LaLiga 2 · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Castellón are favourites
Ahead of Almería on 6%. The model projects them to finish on 89 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 80.
Title chance
87%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Castellón8980–97Castellón: projected 89 points, likely range 80 to 97. Title chance 87%.
- Almería7566–84Almería: projected 75 points, likely range 66 to 84. Title chance 6%.
- Burgos CF7163–80Burgos CF: projected 71 points, likely range 63 to 80. Title chance 2%.
- Granada6959–77Granada: projected 69 points, likely range 59 to 77. Title chance 1%.
- Sporting Gijón6859–77Sporting Gijón: projected 68 points, likely range 59 to 77. Title chance <1%.
- Girona6657–76Girona: projected 66 points, likely range 57 to 76. Title chance <1%.
- Eibar6556–74Eibar: projected 65 points, likely range 56 to 74. Title chance <1%.
- Córdoba6556–74Córdoba: projected 65 points, likely range 56 to 74. Title chance <1%.
- Real Oviedo5849–67Real Oviedo: projected 58 points, likely range 49 to 67. Title chance <1%.
- Mallorca5647–65Mallorca: projected 56 points, likely range 47 to 65. Title chance <1%.
- Sabadell5647–65Sabadell: projected 56 points, likely range 47 to 65. Title chance 0%.
- Las Palmas5445–63Las Palmas: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance <1%.
- Leganés5445–63Leganés: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance 0%.
- Tenerife5243–61Tenerife: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance 0%.
- Real Sociedad B5243–61Real Sociedad B: projected 52 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance 0%.
- Real Valladolid5142–60Real Valladolid: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance 0%.
- Eldense5143–61Eldense: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 61. Title chance 0%.
- FC Andorra4839–58FC Andorra: projected 48 points, likely range 39 to 58. Title chance 0%.
- Celta Fortuna4537–54Celta Fortuna: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 54. Title chance 0%.
- Cádiz4537–55Cádiz: projected 45 points, likely range 37 to 55. Title chance 0%.
- Albacete4334–52Albacete: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 52. Title chance 0%.
- AD Ceuta FC3830–48AD Ceuta FC: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 48. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 80 | 84 | 89 | 94 | 97 | 87% |
| Almería | 66 | 70 | 75 | 79 | 84 | 6% |
| Burgos CF | 63 | 67 | 71 | 76 | 80 | 2% |
| Granada | 59 | 64 | 69 | 73 | 77 | 1% |
| Sporting Gijón | 59 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 77 | <1% |
| Girona | 57 | 62 | 66 | 71 | 76 | <1% |
| Eibar | 56 | 60 | 65 | 69 | 74 | <1% |
| Córdoba | 56 | 61 | 65 | 70 | 74 | <1% |
| Real Oviedo | 49 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 67 | <1% |
| Mallorca | 47 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 65 | <1% |
| Sabadell | 47 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 65 | 0% |
| Las Palmas | 45 | 49 | 54 | 59 | 63 | <1% |
| Leganés | 45 | 49 | 54 | 58 | 63 | 0% |
| Tenerife | 43 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 61 | 0% |
| Real Sociedad B | 43 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 61 | 0% |
| Real Valladolid | 42 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 0% |
| Eldense | 43 | 47 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 0% |
| FC Andorra | 39 | 44 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 0% |
| Celta Fortuna | 37 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 54 | 0% |
| Cádiz | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 0% |
| Albacete | 34 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 0% |
| AD Ceuta FC | 30 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Castellón
- Almería
- Burgos CF
- Granada
- Sporting Gijón
- Girona
- Córdoba
- Eibar
- Real Oviedo
- Mallorca
- Sabadell
- Las Palmas
- Leganés
- Tenerife
- Real Sociedad B
- Eldense
- Real Valladolid
- FC Andorra
- Cádiz
- Celta Fortuna
- Albacete
- AD Ceuta FC
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 87% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Almería | 6% | 68% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Burgos CF | 2% | 56% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Granada | 1% | 39% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Sporting Gijón | 1% | 36% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Girona | 1% | 30% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Córdoba | 0% | 24% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Eibar | 0% | 20% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Real Oviedo | 0% | 4% | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Mallorca | 0% | 3% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Sabadell | 0% | 3% | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| Las Palmas | 0% | 1% | 0% | 88% | 12% |
| Leganés | 0% | 1% | 0% | 87% | 13% |
| Tenerife | 0% | 1% | 0% | 84% | 16% |
| Real Sociedad B | 0% | 1% | 0% | 83% | 17% |
| Eldense | 0% | 1% | 0% | 81% | 19% |
| Real Valladolid | 0% | 1% | 0% | 80% | 20% |
| FC Andorra | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Cádiz | 0% | 0% | 0% | 52% | 48% |
| Celta Fortuna | 0% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 54% |
| Albacete | 0% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 66% |
| AD Ceuta FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 84% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Castellón+83
- Sabadell-5
- Real Valladolid-5
- Tenerife-5
- Eldense-5
- Celta Fortuna-5
How they got here11 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1 | 1 | 7 | +6 |
| Almería | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Eibar | 3 | 1 | 19 | +16 |
| Girona | 4 | 4 | 17 | +4 |
| Granada | 5 | 1 | 14 | +7 |
| Burgos CF | 6 | 4 | 14 | -1 |
| Mallorca | 7 | 3 | 13 | -3 |
| Sporting Gijón | 8 | 4 | 15 | +7 |
| Real Oviedo | 9 | 7 | 18 | +5 |
| Sabadell | 10 | 3 | 16 | +1 |
| Córdoba | 11 | 10 | 20 | +5 |
| Eldense | 12 | 11 | 21 | +9 |
| Tenerife | 13 | 2 | 13 | -10 |
| Las Palmas | 14 | 1 | 16 | -8 |
| Real Valladolid | 15 | 11 | 21 | +5 |
| Celta Fortuna | 16 | 3 | 18 | -6 |
| Leganés | 17 | 3 | 17 | -8 |
| Cádiz | 18 | 13 | 20 | -5 |
| FC Andorra | 19 | 1 | 20 | -18 |
| Real Sociedad B | 20 | 8 | 20 | -2 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 21 | 21 | 22 | +1 |
| Albacete | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.