Championship · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Level at the top
West Ham United (14) from Swansea City (14) with 39 matchweeks left. The model gives West Ham United 23%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · West Ham United are 1st in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
West Ham United are 1st in their first season up
14 points from 7 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position1stPoints14Relegation risk0%Overperforming
West Bromwich Albion are 5.8 points ahead of their xG
14 points from an expected 8.2. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points14Expected8.2xG for8.1Underperforming
Preston North End are 7.8 points short of their xG
3 points from an expected 10.8. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points3Expected10.8xG for10.2Form
West Ham United have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 14 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Bolton Wanderers have lost 4 of their last 5
20th on 7, and falling.
FormL L L L WPosition20th
Games that move the table3 · Derby v Wrexham
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Derby v Wrexham
22nd against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
DER35%Draw28%WRE37%Key fixture
Burnley v Derby
24th against 22nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BUR42%Draw27%DER31%Key fixture
Cardiff v Watford
21st against 17th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CAR42%Draw27%WAT31%
The people who decide it3 · Jarrod Bowen
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Jarrod Bowen
3 goals and 1 assist for West Ham, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 39 of 83 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.4Player
Callum Lang
3 goals and 0 assists for Preston, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 39 of 83 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.4Player
Eric Bocat
1 goal and 2 assists for Stoke, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 39 of 83 matches.
Goals1Assists2Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.