Scottish Premiership · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
2 points between St. Johnstone and safety
St. Johnstone sit 7th on 14, with Dundee United the first side above the line on 16. The model puts St. Johnstone down 93% of the time.
What is being decided1 · Celtic lead by 4
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck3 · Falkirk are 6.4 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Falkirk are 6.4 points ahead of their xG
18 points from an expected 11.6. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points18Expected11.6xG for13.6Underperforming
Hibernian are 7.0 points short of their xG
8 points from an expected 15.0. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points8Expected15.0xG for16.7Form
Falkirk have won 4 of their last 5
4th on 18 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Kilmarnock v Aberdeen
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Kilmarnock v Aberdeen
11th against 10th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KIL37%Draw25%ABE38%Key fixture
Dundee United v Motherwell
6th against 9th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
DUD35%Draw27%MOT38%Key fixture
St. Mirren v Falkirk
8th against 4th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
STM38%Draw28%FAL34%
The people who decide it3 · Camilo Durán
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Camilo Durán
3 goals and 2 assists for Celtic, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 69 matches.
Goals3Assists2Per 901.6Player
Kevin Kelsy
3 goals and 0 assists for Rangers, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 69 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.4Player
Dylan Tait
1 goal and 2 assists for Dundee United, 1.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 69 matches.
Goals1Assists2Per 901.1
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.