Super League 1 · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Panathinaikos are favourites
Ahead of AEK Athens on 19%. The model projects them to finish on 49 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 41.
Title chance
53%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Panathinaikos4941–57Panathinaikos: projected 49 points, likely range 41 to 57. Title chance 53%.
- AEK Athens4436–52AEK Athens: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 52. Title chance 19%.
- PAOK Thessaloniki4133–49PAOK Thessaloniki: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 49. Title chance 9%.
- Olympiacos4032–48Olympiacos: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 48. Title chance 6%.
- OFI Crete3932–47OFI Crete: projected 39 points, likely range 32 to 47. Title chance 5%.
- Panetolikos3932–47Panetolikos: projected 39 points, likely range 32 to 47. Title chance 5%.
- Aris Thessaloniki3325–41Aris Thessaloniki: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance <1%.
- Iraklis3326–41Iraklis: projected 33 points, likely range 26 to 41. Title chance <1%.
- Kalamata3326–41Kalamata: projected 33 points, likely range 26 to 41. Title chance <1%.
- Atromitos3224–40Atromitos: projected 32 points, likely range 24 to 40. Title chance <1%.
- Kifisia FC3123–39Kifisia FC: projected 31 points, likely range 23 to 39. Title chance <1%.
- NFC Volos2922–37NFC Volos: projected 29 points, likely range 22 to 37. Title chance <1%.
- Asteras Tripolis2720–35Asteras Tripolis: projected 27 points, likely range 20 to 35. Title chance 0%.
- Levadiakos2720–35Levadiakos: projected 27 points, likely range 20 to 35. Title chance <1%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 53% |
| AEK Athens | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 19% |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 33 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 9% |
| Olympiacos | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 6% |
| OFI Crete | 32 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 47 | 5% |
| Panetolikos | 32 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 47 | 5% |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 25 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | <1% |
| Iraklis | 26 | 30 | 33 | 38 | 41 | <1% |
| Kalamata | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | <1% |
| Atromitos | 24 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | <1% |
| Kifisia FC | 23 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 39 | <1% |
| NFC Volos | 22 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 37 | <1% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 20 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 0% |
| Levadiakos | 20 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 35 | <1% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Panathinaikos
- AEK Athens
- PAOK Thessaloniki
- Olympiacos
- OFI Crete
- Panetolikos
- Iraklis
- Kalamata
- Aris Thessaloniki
- Atromitos
- Kifisia FC
- NFC Volos
- Asteras Tripolis
- Levadiakos
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 53% | 39% | 8% | 0% | 1% |
| AEK Athens | 19% | 54% | 23% | 0% | 4% |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 9% | 45% | 35% | 0% | 11% |
| Olympiacos | 6% | 39% | 40% | 0% | 15% |
| OFI Crete | 5% | 36% | 42% | 0% | 16% |
| Panetolikos | 5% | 36% | 41% | 0% | 17% |
| Iraklis | 1% | 11% | 37% | 0% | 51% |
| Kalamata | 1% | 11% | 37% | 0% | 51% |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 0% | 9% | 33% | 0% | 58% |
| Atromitos | 1% | 7% | 31% | 0% | 61% |
| Kifisia FC | 0% | 5% | 27% | 0% | 67% |
| NFC Volos | 0% | 3% | 20% | 0% | 77% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0% | 2% | 13% | 0% | 86% |
| Levadiakos | 0% | 1% | 13% | 0% | 86% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Panathinaikos+46
- AEK Athens+12
- Asteras Tripolis-7
- Levadiakos-7
- NFC Volos-7
- Kifisia FC-7
How they got here4 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| OFI Crete | 3 | 3 | 7 | +2 |
| Panetolikos | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| AEK Athens | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 |
| Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | 7 | +1 |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 7 | 4 | 7 | -1 |
| Iraklis | 8 | 8 | 14 | +6 |
| Kalamata | 9 | 8 | 12 | -1 |
| Atromitos | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 |
| NFC Volos | 11 | 9 | 12 | +1 |
| Kifisia FC | 12 | 8 | 12 | -2 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 13 | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| Levadiakos | 14 | 13 | 14 | -1 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.