Liga Portugal · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
FC Porto are favourites
Ahead of Sporting CP on 11%. The model projects them to finish on 83 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 76.
Title chance
84%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- FC Porto8376–90FC Porto: projected 83 points, likely range 76 to 90. Title chance 84%.
- Sporting CP7366–80Sporting CP: projected 73 points, likely range 66 to 80. Title chance 11%.
- Benfica7163–78Benfica: projected 71 points, likely range 63 to 78. Title chance 5%.
- Arouca5648–64Arouca: projected 56 points, likely range 48 to 64. Title chance <1%.
- Braga5547–63Braga: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 63. Title chance 0%.
- Santa Clara5244–60Santa Clara: projected 52 points, likely range 44 to 60. Title chance 0%.
- Gil Vicente5042–58Gil Vicente: projected 50 points, likely range 42 to 58. Title chance 0%.
- Académico Viseu4739–54Académico Viseu: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 54. Title chance 0%.
- Alverca4739–55Alverca: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 55. Title chance 0%.
- Vitória de Guimarães4537–53Vitória de Guimarães: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 53. Title chance 0%.
- Moreirense4235–50Moreirense: projected 42 points, likely range 35 to 50. Title chance 0%.
- Famalicão4134–49Famalicão: projected 41 points, likely range 34 to 49. Title chance 0%.
- Estrela da Amadora3931–47Estrela da Amadora: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 47. Title chance 0%.
- Marítimo3427–42Marítimo: projected 34 points, likely range 27 to 42. Title chance 0%.
- Nacional3124–39Nacional: projected 31 points, likely range 24 to 39. Title chance 0%.
- Rio Ave3023–38Rio Ave: projected 30 points, likely range 23 to 38. Title chance 0%.
- Casa Pia AC2620–33Casa Pia AC: projected 26 points, likely range 20 to 33. Title chance 0%.
- Estoril2417–32Estoril: projected 24 points, likely range 17 to 32. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 76 | 79 | 83 | 87 | 90 | 84% |
| Sporting CP | 66 | 70 | 73 | 77 | 80 | 11% |
| Benfica | 63 | 66 | 71 | 75 | 78 | 5% |
| Arouca | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | <1% |
| Braga | 47 | 51 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 0% |
| Santa Clara | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 0% |
| Gil Vicente | 42 | 45 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 0% |
| Académico Viseu | 39 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 0% |
| Alverca | 39 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 55 | 0% |
| Vitória de Guimarães | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 | 53 | 0% |
| Moreirense | 35 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 50 | 0% |
| Famalicão | 34 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 0% |
| Estrela da Amadora | 31 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 0% |
| Marítimo | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 0% |
| Nacional | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 0% |
| Rio Ave | 23 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 0% |
| Casa Pia AC | 20 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 33 | 0% |
| Estoril | 17 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- FC Porto
- Sporting CP
- Benfica
- Arouca
- Braga
- Santa Clara
- Gil Vicente
- Alverca
- Académico Viseu
- Vitória de Guimarães
- Moreirense
- Famalicão
- Estrela da Amadora
- Marítimo
- Nacional
- Rio Ave
- Casa Pia AC
- Estoril
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 84% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sporting CP | 11% | 88% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Benfica | 5% | 92% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Arouca | 0% | 37% | 23% | 40% | 0% |
| Braga | 0% | 31% | 23% | 46% | 0% |
| Santa Clara | 0% | 15% | 17% | 68% | 0% |
| Gil Vicente | 0% | 8% | 12% | 79% | 0% |
| Alverca | 0% | 4% | 7% | 89% | 0% |
| Académico Viseu | 0% | 3% | 6% | 91% | 0% |
| Vitória de Guimarães | 0% | 3% | 5% | 91% | 1% |
| Moreirense | 0% | 1% | 2% | 95% | 2% |
| Famalicão | 0% | 1% | 1% | 95% | 3% |
| Estrela da Amadora | 0% | 0% | 1% | 93% | 7% |
| Marítimo | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 25% |
| Nacional | 0% | 0% | 0% | 56% | 44% |
| Rio Ave | 0% | 0% | 0% | 49% | 51% |
| Casa Pia AC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 80% |
| Estoril | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 86% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- FC Porto+78
- Santa Clara-6
- Académico Viseu-6
- Braga-6
- Gil Vicente-6
- Moreirense-6
How they got here9 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Benfica | 2 | 2 | 12 | +10 |
| Sporting CP | 3 | 3 | 11 | +8 |
| Santa Clara | 4 | 4 | 8 | +4 |
| Arouca | 5 | 1 | 7 | -2 |
| Académico Viseu | 6 | 6 | 15 | +3 |
| Gil Vicente | 7 | 2 | 8 | -3 |
| Alverca | 8 | 8 | 18 | +10 |
| Braga | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 |
| Moreirense | 10 | 10 | 17 | 0 |
| Famalicão | 11 | 11 | 14 | +2 |
| Estrela da Amadora | 12 | 6 | 12 | -5 |
| Vitória de Guimarães | 13 | 10 | 17 | +4 |
| Marítimo | 14 | 2 | 14 | -12 |
| Nacional | 15 | 5 | 16 | -10 |
| Casa Pia AC | 16 | 15 | 18 | -1 |
| Rio Ave | 17 | 11 | 17 | -1 |
| Estoril | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.