Liga MX · 2026/2027 - Apertura
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
CF América (29) from Chivas (29) with 2 matchweeks left. The model gives CF América 45%.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Atlas are 9.1 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Atlas are 9.1 points ahead of their xG
27 points from an expected 17.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points27Expected17.9xG for21.0Underperforming
Necaxa are 13.6 points short of their xG
10 points from an expected 23.6. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points10Expected23.6xG for28.2Form
Cruz Azul have won 4 of their last 5
3rd on 29 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition3rdForm
Santos Laguna have won 4 of their last 5
8th on 22 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition8th
Games that move the table3 · Chivas v Cruz Azul
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Chivas v Cruz Azul
2nd against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CHI40%Draw28%CRU32%Key fixture
Pumas v América
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
PUM35%Draw26%CFA38%Key fixture
León v Chivas
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
LEN40%Draw28%CHI32%
The people who decide it3 · Andrés Montaño
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Andrés Montaño
4 goals and 2 assists for Cruz Azul, 2.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 28 of 134 matches.
Goals4Assists2Per 902.3Player
Lucas Ocampos
2 goals and 2 assists for Monterrey, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 28 of 134 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.5Player
Tahiel Jiménez
3 goals and 0 assists for Santos, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 28 of 134 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.