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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · 2026/2027 · 8,000 simulated seasons

Hertha BSC are favourites

Ahead of Magdeburg on 2%. The model projects them to finish on 75 points, though a tenth of the simulations end below 67.

Title chance

96%

est.

The spread

Where every club finishes

The pale bar is the tenth to ninetieth percentile, the darker bar the middle half, the notch the median. Overlap between two clubs is the race.

  • Hertha BSC7567–82Hertha BSC: projected 75 points, likely range 67 to 82. Title chance 96%.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg5547–631. FC Nürnberg: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 63. Title chance 1%.
  • Magdeburg5547–63Magdeburg: projected 55 points, likely range 47 to 63. Title chance 2%.
  • Kaiserslautern5143–59Kaiserslautern: projected 51 points, likely range 43 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • FC Heidenheim5142–59FC Heidenheim: projected 51 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • Wolfsburg5042–59Wolfsburg: projected 50 points, likely range 42 to 59. Title chance <1%.
  • Hannover 964941–57Hannover 96: projected 49 points, likely range 41 to 57. Title chance <1%.
  • Arminia Bielefeld4739–55Arminia Bielefeld: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 55. Title chance <1%.
  • St. Pauli4739–55St. Pauli: projected 47 points, likely range 39 to 55. Title chance <1%.
  • Bochum4436–52Bochum: projected 44 points, likely range 36 to 52. Title chance <1%.
  • VfL Osnabrück4335–51VfL Osnabrück: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Dynamo Dresden4335–51Dynamo Dresden: projected 43 points, likely range 35 to 51. Title chance 0%.
  • Eintracht Braunschweig4234–50Eintracht Braunschweig: projected 42 points, likely range 34 to 50. Title chance 0%.
  • Darmstadt4032–48Darmstadt: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 48. Title chance 0%.
  • Holstein Kiel4032–48Holstein Kiel: projected 40 points, likely range 32 to 48. Title chance <1%.
  • Karlsruher SC3830–46Karlsruher SC: projected 38 points, likely range 30 to 46. Title chance 0%.
  • Greuther Fürth3730–45Greuther Fürth: projected 37 points, likely range 30 to 45. Title chance 0%.
  • Energie Cottbus3528–43Energie Cottbus: projected 35 points, likely range 28 to 43. Title chance 0%.
10th–90th percentilemiddle 50%median
Show data
Projected final points by club
Clubp10p25Medianp75p90Title
Hertha BSC677075798296%
1. FC Nürnberg47505559631%
Magdeburg47515559632%
Kaiserslautern4347515659<1%
FC Heidenheim4246515559<1%
Wolfsburg4246505459<1%
Hannover 964144495357<1%
Arminia Bielefeld3943475255<1%
St. Pauli3942475155<1%
Bochum3640444852<1%
VfL Osnabrück35394348510%
Dynamo Dresden35394347510%
Eintracht Braunschweig34384246500%
Darmstadt32364044480%
Holstein Kiel3236404448<1%
Karlsruher SC30343842460%
Greuther Fürth30333741450%
Energie Cottbus28313540430%
What happens to each clubTitle, Europe, relegation — as one bar
Win itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
  • Hertha BSC
  • Magdeburg
  • 1. FC Nürnberg
  • Kaiserslautern
  • Wolfsburg
  • FC Heidenheim
  • Hannover 96
  • Arminia Bielefeld
  • St. Pauli
  • Bochum
  • VfL Osnabrück
  • Dynamo Dresden
  • Eintracht Braunschweig
  • Holstein Kiel
  • Darmstadt
  • Karlsruher SC
  • Greuther Fürth
  • Energie Cottbus
Each bar is one club’s whole season across 8,000 simulations. The bands are made disjoint before stacking — “top four” here means top four and not the title — because the source probabilities nest and stacking them raw would take a club past 100%.
Show data
Simulated outcomes by club
ClubWin itTop fourEuropeMid-tableRelegated
Hertha BSC96%4%0%100%0%
Magdeburg2%60%0%100%0%
1. FC Nürnberg1%56%0%100%0%
Kaiserslautern0%35%0%99%1%
Wolfsburg0%31%0%98%2%
FC Heidenheim0%32%0%98%2%
Hannover 960%23%0%97%3%
Arminia Bielefeld0%17%0%95%5%
St. Pauli0%15%0%94%6%
Bochum0%7%0%88%12%
VfL Osnabrück0%6%0%85%15%
Dynamo Dresden0%5%0%82%18%
Eintracht Braunschweig0%4%0%81%19%
Holstein Kiel0%2%0%71%29%
Darmstadt0%2%0%68%32%
Karlsruher SC0%1%0%54%46%
Greuther Fürth0%0%0%50%50%
Energie Cottbus0%0%0%40%60%
Which way the season has movedChange in title chance since August
  • Hertha BSC+90
  • Greuther Fürth-6
  • VfL Osnabrück-6
  • Karlsruher SC-6
  • Energie Cottbus-6
  • Eintracht Braunschweig-6
How they got here10 matchweeks
Position by matchweekHERFCNWOLKAIMAGFCHARMSTPGREVFLBOCHANKARENEEINDARHOLDYN

Hover a line to follow one club. Position is recomputed after every completed matchweek using this competition’s own tiebreakers.

First place is at the top. Line colour is the zone each club sits in now — the same bands as the table — because twenty clubs cannot have twenty legible colours. A matchweek appears only once every fixture in it has been played.

Show data
Position by matchweek
ClubNowBestWorstMoved
Hertha BSC116+5
1. FC Nürnberg2120
Wolfsburg3312+9
Kaiserslautern4314+7
Magdeburg5418+13
FC Heidenheim639-2
Arminia Bielefeld7614+7
St. Pauli8716+1
Greuther Fürth9716+1
VfL Osnabrück10818+3
Bochum11616+4
Hannover 96121017+4
Karlsruher SC13317-8
Energie Cottbus14314-11
Eintracht Braunschweig15115-14
Darmstadt16818-8
Holstein Kiel17718-10
Dynamo Dresden181118-1
How the projection is madeMethod and its limits

Every remaining fixture is played 8,000 times with a bivariate-Poisson goal model, drawn from each club’s current attack and defence ratings and the competition’s own home advantage. The shared covariance term matters: goals in a match are not independent, and modelling them as if they were understates draws.

Each simulated season is then ranked with this competition’s tiebreakers, not a generic one — which is why a club level on points can hold a different title probability here than elsewhere.

What it cannot do: injuries, transfers, a manager leaving, or a club with nothing left to play for in May. A shown 0% means it did not occur in 8,000 runs, not that it is impossible.

Ratings and the table behind them are on the league page.