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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

A-League Men · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Wellington Phoenix are favourites

Ahead of Auckland FC on 15%. The model projects them to finish on 41 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 32.

Title chance

21%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Wellington Phoenix4032–49Wellington Phoenix: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance 21%.
  • Auckland FC3931–47Auckland FC: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 47. Title chance 15%.
  • Melbourne City FC3931–47Melbourne City FC: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 47. Title chance 15%.
  • Western Sydney3830–46Western Sydney Wanderers FC: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 46. Title chance 14%.
  • Sydney FC3728–44Sydney FC: projected 37 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 8%.
  • Macarthur FC3527–43Macarthur FC: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 5%.
  • Brisbane Roar FC3527–43Brisbane Roar FC: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 5%.
  • Melbourne Victory3527–43Melbourne Victory: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 5%.
  • Newcastle Jets3527–43Newcastle Jets: projected 35 points, likely range 27 to 43. Title chance 5%.
  • Perth Glory3426–43Perth Glory: projected 34 points, likely range 26 to 43. Title chance 5%.
  • Adelaide United3123–39Adelaide United: projected 31 points, likely range 23 to 39. Title chance 2%.
  • Central Coast2820–36Central Coast Mariners: projected 28 points, likely range 20 to 36. Title chance <1%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Wellington Phoenix323640454921%
Auckland FC313539434715%
Melbourne City FC313539434715%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC303438434614%
Sydney FC28323741448%
Macarthur FC27303539435%
Brisbane Roar FC27313539435%
Melbourne Victory27303539435%
Newcastle Jets27303539435%
Perth Glory26303439435%
Adelaide United23273136392%
Central Coast Mariners2024283236<1%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Wellington Phoenix
  • Melbourne City FC
  • Auckland FC
  • Western Sydney
  • Sydney FC
  • Brisbane Roar FC
  • Macarthur FC
  • Melbourne Victory
  • Newcastle Jets
  • Perth Glory
  • Adelaide United
  • Central Coast
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Wellington Phoenix21%39%17%23%0%
Melbourne City FC15%36%19%30%0%
Auckland FC15%36%18%30%0%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC14%35%19%31%0%
Sydney FC8%29%20%44%0%
Brisbane Roar FC5%23%18%54%0%
Macarthur FC5%22%18%56%0%
Melbourne Victory5%22%18%56%0%
Newcastle Jets5%21%17%56%0%
Perth Glory5%21%18%57%0%
Adelaide United2%11%12%76%0%
Central Coast Mariners0%4%7%88%0%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Wellington Phoenix+13
  • Central Coast-8
  • Auckland FC+7
  • Melbourne City FC+7
  • Adelaide United-7
  • Western Sydney+6
How they got here3 matchweeks
Position by matchweekWELWESMACBRISYDAUCMELPERMEBCENNEWADE

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Wellington Phoenix113+2
Western Sydney Wanderers FC227+5
Macarthur FC323-1
Brisbane Roar FC449+5
Sydney FC546+1
Auckland FC616-5
Melbourne City FC7712+5
Perth Glory8812+3
Melbourne Victory9810+1
Central Coast Mariners10510-5
Newcastle Jets11411-7
Adelaide United12812-4
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.