Liga Portugal · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Benfica are favourites
Ahead of Sporting CP on 32%. The model projects them to finish on 77 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 69.
Title chance
35%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- FC Porto7769–85FC Porto: projected 77 points, likely range 69 to 85. Title chance 32%.
- Benfica7769–84Benfica: projected 77 points, likely range 69 to 84. Title chance 35%.
- Sporting CP7770–84Sporting CP: projected 77 points, likely range 70 to 84. Title chance 32%.
- Santa Clara5950–67Santa Clara: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 67. Title chance <1%.
- Braga5950–67Braga: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 67. Title chance <1%.
- Gil Vicente4840–57Gil Vicente: projected 48 points, likely range 40 to 57. Title chance <1%.
- Estrela da Amadora4739–56Estrela da Amadora: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance 0%.
- Arouca4536–53Arouca: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 53. Title chance 0%.
- Famalicão4536–53Famalicão: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 53. Title chance 0%.
- Vitória de Guimarães4234–51Vitória de Guimarães: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
- Académico Viseu3830–47Académico Viseu: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 47. Title chance 0%.
- Alverca3829–46Alverca: projected 38 points, likely range 29 to 46. Title chance 0%.
- Marítimo3528–43Marítimo: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
- Moreirense3527–43Moreirense: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 0%.
- Nacional3426–42Nacional: projected 34 points, likely range 26 to 42. Title chance 0%.
- Estoril3325–41Estoril: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 0%.
- Rio Ave3023–39Rio Ave: projected 30 points, likely range 23 to 39. Title chance 0%.
- Casa Pia AC2417–32Casa Pia AC: projected 24 points, likely range 17 to 32. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 69 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 32% |
| Benfica | 69 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 84 | 35% |
| Sporting CP | 70 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 84 | 32% |
| Santa Clara | 50 | 54 | 59 | 63 | 67 | <1% |
| Braga | 50 | 54 | 59 | 63 | 67 | <1% |
| Gil Vicente | 40 | 44 | 48 | 53 | 57 | <1% |
| Estrela da Amadora | 39 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 56 | 0% |
| Arouca | 36 | 40 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 0% |
| Famalicão | 36 | 40 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 0% |
| Vitória de Guimarães | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 51 | 0% |
| Académico Viseu | 30 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 0% |
| Alverca | 29 | 33 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 0% |
| Marítimo | 28 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 0% |
| Moreirense | 27 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 0% |
| Nacional | 26 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 0% |
| Estoril | 25 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 0% |
| Rio Ave | 23 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 0% |
| Casa Pia AC | 17 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Benfica
- Sporting CP
- FC Porto
- Santa Clara
- Braga
- Gil Vicente
- Estrela da Amadora
- Famalicão
- Arouca
- Vitória de Guimarães
- Académico Viseu
- Alverca
- Marítimo
- Moreirense
- Nacional
- Estoril
- Rio Ave
- Casa Pia AC
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 35% | 64% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sporting CP | 32% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Porto | 32% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Santa Clara | 0% | 44% | 32% | 24% | 0% |
| Braga | 0% | 45% | 32% | 23% | 0% |
| Gil Vicente | 0% | 5% | 11% | 84% | 1% |
| Estrela da Amadora | 0% | 3% | 9% | 87% | 1% |
| Famalicão | 0% | 2% | 5% | 91% | 2% |
| Arouca | 0% | 1% | 5% | 92% | 2% |
| Vitória de Guimarães | 0% | 1% | 2% | 93% | 4% |
| Académico Viseu | 0% | 0% | 1% | 86% | 13% |
| Alverca | 0% | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% |
| Marítimo | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 24% |
| Moreirense | 0% | 0% | 0% | 74% | 26% |
| Nacional | 0% | 0% | 0% | 69% | 31% |
| Estoril | 0% | 0% | 0% | 62% | 38% |
| Rio Ave | 0% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| Casa Pia AC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 88% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Benfica+30
- Sporting CP+27
- FC Porto+27
- Arouca-6
- Estrela da Amadora-6
- Académico Viseu-6
How they got here5 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Benfica | 2 | 2 | 12 | +10 |
| Sporting CP | 3 | 3 | 11 | +8 |
| Santa Clara | 4 | 4 | 8 | +4 |
| Arouca | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 |
| Estrela da Amadora | 6 | 5 | 8 | +1 |
| Braga | 7 | 6 | 13 | -1 |
| Académico Viseu | 8 | 8 | 15 | +1 |
| Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 9 | -5 |
| Marítimo | 10 | 2 | 10 | -8 |
| Moreirense | 11 | 10 | 17 | -1 |
| Alverca | 12 | 12 | 18 | +6 |
| Famalicão | 13 | 13 | 14 | 0 |
| Vitória de Guimarães | 14 | 10 | 17 | +3 |
| Nacional | 15 | 5 | 15 | -10 |
| Rio Ave | 16 | 11 | 16 | 0 |
| Estoril | 17 | 14 | 17 | -3 |
| Casa Pia AC | 18 | 15 | 18 | -3 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.