Ekstraklasa · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
1 point between Motor Lublin and safety
Motor Lublin sit 16th on 5, with Śląsk Wrocław the first side above the line on 6. The model puts Motor Lublin down 46% of the time.
What is being decided2 · A 5-point cushion at the top
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Projection
A 5-point cushion at the top
Górnik Zabrze (21) from Legia Warszawa (16) with 26 matchweeks left. The model gives Górnik Zabrze 46%.
Górnik Zabrze21Legia Warszawa16Games left26Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Zagłębie Lubin hold 4th on 15; Wisła Kraków are 5th on 14.
Zagłębie Lubin15Wisła Kraków14Games left26
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Wisła Kraków are 5th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Wisła Kraków are 5th in their first season up
14 points from 8 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 2%.
Position5thPoints14Relegation risk2%Overperforming
Górnik Zabrze are 6.7 points ahead of their xG
21 points from an expected 14.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points21Expected14.3xG for13.5Underperforming
Motor Lublin are 5.9 points short of their xG
5 points from an expected 10.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points5Expected10.9xG for13.6Form
Górnik Zabrze have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 21 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition1stForm
Lech Poznań have won 4 of their last 5
3rd on 16 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W LPosition3rd
Games that move the table3 · Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznań
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznań
2nd against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LEG34%Draw26%LEC40%Key fixture
Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin
14th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
RAD46%Draw23%MOT31%Key fixture
Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław
16th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MOT47%Draw23%LSK30%
The people who decide it3 · Jordi Sánchez
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Jordi Sánchez
2 goals and 1 assist for Wisła Kraków, 1.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 69 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.1Player
Ilya Shkurin
3 goals and 0 assists for GKS Katowice, 1.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 69 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.0Player
Rafał Wolski
2 goals and 0 assists for Radomiak Radom, 0.9 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 69 matches.
Goals2Assists0Per 900.9
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.