Serie B · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Palermo are favourites

Ahead of Modena on 35%. The model projects them to finish on 69 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 60.

Title chance

44%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Palermo6960–79Palermo: projected 69 points, likely range 60 to 79. Title chance 44%.
Modena6858–77Modena: projected 68 points, likely range 58 to 77. Title chance 35%.
Mantova5950–69Mantova: projected 59 points, likely range 50 to 69. Title chance 7%.
Cesena5747–67Cesena: projected 57 points, likely range 47 to 67. Title chance 4%.
Südtirol5444–63Südtirol: projected 54 points, likely range 44 to 63. Title chance 2%.
Catanzaro5445–64Catanzaro: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 64. Title chance 2%.
Avellino5344–63Avellino: projected 53 points, likely range 44 to 63. Title chance 1%.
Ascoli5343–62Ascoli: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 62. Title chance 1%.
Virtus Entella5343–62Virtus Entella: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 62. Title chance 1%.
Empoli5243–61Empoli: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance <1%.
Hellas Verona5242–62Hellas Verona: projected 52 points, likely range 42 to 62. Title chance <1%.
Juve Stabia5041–60Juve Stabia: projected 50 points, likely range 41 to 60. Title chance <1%.
Sampdoria4939–58Sampdoria: projected 49 points, likely range 39 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Pisa4839–58Pisa: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Padova4637–56Padova: projected 46 points, likely range 37 to 56. Title chance <1%.
Carrarese4636–55Carrarese: projected 46 points, likely range 36 to 55. Title chance <1%.
LR Vicenza4536–55LR Vicenza: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Cremonese4536–55Cremonese: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 55. Title chance <1%.
Benevento4334–53Benevento: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 53. Title chance 0%.
Arezzo4233–52Arezzo: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 52. Title chance <1%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Palermo	60	64	69	74	79	44%
Modena	58	63	68	72	77	35%
Mantova	50	54	59	64	69	7%
Cesena	47	52	57	62	67	4%
Südtirol	44	49	54	59	63	2%
Catanzaro	45	49	54	59	64	2%
Avellino	44	48	53	58	63	1%
Ascoli	43	48	53	58	62	1%
Virtus Entella	43	48	53	58	62	1%
Empoli	43	47	52	57	61	<1%
Hellas Verona	42	47	52	57	62	<1%
Juve Stabia	41	45	50	56	60	<1%
Sampdoria	39	44	49	54	58	<1%
Pisa	39	43	48	53	58	<1%
Padova	37	41	46	51	56	<1%
Carrarese	36	41	46	51	55	<1%
LR Vicenza	36	40	45	50	55	<1%
Cremonese	36	40	45	50	55	<1%
Benevento	34	38	43	48	53	0%
Arezzo	33	38	42	47	52	<1%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Palermo
Modena
Mantova
Cesena
Catanzaro
Südtirol
Avellino
Virtus Entella
Ascoli
Hellas Verona
Empoli
Juve Stabia
Sampdoria
Pisa
Padova
Carrarese
Cremonese
LR Vicenza
Benevento
Arezzo

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Palermo	44%	44%	0%	100%	0%
Modena	35%	50%	0%	100%	0%
Mantova	7%	38%	0%	97%	3%
Cesena	4%	30%	0%	95%	5%
Catanzaro	2%	18%	0%	90%	10%
Südtirol	2%	17%	0%	89%	11%
Avellino	1%	15%	0%	86%	14%
Virtus Entella	1%	15%	0%	86%	14%
Ascoli	1%	14%	0%	85%	15%
Hellas Verona	1%	13%	0%	83%	17%
Empoli	1%	12%	0%	83%	17%
Juve Stabia	1%	9%	0%	77%	23%
Sampdoria	0%	6%	0%	70%	30%
Pisa	0%	5%	0%	67%	33%
Padova	0%	3%	0%	56%	44%
Carrarese	0%	3%	0%	56%	44%
Cremonese	0%	3%	0%	53%	47%
LR Vicenza	0%	2%	0%	51%	49%
Benevento	0%	1%	0%	41%	59%
Arezzo	0%	1%	0%	35%	65%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Palermo+39
Modena+30
Benevento-5
Arezzo-5
Carrarese-5
Cremonese-5

How they got here4 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Mantova	1	1	5	+4
Palermo	2	1	9	+7
Südtirol	3	3	6	+3
Avellino	4	4	15	+11
Modena	5	1	7	-1
Ascoli	6	2	6	-4
Padova	7	7	11	0
Cesena	8	4	10	+2
Pisa	9	5	19	+10
Empoli	10	8	12	-2
Arezzo	11	3	15	-8
LR Vicenza	12	1	13	-11
Hellas Verona	13	10	16	+3
Virtus Entella	14	14	19	+3
Benevento	15	13	17	-2
Cremonese	16	13	20	+4
Juve Stabia	17	10	18	+1
Catanzaro	18	12	20	-6
Carrarese	19	14	19	-5
Sampdoria	20	11	20	-9

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.