Championship · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Middlesbrough (28) from Swansea City (26) with 33 matchweeks left. The model gives Middlesbrough 84%.
What is being decided1 · 2 points between Burnley and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Wolverhampton Wanderers are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Wolverhampton Wanderers are 3rd in their first season up
24 points from 13 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position3rdPoints24Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Stoke City are 8.1 points ahead of their xG
23 points from an expected 14.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points23Expected14.9xG for13.6Underperforming
Preston North End are 9.7 points short of their xG
5 points from an expected 14.7. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points5Expected14.7xG for16.0Form
Middlesbrough have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 28 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W D W WPosition1stForm
Southampton have won 4 of their last 5
5th on 23 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W D W WPosition5th
Games that move the table3 · Charlton v Lincoln
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Charlton v Lincoln
20th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CHA42%Draw28%LIN31%Key fixture
Charlton v Bolton
20th against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CHA47%Draw26%BOL28%Key fixture
Lincoln v Wrexham
16th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LIN27%Draw26%WRE48%
The people who decide it3 · Will Lankshear
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Will Lankshear
4 goals and 0 assists for Middlesbrough, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 33 of 156 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 902.2Player
Richard Kone
4 goals and 1 assist for QPR, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 33 of 156 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 902.2Player
Andri Guðjohnsen
4 goals and 0 assists for Blackburn, 1.5 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 3.2. Over the last 33 of 156 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.