Liga MX · 2026/2027 - Apertura
Ask a questionProjection
Just 2 points in it
Toluca (19) from Chivas (17) with 9 matchweeks left. The model gives Toluca 53%.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Atlas are 5.3 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Atlas are 5.3 points ahead of their xG
13 points from an expected 7.7. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points13Expected7.7xG for8.8Underperforming
Santos Laguna are 5.5 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 9.5. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected9.5xG for10.9Form
Toluca have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 19 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Chivas have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 17 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W D W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Cruz Azul v Toluca
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Cruz Azul v Toluca
4th against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CRU33%Draw26%TOL41%Key fixture
Tigres v Toluca
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
TIG23%Draw25%TOL51%Key fixture
Toluca v Santos
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
TOL62%Draw22%SAN16%
The people who decide it3 · José Paradela
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
José Paradela
2 goals and 3 assists for Cruz Azul, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 70 matches.
Goals2Assists3Per 902.2Player
Santiago Homenchenko
2 goals and 1 assist for Querétaro, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 70 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.5Player
Jesús Angulo
1 goal and 1 assist for Toluca, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 70 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.