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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Sirius are favourites

Ahead of Hammarby on 27%. The model projects them to finish on 62 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 57.

Title chance

55%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Sirius6257–67Sirius: projected 62 points, likely range 57 to 67. Title chance 55%.
  • Hammarby5954–64Hammarby: projected 59 points, likely range 54 to 64. Title chance 27%.
  • Djurgården5853–63Djurgården: projected 58 points, likely range 53 to 63. Title chance 19%.
  • Malmö FF4742–52Malmö FF: projected 47 points, likely range 42 to 52. Title chance <1%.
  • Häcken4742–52Häcken: projected 47 points, likely range 42 to 52. Title chance 0%.
  • Elfsborg4641–51Elfsborg: projected 46 points, likely range 41 to 51. Title chance <1%.
  • AIK4540–50AIK: projected 45 points, likely range 40 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Västerås SK4440–49Västerås SK: projected 44 points, likely range 40 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • GAIS4136–46GAIS: projected 41 points, likely range 36 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • IFK Göteborg4035–45IFK Göteborg: projected 40 points, likely range 35 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Brommapojkarna3833–43Brommapojkarna: projected 38 points, likely range 33 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Mjällby3227–37Mjällby: projected 32 points, likely range 27 to 37. Title chance 0%.
  • Kalmar FF3227–38Kalmar FF: projected 32 points, likely range 27 to 38. Title chance 0%.
  • Degerfors3025–34Degerfors: projected 30 points, likely range 25 to 34. Title chance 0%.
  • Örgryte2218–26Örgryte: projected 22 points, likely range 18 to 26. Title chance 0%.
  • Halmstads BK1914–23Halmstads BK: projected 19 points, likely range 14 to 23. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Sirius575962656755%
Hammarby545759626427%
Djurgården535658616319%
Malmö FF4244475052<1%
Häcken42444749520%
Elfsborg4143464851<1%
AIK40424547500%
Västerås SK40424447490%
GAIS36384144460%
IFK Göteborg35384043450%
Brommapojkarna33353840430%
Mjällby27303235370%
Kalmar FF27303235380%
Degerfors25273032340%
Örgryte18192224260%
Halmstads BK14161921230%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Sirius
  • Hammarby
  • Djurgården
  • Malmö FF
  • Häcken
  • Elfsborg
  • AIK
  • Västerås SK
  • GAIS
  • IFK Göteborg
  • Brommapojkarna
  • Kalmar FF
  • Mjällby
  • Degerfors
  • Örgryte
  • Halmstads BK
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Sirius55%45%0%1%0%
Hammarby27%73%0%3%0%
Djurgården19%80%0%4%0%
Malmö FF0%32%0%97%0%
Häcken0%25%0%98%0%
Elfsborg0%20%0%98%0%
AIK0%12%0%99%0%
Västerås SK0%9%0%100%0%
GAIS0%2%0%100%0%
IFK Göteborg0%1%0%100%0%
Brommapojkarna0%0%0%98%2%
Kalmar FF0%0%0%80%20%
Mjällby0%0%0%77%23%
Degerfors0%0%0%44%56%
Örgryte0%0%0%2%98%
Halmstads BK0%0%0%0%100%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Sirius+48
  • Hammarby+20
  • Djurgården+12
  • Häcken-6
  • AIK-6
  • Västerås SK-6
How they got here21 matchweeks
Position by matchweekSIRDJUHAMELFMALHCKAIKVSTIFKGAIBROMJLKALDEGRGRHAL

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Sirius1110
Djurgården229+4
Hammarby329-1
Elfsborg428-1
Malmö FF5211+5
Häcken627+1
AIK7410-3
Västerås SK8512-3
IFK Göteborg9915+5
GAIS10816+2
Brommapojkarna11612-3
Mjällby12516+4
Kalmar FF1310150
Degerfors14715+1
Örgryte15616-6
Halmstads BK161116-5
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.