2. Bundesliga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Hertha BSC are favourites

Ahead of 1. FC Nürnberg on 30%. The model projects them to finish on 64 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 55.

Title chance

49%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

Hertha BSC6455–73Hertha BSC: projected 64 points, likely range 55 to 73. Title chance 49%.
1. FC Nürnberg6152–701. FC Nürnberg: projected 61 points, likely range 52 to 70. Title chance 30%.
Hannover 965445–63Hannover 96: projected 54 points, likely range 45 to 63. Title chance 6%.
FC Heidenheim5244–62FC Heidenheim: projected 52 points, likely range 44 to 62. Title chance 4%.
Kaiserslautern5142–60Kaiserslautern: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 60. Title chance 3%.
Magdeburg5041–59Magdeburg: projected 50 points, likely range 41 to 59. Title chance 2%.
Bochum5041–59Bochum: projected 50 points, likely range 41 to 59. Title chance 2%.
Wolfsburg4738–56Wolfsburg: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 56. Title chance <1%.
Arminia Bielefeld4738–56Arminia Bielefeld: projected 47 points, likely range 38 to 56. Title chance <1%.
Energie Cottbus4435–53Energie Cottbus: projected 44 points, likely range 35 to 53. Title chance <1%.
Darmstadt4334–52Darmstadt: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 52. Title chance <1%.
Dynamo Dresden4334–52Dynamo Dresden: projected 43 points, likely range 34 to 52. Title chance <1%.
St. Pauli4233–51St. Pauli: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 51. Title chance <1%.
Greuther Fürth4233–51Greuther Fürth: projected 42 points, likely range 33 to 51. Title chance <1%.
Holstein Kiel4132–50Holstein Kiel: projected 41 points, likely range 32 to 50. Title chance <1%.
Eintracht Braunschweig4031–49Eintracht Braunschweig: projected 40 points, likely range 31 to 49. Title chance <1%.
VfL Osnabrück3931–48VfL Osnabrück: projected 39 points, likely range 31 to 48. Title chance <1%.
Karlsruher SC3930–48Karlsruher SC: projected 39 points, likely range 30 to 48. Title chance <1%.

10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median

Show data

Projected final points by club
Club	p10	p25	Median	p75	p90	Title
Hertha BSC	55	59	64	69	73	49%
1. FC Nürnberg	52	56	61	66	70	30%
Hannover 96	45	49	54	59	63	6%
FC Heidenheim	44	48	52	57	62	4%
Kaiserslautern	42	46	51	56	60	3%
Magdeburg	41	45	50	55	59	2%
Bochum	41	45	50	55	59	2%
Wolfsburg	38	42	47	52	56	<1%
Arminia Bielefeld	38	42	47	51	56	<1%
Energie Cottbus	35	39	44	49	53	<1%
Darmstadt	34	38	43	48	52	<1%
Dynamo Dresden	34	38	43	47	52	<1%
St. Pauli	33	37	42	47	51	<1%
Greuther Fürth	33	37	42	46	51	<1%
Holstein Kiel	32	36	41	46	50	<1%
Eintracht Braunschweig	31	35	40	45	49	<1%
VfL Osnabrück	31	34	39	44	48	<1%
Karlsruher SC	30	34	39	44	48	<1%

What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar

Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated

Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
Hannover 96
FC Heidenheim
Kaiserslautern
Magdeburg
Bochum
Wolfsburg
Arminia Bielefeld
Energie Cottbus
Darmstadt
Dynamo Dresden
St. Pauli
Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig
VfL Osnabrück
Karlsruher SC

Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.

Show data

Simulated outcomes by club
Club	Win it	Top four	Europe	Mid-table	Relegated
Hertha BSC	49%	42%	0%	100%	0%
1. FC Nürnberg	30%	53%	0%	100%	0%
Hannover 96	6%	41%	0%	99%	1%
FC Heidenheim	4%	33%	0%	98%	2%
Kaiserslautern	3%	27%	0%	97%	3%
Magdeburg	2%	23%	0%	96%	4%
Bochum	2%	22%	0%	96%	4%
Wolfsburg	1%	14%	0%	91%	9%
Arminia Bielefeld	1%	12%	0%	90%	10%
Energie Cottbus	0%	7%	0%	82%	18%
Darmstadt	0%	5%	0%	79%	21%
Dynamo Dresden	0%	5%	0%	77%	23%
St. Pauli	0%	4%	0%	73%	27%
Greuther Fürth	0%	4%	0%	72%	28%
Holstein Kiel	0%	3%	0%	70%	30%
Eintracht Braunschweig	0%	2%	0%	65%	35%
VfL Osnabrück	0%	2%	0%	58%	42%
Karlsruher SC	0%	2%	0%	57%	43%

Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August

Hertha BSC+44
1. FC Nürnberg+24
VfL Osnabrück-6
Karlsruher SC-6
Eintracht Braunschweig-5
Holstein Kiel-5

How they got here5 matchweeks

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data

Position by matchweek
Club	Now	Best	Worst	Moved
Hertha BSC	1	1	6	+5
1. FC Nürnberg	2	1	2	0
FC Heidenheim	3	3	9	+1
Magdeburg	4	4	18	+14
Wolfsburg	5	3	12	+7
Kaiserslautern	6	5	14	+5
Energie Cottbus	7	3	12	-4
Bochum	8	6	15	+7
St. Pauli	9	9	16	0
VfL Osnabrück	10	8	18	+3
Greuther Fürth	11	7	16	-1
Karlsruher SC	12	3	12	-7
Eintracht Braunschweig	13	1	14	-12
Arminia Bielefeld	14	6	14	0
Hannover 96	15	13	17	+1
Darmstadt	16	8	18	-8
Dynamo Dresden	17	11	17	0
Holstein Kiel	18	7	18	-11

How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.