Primera División · 2026/2027 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons

Inter Santa Tecla are favourites

Ahead of Isidro Metapan on 22%. The model projects them to finish on 39 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 33.

Title chance

34%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Inter Santa Tecla3933–45Inter Santa Tecla: projected 39 points, likely range 33 to 45. Title chance 34%.
Isidro Metapan3732–43Isidro Metapan: projected 37 points, likely range 32 to 43. Title chance 22%.
CD FAS3731–42CD FAS: projected 37 points, likely range 31 to 42. Title chance 18%.
Municipal Limeno3630–41Municipal Limeno: projected 36 points, likely range 30 to 41. Title chance 12%.
Firpo3529–41Firpo: projected 35 points, likely range 29 to 41. Title chance 12%.
Atletico Balboa2822–33Atletico Balboa: projected 28 points, likely range 22 to 33. Title chance <1%.
Alianza FC2822–34Alianza FC: projected 28 points, likely range 22 to 34. Title chance <1%.
CD Platense Municipal2722–33CD Platense Municipal: projected 27 points, likely range 22 to 33. Title chance <1%.
CD Águila2721–33CD Águila: projected 27 points, likely range 21 to 33. Title chance <1%.
CD Cacahuatique2115–27CD Cacahuatique: projected 21 points, likely range 15 to 27. Title chance 0%.
Inca Aruba2015–25Inca Aruba: projected 20 points, likely range 15 to 25. Title chance 0%.
Fuerte San Francisco1914–25Fuerte San Francisco: projected 19 points, likely range 14 to 25. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Inter Santa Tecla	33	36	39	42	45	34%
Isidro Metapan	32	35	37	40	43	22%
CD FAS	31	34	37	40	42	18%
Municipal Limeno	30	33	36	39	41	12%
Firpo	29	32	35	38	41	12%
Atletico Balboa	22	25	28	31	33	<1%
Alianza FC	22	25	28	32	34	<1%
CD Platense Municipal	22	24	27	30	33	<1%
CD Águila	21	24	27	30	33	<1%
CD Cacahuatique	15	18	21	24	27	0%
Inca Aruba	15	17	20	22	25	0%
Fuerte San Francisco	14	16	19	22	25	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Inter Santa Tecla
Isidro Metapan
CD FAS
Municipal Limeno
Firpo
Alianza FC
Atletico Balboa
CD Águila
CD Platense Municipal
CD Cacahuatique
Inca Aruba
Fuerte San Francisco

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Inter Santa Tecla	34%	52%	0%	100%	0%
Isidro Metapan	22%	56%	0%	100%	0%
CD FAS	18%	57%	0%	100%	0%
Municipal Limeno	12%	52%	0%	100%	0%
Firpo	12%	49%	0%	100%	0%
Alianza FC	1%	12%	0%	99%	1%
Atletico Balboa	0%	7%	0%	99%	1%
CD Águila	0%	7%	0%	98%	2%
CD Platense Municipal	0%	6%	0%	99%	1%
CD Cacahuatique	0%	0%	0%	78%	22%
Inca Aruba	0%	0%	0%	64%	36%
Fuerte San Francisco	0%	0%	0%	64%	36%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Inter Santa Tecla+26
Isidro Metapan+14
CD FAS+10
Inca Aruba-8
CD Cacahuatique-8
Fuerte San Francisco-8

How they got here7 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
CD FAS	1	1	6	+2
Inter Santa Tecla	2	1	9	+7
Firpo	3	2	7	+4
Municipal Limeno	4	4	11	+7
Isidro Metapan	5	1	5	-4
CD Platense Municipal	6	2	7	-2
Alianza FC	7	2	10	-5
Atletico Balboa	8	6	10	0
CD Águila	9	6	11	-3
CD Cacahuatique	10	4	10	0
Fuerte San Francisco	11	5	11	-6
Inca Aruba	12	12	12	0

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.