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Live2015–2016

Premier League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Arsenal are favourites

Ahead of Manchester City on 34%. The model projects them to finish on 80 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 70.

Title chance

63%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Arsenal8070–89Arsenal: projected 80 points, likely range 70 to 89. Title chance 63%.
  • Man City7667–86Manchester City: projected 76 points, likely range 67 to 86. Title chance 34%.
  • Brighton6051–70Brighton & Hove Albion: projected 60 points, likely range 51 to 70. Title chance 1%.
  • Man United5949–68Manchester United: projected 59 points, likely range 49 to 68. Title chance <1%.
  • Leeds5747–66Leeds United: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 66. Title chance <1%.
  • Chelsea5748–67Chelsea: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 67. Title chance <1%.
  • Liverpool5748–67Liverpool: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 67. Title chance <1%.
  • Brentford5444–64Brentford: projected 54 points, likely range 44 to 64. Title chance <1%.
  • Bournemouth5444–64AFC Bournemouth: projected 54 points, likely range 44 to 64. Title chance <1%.
  • Nottm Forest5242–62Nottingham Forest: projected 52 points, likely range 42 to 62. Title chance <1%.
  • Everton5142–61Everton: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 61. Title chance <1%.
  • Newcastle5040–59Newcastle United: projected 50 points, likely range 40 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • Sunderland4737–56Sunderland: projected 47 points, likely range 37 to 56. Title chance <1%.
  • Hull4637–55Hull City: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Ipswich4333–52Ipswich Town: projected 43 points, likely range 33 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Fulham4334–53Fulham: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Aston Villa4334–53Aston Villa: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Crystal Palace4233–52Crystal Palace: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Tottenham4132–51Tottenham Hotspur: projected 41 points, likely range 32 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Coventry3223–41Coventry City: projected 32 points, likely range 23 to 41. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Arsenal707580858963%
Manchester City677176818634%
Brighton & Hove Albion51556065701%
Manchester United4954596468<1%
Leeds United4752576266<1%
Chelsea4852576367<1%
Liverpool4852576267<1%
Brentford4449545964<1%
AFC Bournemouth4449545964<1%
Nottingham Forest4247525762<1%
Everton4246515661<1%
Newcastle United4045505559<1%
Sunderland3742475256<1%
Hull City37414650550%
Ipswich Town33384348520%
Fulham34384348530%
Aston Villa34384348530%
Crystal Palace33384248520%
Tottenham Hotspur32364146510%
Coventry City23283237410%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Arsenal
  • Man City
  • Brighton
  • Man United
  • Chelsea
  • Liverpool
  • Leeds
  • Brentford
  • Bournemouth
  • Nottm Forest
  • Everton
  • Newcastle
  • Sunderland
  • Hull
  • Fulham
  • Aston Villa
  • Ipswich
  • Crystal Palace
  • Tottenham
  • Coventry
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Arsenal63%36%1%0%0%
Manchester City34%63%2%2%0%
Brighton & Hove Albion1%40%13%46%0%
Manchester United1%32%13%54%1%
Chelsea1%26%11%62%1%
Liverpool0%25%11%62%1%
Leeds United0%22%11%65%1%
Brentford0%14%8%75%3%
AFC Bournemouth0%14%8%75%3%
Nottingham Forest0%8%6%81%4%
Everton0%7%6%83%5%
Newcastle United0%5%4%84%7%
Sunderland0%2%2%81%15%
Hull City0%1%2%80%18%
Fulham0%1%1%70%28%
Aston Villa0%1%1%70%28%
Ipswich Town0%1%1%66%32%
Crystal Palace0%1%1%66%32%
Tottenham Hotspur0%0%0%62%37%
Coventry City0%0%0%15%85%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Arsenal+58
  • Man City+29
  • Hull-5
  • Ipswich-5
  • Crystal Palace-5
  • Tottenham-5
How they got here4 matchweeks
Position by matchweekARSMCILEEHULBHACHEBRELIVEVEIPSNFONEWMUNSUNAFCCRYTOTFULAVLCOV

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Arsenal112+1
Manchester City217+5
Leeds United339+6
Hull City4340
Brighton & Hove Albion5110-4
Chelsea6460
Brentford737-4
Liverpool8713+3
Everton959-4
Ipswich Town10814-2
Nottingham Forest111116+4
Newcastle United12612-2
Manchester United131016+3
Sunderland141114-1
AFC Bournemouth151415-1
Crystal Palace161318+1
Tottenham Hotspur171720+1
Fulham181219-6
Aston Villa191720+1
Coventry City201720-1
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.