Ligue 2 · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Saint-Étienne are favourites
Ahead of Red Star on 10%. The model projects them to finish on 69 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 60.
Title chance
75%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Saint-Étienne6960–77Saint-Étienne: projected 69 points, likely range 60 to 77. Title chance 75%.
- Red Star5849–66Red Star: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 66. Title chance 10%.
- Reims5546–64Reims: projected 55 points, likely range 46 to 64. Title chance 5%.
- Annecy FC5445–63Annecy FC: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance 3%.
- Guingamp5445–63Guingamp: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance 3%.
- Montpellier5344–62Montpellier: projected 53 points, likely range 44 to 62. Title chance 3%.
- Pau4638–55Pau: projected 46 points, likely range 38 to 55. Title chance <1%.
- Dunkerque4435–53Dunkerque: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 53. Title chance <1%.
- Nancy4435–53Nancy: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 53. Title chance <1%.
- Rodez4436–53Rodez: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 53. Title chance <1%.
- Metz4335–52Metz: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 52. Title chance <1%.
- Sochaux4234–50Sochaux: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 50. Title chance <1%.
- Clermont Foot4132–49Clermont Foot: projected 41 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance <1%.
- Grenoble4032–49Grenoble: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance <1%.
- Boulogne4032–49Boulogne: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 49. Title chance 0%.
- Nantes3830–47Nantes: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 47. Title chance 0%.
- Laval3628–44Laval: projected 36 points, likely range 28 to 44. Title chance 0%.
- Dijon3526–43Dijon: projected 35 points, likely range 26 to 43. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 60 | 64 | 69 | 73 | 77 | 75% |
| Red Star | 49 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 66 | 10% |
| Reims | 46 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 64 | 5% |
| Annecy FC | 45 | 49 | 54 | 58 | 63 | 3% |
| Guingamp | 45 | 49 | 54 | 58 | 63 | 3% |
| Montpellier | 44 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 62 | 3% |
| Pau | 38 | 42 | 46 | 51 | 55 | <1% |
| Dunkerque | 35 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 53 | <1% |
| Nancy | 35 | 39 | 44 | 48 | 53 | <1% |
| Rodez | 36 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 53 | <1% |
| Metz | 35 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 52 | <1% |
| Sochaux | 34 | 37 | 42 | 46 | 50 | <1% |
| Clermont Foot | 32 | 36 | 41 | 45 | 49 | <1% |
| Grenoble | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 49 | <1% |
| Boulogne | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 49 | 0% |
| Nantes | 30 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 0% |
| Laval | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 0% |
| Dijon | 26 | 30 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Saint-Étienne
- Red Star
- Reims
- Annecy FC
- Guingamp
- Montpellier
- Pau
- Dunkerque
- Rodez
- Nancy
- Metz
- Sochaux
- Clermont Foot
- Grenoble
- Boulogne
- Nantes
- Laval
- Dijon
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 75% | 23% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Red Star | 10% | 59% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Reims | 5% | 48% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Annecy FC | 3% | 42% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Guingamp | 3% | 43% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Montpellier | 3% | 38% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Pau | 0% | 12% | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| Dunkerque | 0% | 7% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Rodez | 0% | 7% | 0% | 89% | 11% |
| Nancy | 0% | 6% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Metz | 0% | 5% | 0% | 85% | 15% |
| Sochaux | 0% | 3% | 0% | 81% | 19% |
| Clermont Foot | 0% | 3% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Grenoble | 0% | 2% | 0% | 74% | 26% |
| Boulogne | 0% | 2% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Nantes | 0% | 1% | 0% | 64% | 36% |
| Laval | 0% | 0% | 0% | 48% | 52% |
| Dijon | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 60% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Saint-Étienne+70
- Dijon-6
- Boulogne-6
- Nantes-6
- Laval-6
- Sochaux-6
How they got here6 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Reims | 2 | 2 | 12 | +10 |
| Montpellier | 3 | 2 | 7 | +4 |
| Red Star | 4 | 4 | 8 | +2 |
| Annecy FC | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Metz | 6 | 4 | 7 | -2 |
| Sochaux | 7 | 7 | 18 | +11 |
| Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 10 | -6 |
| Guingamp | 9 | 8 | 13 | +4 |
| Nancy | 10 | 5 | 14 | +1 |
| Rodez | 11 | 3 | 11 | -8 |
| Grenoble | 12 | 12 | 17 | +4 |
| Dijon | 13 | 8 | 18 | -5 |
| Boulogne | 14 | 9 | 15 | -5 |
| Pau | 15 | 9 | 15 | -1 |
| Clermont Foot | 16 | 10 | 16 | -6 |
| Nantes | 17 | 15 | 18 | -2 |
| Laval | 18 | 10 | 18 | -1 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.