Belgian Pro League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Level at the top
Union St.Gilloise (16) from Gent (16) with 28 matchweeks left. The model gives Union St.Gilloise 53%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between OH Leuven and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Gent are 4.9 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Gent are 4.9 points ahead of their xG
16 points from an expected 11.1. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points16Expected11.1xG for7.0Underperforming
Cercle Brugge are 4.7 points short of their xG
3 points from an expected 7.7. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points3Expected7.7xG for10.3Form
Union St.Gilloise have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 16 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Gent have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 16 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W DPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · OH Leuven v RAAL La Louvière
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
OH Leuven v RAAL La Louvière
17th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
OHL39%Draw27%RAA34%Key fixture
OH Leuven v KV Mechelen
17th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
OHL41%Draw27%KVM32%Key fixture
Kortrijk v KV Mechelen
18th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KOR36%Draw28%KVM36%
The people who decide it3 · Samed Baždar
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Samed Baždar
4 goals and 0 assists for St.Truiden, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 54 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.5Player
Mateo Biondic
1 goal and 4 assists for Union St.Gilloise, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 54 matches.
Goals1Assists4Per 901.4Player
Besfort Zeneli
2 goals and 3 assists for Union St.Gilloise, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 54 matches.
Goals2Assists3Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.