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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · 2026/2027 - Apertura · 8,000 simulated seasons

Firpo are favourites

Ahead of CD FAS on 18%. The model projects them to finish on 42 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 38.

Title chance

71%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Firpo4238–46Firpo: projected 42 points, likely range 38 to 46. Title chance 71%.
  • CD FAS3936–42CD FAS: projected 39 points, likely range 36 to 42. Title chance 18%.
  • Isidro Metapan3733–40Isidro Metapan: projected 37 points, likely range 33 to 40. Title chance 5%.
  • CD Águila3733–40CD Águila: projected 37 points, likely range 33 to 40. Title chance 5%.
  • Inter Santa Tecla3330–36Inter Santa Tecla: projected 33 points, likely range 30 to 36. Title chance <1%.
  • CD Platense Municipal3026–33CD Platense Municipal: projected 30 points, likely range 26 to 33. Title chance 0%.
  • Alianza FC2926–33Alianza FC: projected 29 points, likely range 26 to 33. Title chance <1%.
  • Municipal Limeno2825–32Municipal Limeno: projected 28 points, likely range 25 to 32. Title chance 0%.
  • Atletico Balboa2522–29Atletico Balboa: projected 25 points, likely range 22 to 29. Title chance 0%.
  • Inca Aruba2017–23Inca Aruba: projected 20 points, likely range 17 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • CD Cacahuatique1917–23CD Cacahuatique: projected 19 points, likely range 17 to 23. Title chance 0%.
  • Fuerte San Francisco1613–19Fuerte San Francisco: projected 16 points, likely range 13 to 19. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Firpo384042444671%
CD FAS363739414218%
Isidro Metapan33353738405%
CD Águila33353739405%
Inter Santa Tecla3031333436<1%
CD Platense Municipal26283031330%
Alianza FC2627293133<1%
Municipal Limeno25262830320%
Atletico Balboa22232527290%
Inca Aruba17182021230%
CD Cacahuatique17171921230%
Fuerte San Francisco13151618190%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Firpo
  • CD FAS
  • CD Águila
  • Isidro Metapan
  • Inter Santa Tecla
  • CD Platense Municipal
  • Alianza FC
  • Municipal Limeno
  • Atletico Balboa
  • CD Cacahuatique
  • Inca Aruba
  • Fuerte San Francisco
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Firpo71%28%0%100%0%
CD FAS18%79%0%100%0%
CD Águila5%83%0%100%0%
Isidro Metapan5%76%0%100%0%
Inter Santa Tecla0%26%0%100%0%
CD Platense Municipal0%4%0%100%0%
Alianza FC0%4%0%100%0%
Municipal Limeno0%1%0%100%0%
Atletico Balboa0%0%0%100%0%
CD Cacahuatique0%0%0%89%11%
Inca Aruba0%0%0%83%17%
Fuerte San Francisco0%0%0%28%72%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Firpo+63
  • CD FAS+10
  • CD Platense Municipal-8
  • Municipal Limeno-8
  • Atletico Balboa-8
  • CD Cacahuatique-8
How they got here17 matchweeks
Position by matchweekFIRCDFISICDGINTCDPALIMUNATLCDCINCFUE

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Firpo117+6
CD FAS216+1
Isidro Metapan315-2
CD Águila4411+2
Inter Santa Tecla519+4
CD Platense Municipal629-2
Alianza FC7210-5
Municipal Limeno8411+3
Atletico Balboa9610-1
CD Cacahuatique104120
Inca Aruba11812+1
Fuerte San Francisco12512-7
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.