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Live2015–2016

Premier League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Arsenal are favourites

Ahead of Manchester City on 27%. The model projects them to finish on 79 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 71.

Title chance

61%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Arsenal7971–88Arsenal: projected 79 points, likely range 71 to 88. Title chance 61%.
  • Man City7466–83Manchester City: projected 74 points, likely range 66 to 83. Title chance 27%.
  • Brighton6960–77Brighton & Hove Albion: projected 69 points, likely range 60 to 77. Title chance 7%.
  • Chelsea6455–73Chelsea: projected 64 points, likely range 55 to 73. Title chance 2%.
  • Bournemouth6354–72AFC Bournemouth: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 72. Title chance 2%.
  • Liverpool6152–69Liverpool: projected 61 points, likely range 52 to 69. Title chance <1%.
  • Brentford5546–64Brentford: projected 55 points, likely range 46 to 64. Title chance <1%.
  • Tottenham5445–63Tottenham Hotspur: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance <1%.
  • Newcastle5142–60Newcastle United: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance <1%.
  • Leeds5042–59Leeds United: projected 50 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • Aston Villa4941–58Aston Villa: projected 49 points, likely range 41 to 58. Title chance 0%.
  • Fulham4940–58Fulham: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 58. Title chance <1%.
  • Nottm Forest4637–55Nottingham Forest: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
  • Man United4436–53Manchester United: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 53. Title chance 0%.
  • Everton4234–51Everton: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Hull4133–49Hull City: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 49. Title chance 0%.
  • Ipswich4032–48Ipswich Town: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Coventry3830–47Coventry City: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 47. Title chance 0%.
  • Crystal Palace3729–45Crystal Palace: projected 37 points, likely range 29 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Sunderland3527–44Sunderland: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 44. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Arsenal717579848861%
Manchester City667074798327%
Brighton & Hove Albion60646973777%
Chelsea55596469732%
AFC Bournemouth54596368722%
Liverpool5256616569<1%
Brentford4650556064<1%
Tottenham Hotspur4550545963<1%
Newcastle United4246515660<1%
Leeds United4246505559<1%
Aston Villa41454954580%
Fulham4044495458<1%
Nottingham Forest37414650550%
Manchester United36404449530%
Everton34384246510%
Hull City33364145490%
Ipswich Town32354044480%
Coventry City30343843470%
Crystal Palace29333741450%
Sunderland27313540440%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Arsenal
  • Man City
  • Brighton
  • Chelsea
  • Bournemouth
  • Liverpool
  • Brentford
  • Tottenham
  • Newcastle
  • Leeds
  • Aston Villa
  • Fulham
  • Nottm Forest
  • Man United
  • Everton
  • Hull
  • Ipswich
  • Coventry
  • Crystal Palace
  • Sunderland
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Arsenal61%37%1%1%0%
Manchester City27%65%4%4%0%
Brighton & Hove Albion7%66%11%15%0%
Chelsea2%44%19%35%0%
AFC Bournemouth2%40%20%39%0%
Liverpool1%25%16%58%0%
Brentford0%8%9%82%1%
Tottenham Hotspur0%6%7%86%1%
Newcastle United0%2%4%91%3%
Leeds United0%2%3%92%3%
Aston Villa0%1%2%92%4%
Fulham0%1%2%92%4%
Nottingham Forest0%0%1%88%11%
Manchester United0%0%1%84%15%
Everton0%0%0%76%24%
Hull City0%0%0%69%30%
Ipswich Town0%0%0%63%37%
Coventry City0%0%0%53%47%
Crystal Palace0%0%0%44%56%
Sunderland0%0%0%36%64%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Arsenal+56
  • Man City+22
  • Aston Villa-5
  • Hull-5
  • Ipswich-5
  • Everton-5
How they got here8 matchweeks
Position by matchweekMCIARSBHALIVCHEBRELEENEWAVLHULEVEIPSAFCTOTFULMUNCRYNFOCOVSUN

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Manchester City117+6
Arsenal2120
Brighton & Hove Albion3110-2
Liverpool4413+7
Chelsea5410+1
Brentford637-3
Leeds United739+2
Newcastle United8612+2
Aston Villa9920+11
Hull City10310-6
Everton11511-6
Ipswich Town12814-4
AFC Bournemouth131318+1
Tottenham Hotspur141420+4
Fulham151220-3
Manchester United1610160
Crystal Palace1712180
Nottingham Forest181119-3
Coventry City1914200
Sunderland201120-7
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.