Ekstraklasa · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
Lech Poznań (31) from Górnik Zabrze (28) with 21 matchweeks left. The model gives Lech Poznań 67%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Wieczysta Kraków and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Wisła Kraków are 7th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Wisła Kraków are 7th in their first season up
21 points from 13 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 1%.
Position7thPoints21Relegation risk1%Overperforming
Piast Gliwice are 8.7 points ahead of their xG
21 points from an expected 12.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points21Expected12.3xG for18.0Underperforming
Wieczysta Kraków are 8.3 points short of their xG
8 points from an expected 16.3. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points8Expected16.3xG for21.9Form
Lech Poznań have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 31 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Pogoń Szczecin have won 5 of their last 5
4th on 24 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Cracovia v Widzew Łódź
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Cracovia v Widzew Łódź
13th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CRA47%Draw28%WID25%Key fixture
GKS Katowice v Lech Poznań
5th against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GKS29%Draw24%LEC47%Key fixture
Korona Kielce v Cracovia
10th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KOR38%Draw29%CRA33%
The people who decide it3 · Pablo Rodríguez
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Pablo Rodríguez
2 goals and 4 assists for Lech Poznań, 2.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 22 of 112 matches.
Goals2Assists4Per 902.5Player
Yannick Agnero
3 goals and 0 assists for Lech Poznań, 1.6 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.1. Over the last 22 of 112 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.6Player
Bartosz Nowak
4 goals and 1 assist for GKS Katowice, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 22 of 112 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.