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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

A-League Men · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Auckland FC are favourites

Ahead of Newcastle Jets on 22%. The model projects them to finish on 43 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 34.

Title chance

25%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Auckland FC4234–51Auckland FC: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 25%.
  • Newcastle Jets4233–50Newcastle Jets: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance 22%.
  • Melbourne Victory4031–48Melbourne Victory: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 48. Title chance 14%.
  • Melbourne City FC3930–47Melbourne City FC: projected 39 points, likely range 30 to 47. Title chance 11%.
  • Adelaide United3829–46Adelaide United: projected 38 points, likely range 29 to 46. Title chance 8%.
  • Sydney FC3829–46Sydney FC: projected 38 points, likely range 29 to 46. Title chance 9%.
  • Macarthur FC3426–43Macarthur FC: projected 34 points, likely range 26 to 43. Title chance 3%.
  • Western Sydney3425–42Western Sydney Wanderers FC: projected 34 points, likely range 25 to 42. Title chance 3%.
  • Perth Glory3325–41Perth Glory: projected 33 points, likely range 25 to 41. Title chance 2%.
  • Brisbane Roar FC3224–40Brisbane Roar FC: projected 32 points, likely range 24 to 40. Title chance 1%.
  • Wellington Phoenix3123–39Wellington Phoenix: projected 31 points, likely range 23 to 39. Title chance 1%.
  • Central Coast2820–36Central Coast Mariners: projected 28 points, likely range 20 to 36. Title chance <1%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Auckland FC343842475125%
Newcastle Jets333742465022%
Melbourne Victory313540444814%
Melbourne City FC303439434711%
Adelaide United29333842468%
Sydney FC29333842469%
Macarthur FC26303439433%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC25293438423%
Perth Glory25283337412%
Brisbane Roar FC24273236401%
Wellington Phoenix23263135391%
Central Coast Mariners2024283236<1%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Auckland FC
  • Newcastle Jets
  • Melbourne Victory
  • Melbourne City FC
  • Sydney FC
  • Adelaide United
  • Macarthur FC
  • Western Sydney
  • Perth Glory
  • Brisbane Roar FC
  • Wellington Phoenix
  • Central Coast
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Auckland FC25%44%16%15%0%
Newcastle Jets22%43%17%19%0%
Melbourne Victory14%38%19%28%0%
Melbourne City FC11%36%20%34%0%
Sydney FC9%33%22%37%0%
Adelaide United8%32%22%38%0%
Macarthur FC3%19%18%60%0%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC3%17%18%63%0%
Perth Glory2%15%16%67%0%
Brisbane Roar FC1%12%14%73%0%
Wellington Phoenix1%9%12%78%0%
Central Coast Mariners0%4%7%88%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Auckland FC+16
  • Newcastle Jets+14
  • Central Coast-8
  • Wellington Phoenix-7
  • Brisbane Roar FC-7
  • Perth Glory-6
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.