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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Arsenal are favourites

Ahead of Liverpool on 22%. The model projects them to finish on 20 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 16.

Title chance

32%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Arsenal2016–24Arsenal: projected 20 points, likely range 16 to 24. Title chance 32%.
  • Bayern München1915–22Bayern München: projected 19 points, likely range 15 to 22. Title chance 20%.
  • Liverpool1916–24Liverpool: projected 19 points, likely range 16 to 24. Title chance 22%.
  • PSG1813–22Paris Saint-Germain: projected 18 points, likely range 13 to 22. Title chance 10%.
  • Man City1612–21Manchester City: projected 16 points, likely range 12 to 21. Title chance 4%.
  • Real Madrid1612–21Real Madrid: projected 16 points, likely range 12 to 21. Title chance 5%.
  • Barcelona1510–19Barcelona: projected 15 points, likely range 10 to 19. Title chance 2%.
  • Sporting CP1511–19Sporting CP: projected 15 points, likely range 11 to 19. Title chance 2%.
  • Dortmund1410–18Borussia Dortmund: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance 1%.
  • Inter1410–18Inter: projected 14 points, likely range 10 to 18. Title chance <1%.
  • VfB Stuttgart127–16VfB Stuttgart: projected 12 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Aston Villa127–16Aston Villa: projected 12 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Atlético Madrid127–16Atlético Madrid: projected 12 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Man United117–16Manchester United: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Como117–16Como: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 16. Title chance <1%.
  • Lens117–15Lens: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Real Betis117–15Real Betis: projected 11 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • PSV Eindhoven116–15PSV Eindhoven: projected 11 points, likely range 6 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • AEK Athens107–15AEK Athens: projected 10 points, likely range 7 to 15. Title chance <1%.
  • Fenerbahçe105–14Fenerbahçe: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Galatasaray105–14Galatasaray: projected 10 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance <1%.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk95–14Shakhtar Donetsk: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance 0%.
  • Napoli95–13Napoli: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Bodø/Glimt95–14Bodø/Glimt: projected 9 points, likely range 5 to 14. Title chance 0%.
  • Roma84–13Roma: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • Villarreal84–12Villarreal: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Club Brugge84–12Club Brugge: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance <1%.
  • Viking84–12Viking: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • FC Porto84–13FC Porto: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance <1%.
  • RB Leipzig84–12RB Leipzig: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Feyenoord84–13Feyenoord: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Slovan Bratislava84–13Slovan Bratislava: projected 8 points, likely range 4 to 13. Title chance 0%.
  • Lille73–11Lille: projected 7 points, likely range 3 to 11. Title chance 0%.
  • LASK74–12LASK: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Sabah FK74–12Sabah FK: projected 7 points, likely range 4 to 12. Title chance 0%.
  • Slavia Prague62–10Slavia Prague: projected 6 points, likely range 2 to 10. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Arsenal161820222432%
Bayern München151719212220%
Liverpool161819212422%
Paris Saint-Germain131518192210%
Manchester City12141619214%
Real Madrid12141619215%
Barcelona10131517192%
Sporting CP11131517192%
Borussia Dortmund10121416181%
Inter1012141618<1%
VfB Stuttgart79121416<1%
Aston Villa79121416<1%
Atlético Madrid79121416<1%
Manchester United79111416<1%
Como79111316<1%
Lens79111315<1%
Real Betis79111315<1%
PSV Eindhoven68111315<1%
AEK Athens78101315<1%
Fenerbahçe57101214<1%
Galatasaray57101214<1%
Shakhtar Donetsk57911140%
Napoli57911130%
Bodø/Glimt57912140%
Roma4681113<1%
Villarreal46810120%
Club Brugge4681012<1%
Viking46810120%
FC Porto4681013<1%
RB Leipzig45810120%
Feyenoord46811130%
Slovan Bratislava46810130%
Lille3579110%
LASK45710120%
Sabah FK45710120%
Slavia Prague2468100%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Arsenal
  • Liverpool
  • Bayern München
  • PSG
  • Real Madrid
  • Man City
  • Sporting CP
  • Barcelona
  • Inter
  • Dortmund
  • Atlético Madrid
  • Man United
  • VfB Stuttgart
  • Aston Villa
  • Como
  • PSV Eindhoven
  • Lens
  • Real Betis
  • AEK Athens
  • Galatasaray
  • Fenerbahçe
  • Shakhtar Donetsk
  • Napoli
  • Bodø/Glimt
  • Roma
  • Feyenoord
  • FC Porto
  • Club Brugge
  • Viking
  • Slovan Bratislava
  • Villarreal
  • RB Leipzig
  • LASK
  • Sabah FK
  • Lille
  • Slavia Prague
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Arsenal32%45%0%100%0%
Liverpool22%49%0%100%0%
Bayern München20%44%0%100%0%
Paris Saint-Germain10%36%0%100%0%
Real Madrid5%25%0%100%0%
Manchester City4%26%0%100%0%
Sporting CP2%16%0%100%0%
Barcelona2%17%0%100%0%
Inter1%10%0%100%0%
Borussia Dortmund1%10%0%100%0%
Atlético Madrid0%3%0%100%0%
Manchester United0%3%0%100%0%
VfB Stuttgart0%3%0%100%0%
Aston Villa0%3%0%100%0%
Como0%2%0%100%0%
PSV Eindhoven0%2%0%100%0%
Lens0%1%0%100%0%
Real Betis0%1%0%100%0%
AEK Athens0%1%0%100%0%
Galatasaray0%1%0%100%0%
Fenerbahçe0%1%0%100%0%
Shakhtar Donetsk0%0%0%100%0%
Napoli0%0%0%100%0%
Bodø/Glimt0%1%0%100%0%
Roma0%0%0%100%0%
Feyenoord0%0%0%100%0%
FC Porto0%0%0%100%0%
Club Brugge0%0%0%100%0%
Viking0%0%0%100%0%
Slovan Bratislava0%0%0%100%0%
Villarreal0%0%0%100%0%
RB Leipzig0%0%0%100%0%
LASK0%0%0%100%0%
Sabah FK0%0%0%100%0%
Lille0%0%0%100%0%
Slavia Prague0%0%0%100%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Arsenal+29
  • Liverpool+19
  • Bayern München+17
  • PSG+7
  • Shakhtar Donetsk-3
  • Villarreal-3
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.