LaLiga 2 · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons
Castellón are favourites
Ahead of Eibar on 7%. The model projects them to finish on 86 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 76.
Title chance
84%
est.The spread
Where every club finishes
The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.
- Castellón8676–95Castellón: projected 86 points, likely range 76 to 95. Title chance 84%.
- Eibar7161–81Eibar: projected 71 points, likely range 61 to 81. Title chance 7%.
- Burgos CF6656–76Burgos CF: projected 66 points, likely range 56 to 76. Title chance 2%.
- Almería6555–75Almería: projected 65 points, likely range 55 to 75. Title chance 2%.
- Mallorca6454–74Mallorca: projected 64 points, likely range 54 to 74. Title chance 1%.
- Real Sociedad B6353–73Real Sociedad B: projected 63 points, likely range 53 to 73. Title chance <1%.
- Sporting Gijón6354–73Sporting Gijón: projected 63 points, likely range 54 to 73. Title chance 1%.
- Leganés6252–72Leganés: projected 62 points, likely range 52 to 72. Title chance <1%.
- Las Palmas6152–71Las Palmas: projected 61 points, likely range 52 to 71. Title chance <1%.
- Granada6050–70Granada: projected 60 points, likely range 50 to 70. Title chance <1%.
- Tenerife5848–67Tenerife: projected 58 points, likely range 48 to 67. Title chance <1%.
- Sabadell5646–66Sabadell: projected 56 points, likely range 46 to 66. Title chance <1%.
- FC Andorra5646–66FC Andorra: projected 56 points, likely range 46 to 66. Title chance <1%.
- Córdoba5444–64Córdoba: projected 54 points, likely range 44 to 64. Title chance <1%.
- Real Oviedo5343–63Real Oviedo: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 63. Title chance <1%.
- Girona5343–63Girona: projected 53 points, likely range 43 to 63. Title chance <1%.
- Celta Fortuna5242–62Celta Fortuna: projected 52 points, likely range 42 to 62. Title chance <1%.
- Real Valladolid5242–62Real Valladolid: projected 52 points, likely range 42 to 62. Title chance <1%.
- Albacete4737–56Albacete: projected 47 points, likely range 37 to 56. Title chance 0%.
- Eldense4535–55Eldense: projected 45 points, likely range 35 to 55. Title chance 0%.
- Cádiz4536–55Cádiz: projected 45 points, likely range 36 to 55. Title chance 0%.
- AD Ceuta FC3526–45AD Ceuta FC: projected 35 points, likely range 26 to 45. Title chance 0%.
Show dataHide data
| Club | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 76 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 95 | 84% |
| Eibar | 61 | 65 | 71 | 76 | 81 | 7% |
| Burgos CF | 56 | 60 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 2% |
| Almería | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 75 | 2% |
| Mallorca | 54 | 58 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 1% |
| Real Sociedad B | 53 | 57 | 63 | 68 | 73 | <1% |
| Sporting Gijón | 54 | 58 | 63 | 69 | 73 | 1% |
| Leganés | 52 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 72 | <1% |
| Las Palmas | 52 | 56 | 61 | 67 | 71 | <1% |
| Granada | 50 | 55 | 60 | 66 | 70 | <1% |
| Tenerife | 48 | 52 | 58 | 63 | 67 | <1% |
| Sabadell | 46 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 66 | <1% |
| FC Andorra | 46 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 66 | <1% |
| Córdoba | 44 | 49 | 54 | 59 | 64 | <1% |
| Real Oviedo | 43 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 63 | <1% |
| Girona | 43 | 48 | 53 | 58 | 63 | <1% |
| Celta Fortuna | 42 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 62 | <1% |
| Real Valladolid | 42 | 46 | 52 | 57 | 62 | <1% |
| Albacete | 37 | 41 | 47 | 52 | 56 | 0% |
| Eldense | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 0% |
| Cádiz | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 0% |
| AD Ceuta FC | 26 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 0% |
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
- Castellón
- Eibar
- Burgos CF
- Almería
- Mallorca
- Sporting Gijón
- Real Sociedad B
- Leganés
- Las Palmas
- Granada
- Tenerife
- FC Andorra
- Sabadell
- Córdoba
- Real Oviedo
- Girona
- Celta Fortuna
- Real Valladolid
- Albacete
- Cádiz
- Eldense
- AD Ceuta FC
Show dataHide data
| Club | Win it | Top four | Europe | Mid-table | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 84% | 15% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Eibar | 7% | 56% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Burgos CF | 2% | 37% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Almería | 2% | 32% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Mallorca | 1% | 27% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Sporting Gijón | 1% | 26% | 0% | 99% | 1% |
| Real Sociedad B | 1% | 23% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Leganés | 1% | 20% | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Las Palmas | 1% | 17% | 0% | 97% | 3% |
| Granada | 1% | 15% | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Tenerife | 0% | 8% | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| FC Andorra | 0% | 6% | 0% | 90% | 10% |
| Sabadell | 0% | 6% | 0% | 89% | 11% |
| Córdoba | 0% | 3% | 0% | 84% | 16% |
| Real Oviedo | 0% | 3% | 0% | 82% | 18% |
| Girona | 0% | 3% | 0% | 81% | 19% |
| Celta Fortuna | 0% | 2% | 0% | 78% | 22% |
| Real Valladolid | 0% | 2% | 0% | 76% | 24% |
| Albacete | 0% | 0% | 0% | 52% | 48% |
| Cádiz | 0% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| Eldense | 0% | 0% | 0% | 41% | 59% |
| AD Ceuta FC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% |
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
- Castellón+79
- Eldense-5
- Cádiz-5
- Albacete-5
- AD Ceuta FC-5
- Celta Fortuna-5
How they got here5 matchweeks
Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.
First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.
Show dataHide data
| Club | Now | Best | Worst | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1 | 1 | 7 | +6 |
| Eibar | 2 | 2 | 19 | +17 |
| Mallorca | 3 | 3 | 13 | +1 |
| Tenerife | 4 | 2 | 8 | -1 |
| Las Palmas | 5 | 1 | 10 | +1 |
| Almería | 6 | 2 | 16 | -4 |
| Real Oviedo | 7 | 7 | 18 | +7 |
| Real Sociedad B | 8 | 8 | 18 | +10 |
| Burgos CF | 9 | 5 | 14 | -4 |
| Granada | 10 | 1 | 12 | +2 |
| Sabadell | 11 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Leganés | 12 | 3 | 12 | -3 |
| Girona | 13 | 5 | 17 | -5 |
| Celta Fortuna | 14 | 3 | 14 | -4 |
| Sporting Gijón | 15 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Eldense | 16 | 16 | 21 | +5 |
| Real Valladolid | 17 | 16 | 21 | +3 |
| FC Andorra | 18 | 1 | 18 | -17 |
| Cádiz | 19 | 13 | 19 | -6 |
| Córdoba | 20 | 10 | 20 | -4 |
| Albacete | 21 | 17 | 21 | -4 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 |
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits
Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.
Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.
What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.
Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.