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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Liverpool are favourites

Ahead of Paris Saint-Germain on 28%. The model projects them to finish on 21 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 17.

Title chance

37%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Liverpool2117–24Liverpool: projected 21 points, likely range 17 to 24. Title chance 37%.
  • PSG1916–24Paris Saint-Germain: projected 19 points, likely range 16 to 24. Title chance 28%.
  • Arsenal1916–22Arsenal: projected 19 points, likely range 16 to 22. Title chance 17%.
  • Real Madrid1815–21Real Madrid: projected 18 points, likely range 15 to 21. Title chance 11%.
  • Bayern München1714–20Bayern München: projected 17 points, likely range 14 to 20. Title chance 2%.
  • Aston Villa1511–19Aston Villa: projected 15 points, likely range 11 to 19. Title chance 2%.
  • Barcelona1511–19Barcelona: projected 15 points, likely range 11 to 19. Title chance 1%.
  • Man City1512–19Manchester City: projected 15 points, likely range 12 to 19. Title chance <1%.
  • Sporting CP1511–18Sporting CP: projected 15 points, likely range 11 to 18. Title chance <1%.
  • Real Betis1410–17Real Betis: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 17. Title chance <1%.
  • VfB Stuttgart1410–17VfB Stuttgart: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 17. Title chance <1%.
  • Dortmund1410–18Borussia Dortmund: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance <1%.
  • Como128–16Como: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Club Brugge129–16Club Brugge: projected 12 points, likely range 9 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Atlético Madrid128–16Atlético Madrid: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Inter128–16Inter: projected 12 points, likely range 8 to 16. Title chance 0%.
  • PSV Eindhoven117–14PSV Eindhoven: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Roma107–14Roma: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk107–14Shakhtar Donetsk: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 14. Title chance 0%.
  • Villarreal106–13Villarreal: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Napoli106–13Napoli: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Galatasaray106–13Galatasaray: projected 10 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Bodø/Glimt107–15Bodø/Glimt: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance 0%.
  • LASK96–13LASK: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Feyenoord96–13Feyenoord: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • RB Leipzig96–13RB Leipzig: projected 9 points, likely range 6 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Man United85–12Manchester United: projected 8 points, likely range 5 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Lens84–12Lens: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • AEK Athens84–12AEK Athens: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Sabah FK74–11Sabah FK: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 11. Title chance 0%.
  • Fenerbahçe73–11Fenerbahçe: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 11. Title chance 0%.
  • Viking73–11Viking: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 11. Title chance 0%.
  • FC Porto62–10FC Porto: projected 6 points, likely range 2 to 10. Title chance 0%.
  • Slavia Prague52–8Slavia Prague: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 8. Title chance 0%.
  • Lille52–9Lille: projected 5 points, likely range 2 to 9. Title chance 0%.
  • Slovan Bratislava51–9Slovan Bratislava: projected 5 points, likely range 1 to 9. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Liverpool171921222437%
Paris Saint-Germain161819222428%
Arsenal161719202217%
Real Madrid151618212111%
Bayern München14151718202%
Aston Villa11131517192%
Barcelona11131517191%
Manchester City1213151819<1%
Sporting CP1113151618<1%
Real Betis1012141617<1%
VfB Stuttgart1011141617<1%
Borussia Dortmund1012141618<1%
Como810121416<1%
Club Brugge910121416<1%
Atlético Madrid810121416<1%
Inter8101214160%
PSV Eindhoven79111314<1%
Roma78101214<1%
Shakhtar Donetsk781012140%
Villarreal671012130%
Napoli671012130%
Galatasaray671012130%
Bodø/Glimt791013150%
LASK67912130%
Feyenoord67911130%
RB Leipzig67911130%
Manchester United56810120%
Lens46810120%
AEK Athens46810120%
Sabah FK46710110%
Fenerbahçe3579110%
Viking3579110%
FC Porto2467100%
Slavia Prague245780%
Lille235790%
Slovan Bratislava135790%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Liverpool
  • PSG
  • Arsenal
  • Real Madrid
  • Bayern München
  • Man City
  • Barcelona
  • Aston Villa
  • Sporting CP
  • Dortmund
  • VfB Stuttgart
  • Real Betis
  • Atlético Madrid
  • Como
  • Club Brugge
  • Inter
  • PSV Eindhoven
  • Roma
  • Shakhtar Donetsk
  • Bodø/Glimt
  • Villarreal
  • Napoli
  • Galatasaray
  • LASK
  • Feyenoord
  • RB Leipzig
  • Man United
  • AEK Athens
  • Lens
  • Sabah FK
  • Viking
  • Fenerbahçe
  • FC Porto
  • Slavia Prague
  • Lille
  • Slovan Bratislava
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Liverpool37%48%0%100%0%
Paris Saint-Germain28%47%0%100%0%
Arsenal17%50%0%100%0%
Real Madrid11%42%0%100%0%
Bayern München2%35%0%100%0%
Manchester City1%16%0%100%0%
Barcelona1%15%0%100%0%
Aston Villa2%12%0%100%0%
Sporting CP0%10%0%100%0%
Borussia Dortmund0%5%0%100%0%
VfB Stuttgart0%5%0%100%0%
Real Betis0%4%0%100%0%
Atlético Madrid0%2%0%100%0%
Como0%2%0%100%0%
Club Brugge0%2%0%100%0%
Inter0%1%0%100%0%
PSV Eindhoven0%1%0%100%0%
Roma0%0%0%100%0%
Shakhtar Donetsk0%0%0%100%0%
Bodø/Glimt0%0%0%100%0%
Villarreal0%0%0%100%0%
Napoli0%0%0%100%0%
Galatasaray0%0%0%100%0%
LASK0%0%0%100%0%
Feyenoord0%0%0%100%0%
RB Leipzig0%0%0%100%0%
Manchester United0%0%0%100%0%
AEK Athens0%0%0%100%0%
Lens0%0%0%100%0%
Sabah FK0%0%0%100%0%
Viking0%0%0%100%0%
Fenerbahçe0%0%0%100%0%
FC Porto0%0%0%100%0%
Slavia Prague0%0%0%100%0%
Lille0%0%0%100%0%
Slovan Bratislava0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Liverpool+34
  • PSG+25
  • Arsenal+14
  • Real Madrid+8
  • Shakhtar Donetsk-3
  • Villarreal-3
How they got here3 matchweeks
Position by matchweekPSGAVLLIVRMABETSTUARSBARCOMMCICLUSCPDORBAYROMATMSHKPSVVILMUNINTNAPGALLASSABFEYRCLBODRBLAEKFENSLAVIKFCPLILSLO

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Paris Saint-Germain1110
Aston Villa229+7
Liverpool3314+11
Real Madrid4413+9
Real Betis5511+6
VfB Stuttgart6460
Arsenal7715+8
Barcelona828-5
Como9512-4
Manchester City10817-2
Club Brugge111123+12
Sporting CP12612-5
Borussia Dortmund131218-1
Bayern München14214-12
Roma151525+2
Atlético Madrid161526+10
Shakhtar Donetsk171118+1
PSV Eindhoven181826+1
Villarreal191421+2
Manchester United20420-16
Inter212129+4
Napoli222232+5
Galatasaray232335+7
LASK242433+4
Sabah FK252234+9
Feyenoord262333+7
Lens271027-17
Bodø/Glimt282436+8
RB Leipzig292132+3
AEK Athens301630-14
Fenerbahçe312031-11
Slavia Prague322232-10
Viking332733-4
FC Porto343034-3
Lille352435-11
Slovan Bratislava363536-1
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.