Serie B · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Palermo are favourites

Ahead of Modena on 25%. The model projects them to finish on 75 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 66.

Title chance

65%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Palermo7566–84Palermo: projected 75 points, likely range 66 to 84. Title chance 65%.
Modena7061–78Modena: projected 70 points, likely range 61 to 78. Title chance 25%.
Ascoli6253–71Ascoli: projected 62 points, likely range 53 to 71. Title chance 5%.
Mantova5849–66Mantova: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 66. Title chance 1%.
Benevento5748–66Benevento: projected 57 points, likely range 48 to 66. Title chance 1%.
Pisa5647–65Pisa: projected 56 points, likely range 47 to 65. Title chance <1%.
Avellino5546–64Avellino: projected 55 points, likely range 46 to 64. Title chance <1%.
Cesena5546–63Cesena: projected 55 points, likely range 46 to 63. Title chance <1%.
Hellas Verona5243–61Hellas Verona: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance <1%.
Carrarese5142–60Carrarese: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance <1%.
Juve Stabia5142–59Juve Stabia: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
Südtirol5041–58Südtirol: projected 50 points, likely range 41 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Virtus Entella4940–58Virtus Entella: projected 49 points, likely range 40 to 58. Title chance <1%.
Cremonese4839–56Cremonese: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 56. Title chance <1%.
Padova4537–54Padova: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 54. Title chance <1%.
Sampdoria4436–53Sampdoria: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 53. Title chance <1%.
LR Vicenza4234–51LR Vicenza: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 51. Title chance 0%.
Empoli4133–50Empoli: projected 41 points, likely range 33 to 50. Title chance 0%.
Catanzaro3830–47Catanzaro: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 47. Title chance 0%.
Arezzo3629–44Arezzo: projected 36 points, likely range 29 to 44. Title chance 0%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Palermo	66	70	75	80	84	65%
Modena	61	65	70	74	78	25%
Ascoli	53	57	62	67	71	5%
Mantova	49	53	58	62	66	1%
Benevento	48	52	57	61	66	1%
Pisa	47	51	56	61	65	<1%
Avellino	46	51	55	60	64	<1%
Cesena	46	50	55	59	63	<1%
Hellas Verona	43	47	52	57	61	<1%
Carrarese	42	46	51	56	60	<1%
Juve Stabia	42	46	51	55	59	<1%
Südtirol	41	45	50	54	58	<1%
Virtus Entella	40	44	49	53	58	<1%
Cremonese	39	43	48	52	56	<1%
Padova	37	41	45	49	54	<1%
Sampdoria	36	40	44	49	53	<1%
LR Vicenza	34	38	42	47	51	0%
Empoli	33	37	41	46	50	0%
Catanzaro	30	34	38	43	47	0%
Arezzo	29	32	36	41	44	0%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Palermo
Modena
Ascoli
Mantova
Benevento
Pisa
Avellino
Cesena
Hellas Verona
Carrarese
Juve Stabia
Südtirol
Virtus Entella
Cremonese
Padova
Sampdoria
LR Vicenza
Empoli
Catanzaro
Arezzo

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Palermo	65%	32%	0%	100%	0%
Modena	25%	65%	0%	100%	0%
Ascoli	5%	52%	0%	100%	0%
Mantova	1%	28%	0%	98%	2%
Benevento	1%	25%	0%	97%	3%
Pisa	1%	22%	0%	96%	4%
Avellino	1%	20%	0%	95%	5%
Cesena	0%	17%	0%	94%	6%
Hellas Verona	0%	10%	0%	89%	11%
Carrarese	0%	7%	0%	86%	14%
Juve Stabia	0%	7%	0%	86%	14%
Südtirol	0%	5%	0%	82%	18%
Virtus Entella	0%	4%	0%	80%	20%
Cremonese	0%	3%	0%	72%	28%
Padova	0%	1%	0%	58%	42%
Sampdoria	0%	1%	0%	56%	44%
LR Vicenza	0%	0%	0%	40%	60%
Empoli	0%	0%	0%	37%	63%
Catanzaro	0%	0%	0%	21%	79%
Arezzo	0%	0%	0%	11%	89%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Palermo+60
Modena+20
Arezzo-5
LR Vicenza-5
Empoli-5
Catanzaro-5

How they got here10 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Palermo	1	1	9	+8
Modena	2	1	7	+2
Ascoli	3	2	6	-1
Mantova	4	1	5	+1
Hellas Verona	5	5	16	+11
Avellino	6	4	15	+9
Benevento	7	5	17	+6
Pisa	8	3	19	+11
Südtirol	9	2	9	-3
Padova	10	7	16	-3
Juve Stabia	11	8	18	+7
Cremonese	12	12	20	+8
Cesena	13	4	15	-3
Arezzo	14	3	15	-11
Virtus Entella	15	10	19	+2
Carrarese	16	14	20	-2
LR Vicenza	17	1	18	-16
Empoli	18	8	18	-10
Sampdoria	19	11	20	-8
Catanzaro	20	12	20	-8

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.