Super League 1 · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Panathinaikos are favourites
Ahead of Olympiacos on 20%. The model projects them to finish on 56 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 49.
Title chance
62%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Panathinaikos5649–62Panathinaikos: projected 56 points, likely range 49 to 62. Title chance 62%.
- Olympiacos5144–58Olympiacos: projected 51 points, likely range 44 to 58. Title chance 20%.
- AEK Athens4942–56AEK Athens: projected 49 points, likely range 42 to 56. Title chance 14%.
- PAOK Thessaloniki4538–51PAOK Thessaloniki: projected 45 points, likely range 38 to 51. Title chance 3%.
- OFI Crete4033–47OFI Crete: projected 40 points, likely range 33 to 47. Title chance <1%.
- Aris Thessaloniki3831–45Aris Thessaloniki: projected 38 points, likely range 31 to 45. Title chance <1%.
- Kifisia FC3629–42Kifisia FC: projected 36 points, likely range 29 to 42. Title chance <1%.
- Kalamata3124–38Kalamata: projected 31 points, likely range 24 to 38. Title chance 0%.
- Iraklis3023–37Iraklis: projected 30 points, likely range 23 to 37. Title chance 0%.
- Levadiakos3023–37Levadiakos: projected 30 points, likely range 23 to 37. Title chance 0%.
- Panetolikos2519–32Panetolikos: projected 25 points, likely range 19 to 32. Title chance 0%.
- Atromitos2519–32Atromitos: projected 25 points, likely range 19 to 32. Title chance 0%.
- Asteras Tripolis2418–31Asteras Tripolis: projected 24 points, likely range 18 to 31. Title chance 0%.
- NFC Volos1913–26NFC Volos: projected 19 points, likely range 13 to 26. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 49 | 52 | 56 | 59 | 62 | 62% |
| Olympiacos | 44 | 47 | 51 | 55 | 58 | 20% |
| AEK Athens | 42 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 56 | 14% |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 51 | 3% |
| OFI Crete | 33 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 47 | <1% |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 31 | 34 | 38 | 41 | 45 | <1% |
| Kifisia FC | 29 | 32 | 36 | 39 | 42 | <1% |
| Kalamata | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 0% |
| Iraklis | 23 | 26 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 0% |
| Levadiakos | 23 | 26 | 30 | 34 | 37 | 0% |
| Panetolikos | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 32 | 0% |
| Atromitos | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 32 | 0% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 18 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 0% |
| NFC Volos | 13 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Panathinaikos
- Olympiacos
- AEK Athens
- PAOK Thessaloniki
- OFI Crete
- Aris Thessaloniki
- Kifisia FC
- Kalamata
- Levadiakos
- Iraklis
- Atromitos
- Panetolikos
- Asteras Tripolis
- NFC Volos
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 62% | 37% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Olympiacos | 20% | 74% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| AEK Athens | 14% | 76% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 3% | 62% | 34% | 0% | 1% |
| OFI Crete | 0% | 26% | 67% | 0% | 7% |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 0% | 14% | 72% | 0% | 14% |
| Kifisia FC | 0% | 8% | 69% | 0% | 23% |
| Kalamata | 0% | 2% | 42% | 0% | 57% |
| Levadiakos | 0% | 1% | 36% | 0% | 64% |
| Iraklis | 0% | 1% | 35% | 0% | 64% |
| Atromitos | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 88% |
| Panetolikos | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 90% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 93% |
| NFC Volos | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Panathinaikos+55
- Olympiacos+13
- Kalamata-7
- Iraklis-7
- Panetolikos-7
- Levadiakos-7
How they got here7 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| Olympiacos | 2 | 2 | 7 | +5 |
| AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 4 | 4 | 7 | +2 |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
| OFI Crete | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 |
| Kifisia FC | 7 | 7 | 12 | +3 |
| Kalamata | 8 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Iraklis | 9 | 7 | 14 | +5 |
| Panetolikos | 10 | 2 | 10 | -6 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 11 | 11 | 13 | 0 |
| NFC Volos | 12 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Levadiakos | 13 | 13 | 14 | 0 |
| Atromitos | 14 | 9 | 14 | -5 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.