiellonia Białystok5142–60Jagiellonia Białystok: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance <1%.
  • Pogoń Szczecin5042–59Pogoń Szczecin: projected 50 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • Wisła Kraków4940–57Wisła Kraków: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 57. Title chance <1%.
  • Piast Gliwice4840–57Piast Gliwice: projected 48 points, likely range 40 to 57. Title chance <1%.
  • Korona Kielce4839–56Korona Kielce: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance <1%.
  • GKS Katowice4839–56GKS Katowice: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance <1%.
  • Wisła Płock4536–54Wisła Płock: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 54. Title chance <1%.
  • Widzew Łódź4335–52Widzew Łódź: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance <1%.
  • Cracovia4335–52Cracovia: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance <1%.
  • Radomiak Radom4031–48Radomiak Radom: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Motor Lublin3628–44Motor Lublin: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Śląsk Wrocław3527–44Śląsk Wrocław: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • Wieczysta Kraków3325–42Wieczysta Kraków: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 42. Title chance 0%.
  • Raków Częstochowa3123–40Raków Częstochowa: projected 31 points, likely range 23 to 40. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Górnik Zabrze596367727646%
Lech Poznań586267717542%
Legia Warszawa49535862667%
Zagłębie Lubin45495358622%
Jagiellonia Białystok4247515660<1%
Pogoń Szczecin4246505559<1%
Wisła Kraków4044495357<1%
Piast Gliwice4044485357<1%
Korona Kielce3943485256<1%
GKS Katowice3943485256<1%
Wisła Płock3641455054<1%
Widzew Łódź3538434752<1%
Cracovia3539434752<1%
Radomiak Radom31354044480%
Motor Lublin28313640440%
Śląsk Wrocław27313540440%
Wieczysta Kraków25293338420%
Raków Częstochowa23273136400%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Górnik Zabrze
  • Lech Poznań
  • Legia Warszawa
  • Zagłębie Lubin
  • Jagiellonia Białystok
  • Pogoń Szczecin
  • Wisła Kraków
  • Piast Gliwice
  • GKS Katowice
  • Korona Kielce
  • Wisła Płock
  • Widzew Łódź
  • Cracovia
  • Radomiak Radom
  • Śląsk Wrocław
  • Motor Lublin
  • Wieczysta Kraków
  • Raków Częstochowa
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Górnik Zabrze46%50%0%4%0%
Lech Poznań42%53%0%5%0%
Legia Warszawa7%56%0%37%0%
Zagłębie Lubin2%32%0%66%0%
Jagiellonia Białystok1%24%0%74%1%
Pogoń Szczecin1%21%0%76%2%
Wisła Kraków0%15%0%83%2%
Piast Gliwice0%12%0%85%3%
GKS Katowice0%12%0%84%4%
Korona Kielce0%10%0%86%3%
Wisła Płock0%6%0%86%8%
Widzew Łódź0%3%0%86%11%
Cracovia0%4%0%85%12%
Radomiak Radom0%1%0%72%27%
Śląsk Wrocław0%0%0%52%48%
Motor Lublin0%0%0%54%46%
Wieczysta Kraków0%0%0%38%62%
Raków Częstochowa0%0%0%27%73%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Górnik Zabrze+41
  • Lech Poznań+37
  • Radomiak Radom-6
  • Śląsk Wrocław-6
  • Motor Lublin-6
  • Wieczysta Kraków-6
How they got here6 matchweeks
Position by matchweekGRNLEGLECZAGWISPIAPOGJAGKORGKSWIDCRAWIARADLSKMOTWIERAK

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Górnik Zabrze114+3
Legia Warszawa227+5
Lech Poznań3210+7
Zagłębie Lubin419-3
Wisła Kraków528-3
Piast Gliwice6618+12
Pogoń Szczecin7616+9
Jagiellonia Białystok8310-2
Korona Kielce9918+8
GKS Katowice10613+3
Widzew Łódź11813-3
Cracovia12515-1
Wisła Płock13516-8
Radomiak Radom14316-11
Śląsk Wrocław1510150
Motor Lublin16916-7
Wieczysta Kraków171217-5
Raków Częstochowa181418-4
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.