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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · 2026 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Sirius are favourites

Ahead of Hammarby on 36%. The model projects them to finish on 62 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 59.

Title chance

58%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Sirius6259–65Sirius: projected 62 points, likely range 59 to 65. Title chance 58%.
  • Hammarby6158–64Hammarby: projected 61 points, likely range 58 to 64. Title chance 36%.
  • Djurgården5855–61Djurgården: projected 58 points, likely range 55 to 61. Title chance 6%.
  • Häcken5350–56Häcken: projected 53 points, likely range 50 to 56. Title chance 0%.
  • Elfsborg5047–53Elfsborg: projected 50 points, likely range 47 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Västerås SK4845–51Västerås SK: projected 48 points, likely range 45 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Malmö FF4441–47Malmö FF: projected 44 points, likely range 41 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • AIK4340–47AIK: projected 43 points, likely range 40 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • IFK Göteborg4138–44IFK Göteborg: projected 41 points, likely range 38 to 44. Title chance 0%.
  • GAIS4037–43GAIS: projected 40 points, likely range 37 to 43. Title chance 0%.
  • Brommapojkarna3936–41Brommapojkarna: projected 39 points, likely range 36 to 41. Title chance 0%.
  • Mjällby3229–36Mjällby: projected 32 points, likely range 29 to 36. Title chance 0%.
  • Kalmar FF2824–31Kalmar FF: projected 28 points, likely range 24 to 31. Title chance 0%.
  • Degerfors2320–26Degerfors: projected 23 points, likely range 20 to 26. Title chance 0%.
  • Örgryte2320–26Örgryte: projected 23 points, likely range 20 to 26. Title chance 0%.
  • Halmstads BK1917–22Halmstads BK: projected 19 points, likely range 17 to 22. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Sirius596162646558%
Hammarby585961626436%
Djurgården55565859616%
Häcken50525355560%
Elfsborg47495052530%
Västerås SK45474850510%
Malmö FF41434446470%
AIK40414345470%
IFK Göteborg38394142440%
GAIS37384041430%
Brommapojkarna36373940410%
Mjällby29303234360%
Kalmar FF24262829310%
Degerfors20212324260%
Örgryte20212325260%
Halmstads BK17181920220%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Sirius
  • Hammarby
  • Djurgården
  • Häcken
  • Elfsborg
  • Västerås SK
  • Malmö FF
  • AIK
  • IFK Göteborg
  • GAIS
  • Brommapojkarna
  • Mjällby
  • Kalmar FF
  • Degerfors
  • Örgryte
  • Halmstads BK
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Sirius58%42%0%0%0%
Hammarby36%64%0%0%0%
Djurgården6%94%0%8%0%
Häcken0%78%0%92%0%
Elfsborg0%20%0%100%0%
Västerås SK0%2%0%100%0%
Malmö FF0%0%0%100%0%
AIK0%0%0%100%0%
IFK Göteborg0%0%0%100%0%
GAIS0%0%0%100%0%
Brommapojkarna0%0%0%100%0%
Mjällby0%0%0%100%0%
Kalmar FF0%0%0%85%15%
Degerfors0%0%0%6%94%
Örgryte0%0%0%8%92%
Halmstads BK0%0%0%0%100%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Sirius+52
  • Hammarby+30
  • Häcken-6
  • Elfsborg-6
  • Västerås SK-6
  • Malmö FF-6
How they got here26 matchweeks
Position by matchweekSIRHAMDJUHCKELFVSTMALAIKIFKGAIBROMJLKALDEGRGRHAL

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Sirius1110
Hammarby2290
Djurgården329+3
Häcken427+3
Elfsborg528-2
Västerås SK6512-1
Malmö FF7211+3
AIK8410-4
IFK Göteborg9815+5
GAIS10816+2
Brommapojkarna11612-3
Mjällby12516+4
Kalmar FF1310150
Degerfors14715+1
Örgryte15616-6
Halmstads BK161116-5
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.