Ligue 2 · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Saint-Étienne are favourites
Ahead of Montpellier on 21%. The model projects them to finish on 66 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 58.
Title chance
61%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Saint-Étienne6658–74Saint-Étienne: projected 66 points, likely range 58 to 74. Title chance 61%.
- Montpellier6153–69Montpellier: projected 61 points, likely range 53 to 69. Title chance 21%.
- Nancy5547–63Nancy: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 63. Title chance 5%.
- Reims5446–62Reims: projected 54 points, likely range 46 to 62. Title chance 5%.
- Pau5346–62Pau: projected 53 points, likely range 46 to 62. Title chance 3%.
- Red Star5245–61Red Star: projected 52 points, likely range 45 to 61. Title chance 2%.
- Annecy FC5143–59Annecy FC: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 59. Title chance 1%.
- Guingamp5042–58Guingamp: projected 50 points, likely range 42 to 58. Title chance 1%.
- Dijon4840–56Dijon: projected 48 points, likely range 40 to 56. Title chance <1%.
- Rodez4537–53Rodez: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 53. Title chance <1%.
- Dunkerque4436–52Dunkerque: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 52. Title chance <1%.
- Metz4234–50Metz: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 50. Title chance <1%.
- Boulogne4235–50Boulogne: projected 42 points, likely range 35 to 50. Title chance <1%.
- Laval3931–47Laval: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 47. Title chance 0%.
- Sochaux3528–43Sochaux: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
- Nantes3528–43Nantes: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
- Clermont Foot3225–40Clermont Foot: projected 32 points, likely range 25 to 40. Title chance 0%.
- Grenoble3225–40Grenoble: projected 32 points, likely range 25 to 40. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 58 | 62 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 61% |
| Montpellier | 53 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 69 | 21% |
| Nancy | 47 | 50 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 5% |
| Reims | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 62 | 5% |
| Pau | 46 | 49 | 53 | 58 | 62 | 3% |
| Red Star | 45 | 48 | 52 | 57 | 61 | 2% |
| Annecy FC | 43 | 46 | 51 | 55 | 59 | 1% |
| Guingamp | 42 | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 1% |
| Dijon | 40 | 43 | 48 | 52 | 56 | <1% |
| Rodez | 37 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 | <1% |
| Dunkerque | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | <1% |
| Metz | 34 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 50 | <1% |
| Boulogne | 35 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 50 | <1% |
| Laval | 31 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 0% |
| Sochaux | 28 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 0% |
| Nantes | 28 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 43 | 0% |
| Clermont Foot | 25 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 0% |
| Grenoble | 25 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Saint-Étienne
- Montpellier
- Nancy
- Reims
- Pau
- Red Star
- Annecy FC
- Guingamp
- Dijon
- Rodez
- Dunkerque
- Boulogne
- Metz
- Laval
- Nantes
- Sochaux
- Clermont Foot
- Grenoble
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 61% | 34% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Montpellier | 21% | 60% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Nancy | 5% | 40% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Reims | 5% | 38% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Pau | 3% | 35% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Red Star | 2% | 29% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Annecy FC | 1% | 21% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Guingamp | 1% | 19% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Dijon | 0% | 11% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Rodez | 0% | 5% | 0% | 95% | 5% |
| Dunkerque | 0% | 4% | 0% | 92% | 8% |
| Boulogne | 0% | 2% | 0% | 91% | 9% |
| Metz | 0% | 2% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Laval | 0% | 1% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Nantes | 0% | 0% | 0% | 55% | 45% |
| Sochaux | 0% | 0% | 0% | 49% | 51% |
| Clermont Foot | 0% | 0% | 0% | 30% | 70% |
| Grenoble | 0% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 71% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Saint-Étienne+56
- Montpellier+15
- Sochaux-6
- Nantes-6
- Laval-6
- Clermont Foot-6
How they got here10 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Étienne | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Montpellier | 2 | 2 | 7 | +5 |
| Nancy | 3 | 3 | 14 | +8 |
| Reims | 4 | 2 | 12 | +8 |
| Pau | 5 | 5 | 15 | +9 |
| Red Star | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Annecy FC | 7 | 2 | 8 | -2 |
| Metz | 8 | 4 | 10 | -4 |
| Dijon | 9 | 7 | 18 | -1 |
| Dunkerque | 10 | 2 | 11 | -8 |
| Guingamp | 11 | 8 | 13 | +2 |
| Sochaux | 12 | 7 | 18 | +6 |
| Boulogne | 13 | 9 | 17 | -4 |
| Rodez | 14 | 3 | 17 | -11 |
| Nantes | 15 | 13 | 18 | 0 |
| Grenoble | 16 | 12 | 17 | 0 |
| Clermont Foot | 17 | 10 | 17 | -7 |
| Laval | 18 | 10 | 18 | -1 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.