Belgian Pro League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Club Brugge (27) from Union St.Gilloise (26) with 24 matchweeks left. The model gives Club Brugge 28%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Cercle Brugge and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Club Brugge are 7.3 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Club Brugge are 7.3 points ahead of their xG
27 points from an expected 19.7. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points27Expected19.7xG for25.5Underperforming
St.Truiden are 7.7 points short of their xG
8 points from an expected 15.7. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points8Expected15.7xG for21.4Form
Club Brugge have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 27 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Union St.Gilloise have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 26 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W D W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Union St.Gilloise v Genk
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Union St.Gilloise v Genk
2nd against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
UNI42%Draw28%GEK30%Key fixture
Cercle Brugge v KV Mechelen
17th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CER43%Draw29%KVM28%Key fixture
Union St.Gilloise v Gent
2nd against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
UNI46%Draw29%GEN26%
The people who decide it3 · Nicolò Tresoldi
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Nicolò Tresoldi
4 goals and 1 assist for Club Brugge, 2.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 89 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 902.7Player
Freddy Mbemba
1 goal and 2 assists for Sporting Charleroi, 1.9 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 89 matches.
Goals1Assists2Per 901.9Player
Frédéric Soèllé Soèllé
0 goals and 2 assists for St.Truiden, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 89 matches.
Goals0Assists2Per 901.8
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.