Bundesliga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Bayern München (18) from Borussia Dortmund (18) with 26 matchweeks left. The model gives Bayern München 94%.
What is being decided2 · 2 points between Union Berlin and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
2 points between Union Berlin and safety
Union Berlin sit 16th on 7, with Hamburger SV the first side above the line on 9. The model puts Union Berlin down 49% of the time.
Gap to safety2Games left26Relegation risk49%Projection
Leverkusen and Elversberg are level on the European cut
Bayer Leverkusen hold 6th on 13; Elversberg are 7th on 13.
Leverkusen13Elversberg13Games left26
Running hot, and living on luck3 · Elversberg are 7th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Elversberg are 7th in their first season up
13 points from 8 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 17%.
Position7thPoints13Relegation risk17%Overperforming
Elversberg are 5.9 points ahead of their xG
13 points from an expected 7.1. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points13Expected7.1xG for11.3Underperforming
Borussia Mönchengladbach are 4.9 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 8.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected8.9xG for12.9
Games that move the table3 · Hamburger SV v M'gladbach
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Hamburger SV v M'gladbach
15th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
HAM33%Draw30%BMG37%Key fixture
Union Berlin v Hamburger SV
16th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
UNI42%Draw31%HAM26%Key fixture
Hamburger SV v Schalke 04
15th against 17th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
HAM44%Draw31%SCH25%
The people who decide it3 · Niclas Füllkrug
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Niclas Füllkrug
5 goals and 0 assists for Werder Bremen, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 72 matches.
Goals5Assists0Per 901.7Player
Rômulo
3 goals and 0 assists for RB Leipzig, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 72 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.7Player
Antonio Nusa
1 goal and 3 assists for RB Leipzig, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 72 matches.
Goals1Assists3Per 901.6
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.